Methods

In depth comparison of team statistics

 This includes yards/play, efficiency stats, individual statistics, special teams, turnover ratio, strength of schedule, etc.

 

Byeweekpicks Algorithm

A mathematical system that helps predict what the line/total should be.  I input multiple variables, most of which I have developed and are not public information.  If my predicted line differs from the current line (must be greater or equal to a 1.8 difference to be statistically significant) then this is a play.  The bigger the difference, the stronger the play.

 

NFL Trends

I have a database of hundreds of NFL trends (many which are greater than 80%) that Byeweekpicks has been developing over years.  These trends are not retrospective, meaning that I do not go back and look at past statistics to see what fit and then develop the trends (these trends can be misleading).  Instead, I first develop the trend based on patterns that I have noticed and study them throughout the years (also known as a prospective study).  Many trends date back to the 1980's and are specific to the NFL.  I focus on league wide trends that have a fundamental reason why they work.  For example, NFL home dogs after a blowout loss (24+) are great against the spread the following week because the public undervalues them,hence the line is inflated.

 

Situational Factors

This comes in to play very often in the NFL.  For example if a team is 0-4 and has not covered yet this is a good situational play.

1st Half Wagers

The market place can be tough to beat, but 1st half wagers (specifically totals) are more exploitable.  I have been increasing my focus on this the last few years and it has been extremely profitable.