1*: .66-.75 Unit
2*: 1 Unit
3*: 1.3-1.5 Units
4*: 1.5-1.66 Units
5*: 2+ Units
Line listed is the consensus line when game is posted, and these will be what I use for my record. View individual write ups for specific star changes if the line is different.
2* Miami +3.5 over Green Bay
I think Miami is grossly under valued in the market place and GB is over valued because of their name/past years and their star players. The Packers strength is their passing game (6th in passing efficiency), but the Phins pass D is pretty good (11th in pass efficiency defense). GB won't be able to run the ball because Miami's run D is 5th in run defense efficiency. Miami's running game is their strength (5th in running efficiency) and face a GB run defense that is 23rd in the league. GB leads the league in turnover ratio (+6) which has made them look better than they actually are. My calculated line is a pick em' so getting over a FG is a great play here. I also have a 104-71 ATS trend favoring the Phins based on their bye week and GB's blowout loss last week. Miami's lack of flash is giving them great line value here!
2* Buffalo +3 over NE
Play at +3 or better
This is a classic example to an overreaction. After NE's performance in KC everyone thought they were terrible and the line move reflected that as they closed 3 point dogs at home. Now, after their blowout win vs. the Bengals people think they are back to the "old" Patriots...but I don't. Truth is, they aren't as bad as they looked in KC, but not as good as they looked last week. What they are is a below average team. This line implies that the Pats are 6 points better than the Bills...no way. The Pats offense is terrible; 22nd in rushing and 23rd in passing (efficiency rating). Buffalo's offense is just as bad, but I think Orton is an upgrade and as long as he eliminates EJ's mistakes the Bills D is good enough to compete. Ironically, NE's D has been their strength, but their run D is bad (22nd) which will allow Buffalo to run the ball effectively. Buffalo is a top 5 D that is 3rd vs the run and 9th vs the pass. My calculated line is Buff +1 so the value is on the dog!
1* NYG +3 over Phil
I have been waiting to bet against the Eagles for the last few weeks and not I finally have the opportunity. The Eagles have scored 7 TD's on defensive/special teams...this is not going to last. The Eagles dominant offense last year is sputtering this year; they are 28th in rushing and 19th in passing. Defensively, their run D is pretty good (8th), but their pass D is very bad (28th). Conversely, the Giants have improved every week and their offense is 14th and 17th in rushing and passing efficiency, respectively. The Giants D is much better than the Eagles; they are 12th vs the rush and 8th vs the pass. My calculated line is NYG +0.5. There is a very good 152-75 ATS trend favoring the Giants. G-Men!!
1* NE/Buff Under 45
See analysis above. Both offenses are sub par and both defenses are very good. Also, NE's weakness is their running D so the Bills will focus on the run and eat up the clock...always good for the under.