Week 6
1*: .66-.75 Unit
2*: 1 Unit
3*: 1.3-1.5 Units
4*: 1.5-1.66 Units
5*: 2+ Units
Line listed is the consensus line when game is posted, and these will be what I use for my record. View individual write ups for specific star changes if the line is different.
4* N.Y. Giants -3 over Buffalo
4* at -3 or better
PUSH
I love the G-Men in this game! Buffalo may be 4-1, but they are still a below average team statistically. They are an amazing +11 in turnovers which is a huge part why they are winning games. Turnovers are 75% luck, meaning that this should regress to the mean. The Bills have not lost 1 fumble this year yet and have averaged over 2 INT's per game; both are unlikely to continue. The Bills are off a big home dog win versus Philly. Don't let the score fool you, Philly outplayed the Bills. They outgained Buffalo 8.2 to 5.3 yards/play (this would usually equates to more than an 14 point victory). The reason for the Bills win was a +4 turnover ratio. Conversely, the Giants lost to Seattle at home last week but they outgained them by 1.2 yards/play but lost the turnover battle and the Hawks had a pick 6. Buffalo's D is poor. They are dead last in rushing D allowing 5.5 YPR and 19th in pass D allowing 7.6 YPPA. This will allow the G Men to get their running game on track. Manning is an impressive 3rd in the NFL averaging 9.1 YPPA. The Giants D allows 7.6 YPPA (19th) and 4,1 YPR (16th). The Bills offense is slightly above average at 4th in YPR and 19th in YPPA. I don't see the Giants losing back to back home games especially off a loss as a 9 point favorite. If the G Men don't get killed with turnovers (which no one can predict) they win this game easily. This was almost a 5* play, but will remain a 4* play.
NYG 27 Buff 24
The Giants were on the half yard line with 2 minutes left and couldn't punch it in for the spread cover. As expected the Bills had a couple turnovers and tried to hand the game to the G Men, but NY couldn't take control.
3* Tampa Bay +4.5 over New Orleans
WINNER
3* at +4.5 or better
2* at +4 or better
1* at +3 or better
New Orleans is overvalued at this point. They are 11th in rushing and 8th in passing. Defensively, they are poor at 29th against the run and 14th versus the pass. They are on their 3rd consecutive road game. Teams on their 3rd road game are 63-106-1 ATS if won first 2 games (as the Saints did). The Bucs apply to a subset of this trend that is 68-27 ATS. The Bucs are coming off a blowout loss which sets them up for an 85-44 ATS trend. I think the Bucs get the straight up victory here and would wager 0.2 units on the money line (in addition to 1.5 unitS on the spread).
TB 26 NO 20
The cover was never in question here and the Bucs got the W as a 6.5 point dog (closing number)!!! Too easy!!!
1* Dallas +7 over New England
WINNER
1* at +7 or better
New England's D is pathetic. They allow 4.6 YPR (21st) and are 30th versus the pass (YPPA). Dallas will put up points as their offense has been above average this year. It's no secret the Pats offense is very good (7th in rushing,1st in passing). But, Dallas is the best rushing D in the league at 3.1 YPR and 9th in YPPA. Dallas is off a bye and has gotten healthier. I think this is going to be a shootout and give me the 7 points in any shootout. Remember, the line is set based on public perception, and the public love offense and the Pats...take advantage of the inflated line.
NE 17 Dal 13
Dallas outplayd the Pats as predicted, but Brady was too good at the end and drove the Pats down for a last minute drive. But the Boys got the only win that matters...the cover!
