Week  7

 

 

1*:  .66-.75 Unit

2*:  1 Unit

3*:  1.3-1.5 Units

4*:  1.5-1.66 Units

5*:  2+ Units

 

Line listed is the consensus line when game is posted, and these will be what I use for my record.  View individual write ups for specific star changes if the line is different.

 

 

 

 

2* Detroit/New Orleans under 50.5

Game posted on Monday. I would bet this ASAP because I think it will close 47-48.

WINNER

The Lions have a lot of fancy names on offense, but their offense is struggling and the defense has been dominant.  Detroit has the best D in the league by efficiency ratings (3rd vs run and 1st vs pass).  They are allowing a league low 4.5 YPP.  The Saints' defense is bad, but as stated above the Lions won't be able to capitalize because of their poor offense who looks like it will be missing C. Johnson.  The Saints' offense also has been struggling this year and it looks like J. Graham won't be playing this week.  My calculated total on this game is 44.5!  The fact that the line plummeted from the opener is a good sign that the books made an error on the opening line.

 

2* K.C. +4 over S.D.

Play at 4+

WINNER

As of Tuesday some books have 4 and some have 4.5.  I am waiting to wager on this.

The Chiefs are a boring team, so they don't get much pub but they are solid.  On the flip side, the Chargers have won 5 in a row and are a trendy pick to challenge in the AFC.  No doubt the Chargers pass offense is among the top in the league, but their run game is nil (29th in efficiency).  The Charger's defense is average allowing 5.4 YPP and 17th in rushing/18th in passing.  KC's offense is pretty good (16th in rushing and 12th in passing efficency).  SD has played the second easiest schedule to date and they are +5 in fumbles.  Once a ball is fumbled, the team that recovers it is strictly luck (the team that wins the TO battle is 76% ATS).  There is a very strong trend on KC that is 72-33 ATS that plays on dogs off a bye and a loss.  My calculated line is SD-2.5.  I think the Chiefs have a great chance to get the win and I am going to wager 25% of my straight play on the money line.

 

2* N.Y. Giants +7 (-120) over Dallas

1* Play at 6+

As of Wednesday consensus is 6.5 with extra juice on Dallas.  I recommend buying half if you can get at -120 or less.

This is a classic NFL situational play!  The Cowboys are coming off a big underdog straight up winner, while the Giants are coming off an embarrassing shutout division prime time loss.  This leads to over reaction and an inflated line.  My calculated line on this game is Dallas -4.8.  If you listen to the talking heads, they are talking about how good the Cowboy's defense is, but they are allowing 6.1 YPP (second to last in NFL) and are 30th in run defense.  Their run game has been strong, but the Giants D has been pretty good (17th vs run and 7th vs the pass).  There are two GREAT trends favoring the G men.  One is 113-58 ATS (66%) playing on teams off shut out loss and 2 other factors.  Another is 98-46 ATS playing on teams that lost ATS by 21 (plus other factors).

 

1* Oakland over Ariz

Play at 3+

As of Tuesday consensus line is 3.5

This is a great situation for the Raiders.  Winless home dogs versus non division opponents have shown to be very profitable in the NFL.  The Arizona D that was so good last year has been allowing 6 YPP this year.  And their offense has been below average (17th in passing efficiency and 32nd in rushing efficiency).  They average only 4.9 YPP, so they are -1.1 yards/play differential, which is 2nd to last in the NFL.  They have benefited from being +8 in turnovers and they have yet to throw an interception this year (a stat that will obviously not last).  Give me the Raiders!

 

1* Miami over Chicago

Play at 3.5+

As of Wednesday consensus line is 3.5

WINNER

I think Miami is one of the most underrated teams in the league (along with KC).  Miami's run offense is 6th (efficiency rating) and will be facing a Bears D that is 18th versus the run.  The Phins D is one of the best in the league; 6th vs the run and 11th vs the pass.  They only allow 4.7 yards/play (2nd in league).  Contrary to the Bears who allow 5.9 yards/play (22nd).  My calculated line is Chicago -2.5, so getting over a FG is a great value play.  I have a strong 132-61 ATS trend against the Bears because of their dog road win last week and poor defense.