Week 7

1*: .66-.75 Unit

2*: 1 Unit

3*: 1.3-1.5 Units

4*: 1.5-1.66 Units

5*: 2+ Units

Line listed is the consensus line when game is posted, and these will be what I use for my record. View individual write ups for specific star changes if the line is different.

2* Indy +14 Over New Orleans

2* At +14 or higher

1* At +13 or higher

This line is inflated because of the common misconception that good teams bounce back after a favorite loss (New Orleans), but this is simply not true. In fact, NFL home favorites of more than 13 points are just 16-42-2 ATS the week after a loss, including 5-30-2 ATS after losing as a favorite. Primarily because the line is inflated in these games. My math system has the line at Saints -10. The Saints are also not the prolific team that they have been in recent years. Their pass game has been strong (6th in YPPA), but their rush game averages only 4.1 YPr (20th). Defensively, they are poor as they are almost dead last in rushing D (5.1 YPR, 29th in NFL) and 12th in YPPA. They have given up over 25 PPG versus teams that have averaged 22 PPG. The Saints also lost their center this week (abruptly retired) and this is a huge blow. ESPN makes us think that the "sexy" positions such as RB and WR are the most important, but the game is won and lost in the trenches of the offensive and defensive lines. Obviously, the Colts aren't a powerhouse as they are 0-6, but they have been showing life as of late. There is also a great 52-21 ATS trend favoring the Colts based on their winless record. Take the Colts in this game!

NO 62 IND 7

Really not much to say about this...Indy got their butts kicked. Simply on the wrong side of this game. Still, remember since 1989 double digit dogs are 53% ATS, so this is not a reason to change your betting strategy based on one bad play.

1* Jax +10 over Balt

WINNER

Baltimore is one of the best teams in the league, but they are in a poor scheduling position here. The Jags are off a road game, then have 3 consecutive road games next which puts them in a good position Monday night. Baltimore's D is very good (3rd in pass and run), but their offense is overrated. They are average rushing (4.2 YPR, 16th) and passing (7.4 YPPA). The Jags struggle offensively, but have a solid defense allowing only 6.9 YPPA (9th) and they are 15th versus run. There is a great 104-63-2 ATS trend favoring the Jags based on Balt being a big road fav. Give me a big home dog with a solid D on Monday night anyday!

JAX 12 Balt 6

The cover was never in doubt in this game. Balt didn't get a first down until midway through the 3rd quarter. Have to love taking a double digit dog and they win outright!

1* Minnesota +10 over G.B.

WINNER

Have to take the line value in this game. The only reason this isn't a 3* is because it's Ponder's first start. Barring pick 6's Ponder can't play worse than McNabb, so I don't think it's worth 3 points. Green Bay is overvalued because the public likes betting offenses and GB's is good. But their D stinks, they are 16th versus the rush and 23rd versus the pass. Also, they have no rushing attack (27th in NFL). Minnesota is going to pound the run (3rd in NFL) and be able to stop the Pack (5th versus run and 17th versus pass). Minne is off a divisional blowout loss and bounce back here. I think Ponder gives them a spark in the locker room and I actually think they will compete for the straight up win in this game.

GB 33 MIN 27

I got a lot of flack before this game about taking a back up QB versus a "great" team. Ponder threw 2 picks and Minne was still in this game until the end. This game was statistically even (7 YPP vs 6.7 YPP). Definately on the right side on this one. GB vastly overrated.