In depth comparison of team statistics
This includes yards/play, efficiency stats, individual statistics, special teams, turnover ratio, strength of schedule, etc.
A mathematical system that helps predict what the line/total should be. I input multiple variables, most of which I have developed and are not public information. If my predicted line differs from the current line (must be greater or equal to a 1.8 difference to be statistically significant) then this is a play. The bigger the difference, the stronger the play.
I have a database of hundreds of NFL trends (many which are greater than 80%) that Byeweekpicks has been developing over years. These trends are not retrospective, meaning that I do not go back and look at past statistics to see what fit and then develop the trends (these trends can be misleading). Instead, I first develop the trend based on patterns that I have noticed and study them throughout the years (also known as a prospective study). Many trends date back to the 1980's and are specific to the NFL. I focus on league wide trends that have a fundamental reason why they work. For example, NFL home dogs after a blowout loss (24+) are great against the spread the following week because the public undervalues them,hence the line is inflated.
This comes in to play very often in the NFL. For example if a team is 0-4 and has not covered yet this is a good situational play.
1st Half Wagers
The market place can be tough to beat, but 1st half wagers (specifically totals) are more exploitable. I have been increasing my focus on this the last few years and it has been extremely profitable.