Super Bowl XLVI
1*: .66-.75 Unit
2*: 1 Unit
3*: 1.3-1.5 Units
4*: 1.5-1.66 Units
5*: 2+ Units
Line listed is the consensus line when game is posted, and these will be what I use for my record. View individual write ups for specific star changes if the line is different.
2* NYG +3 over NE
WINNER
BWP is 5-0 in the last 5 Bowls…let's keep it going! You will hear this game analyzed to death, but I'm going to make this simple…the Giants are the better team and will win the game. And they are getting points! Let's start on the offensive side of the ball. During the regular season the Giants only averaged 3.5 YPR, but in the post season they are averaging 4.2 YPR and 117 YPG. In the air, Eli was 3rd in the NFL averaging 8.4 YPPA. It's no secret that Brady is good and he averaged 8.6 YPPA. The Pats run O is poor (24th in YPR during the regular season). There is no doubt that the media overanalyzes injuries and overreacts. But, the Gronkowski injury is significant because of the match up problems it creates. He will play but insiders tell me the high ankle sprain will have him limited to about 60-70%. Defensively there is no doubt that the Giants are far superior. On paper, the Giants actually aren't that spectacular defensively, but if you watch them they are dynamic. And, the last 5 games they have been playing lights out. NE allows 4.6 YPR and an astounding 8 YPPA. The Pats have played 15 players as DB's this year! They are so poor they are going to have a 5'10" (in Timberlands) wide receiver (Edelman) covering a Giants WR (probably Manningham)…I like those odds. G MEN!!!!!!
NYG 21 NE 17
BWP's 6th straight Super Bowl winner!!! This game could not have gotten any tighter as both teams averaged 5.6 YPP. But, the G men played a better defensive game and Eli played better than Brady. WINNER!!!
Proposition Bets
Note:I wager a small amount on prop bets, so they won't be counted toward record
Team to receive opening kickoff: NYG (-170)
WINNER
The pats have deferred the last 28 times they won the coin toss. The Giants have chosen to receive 7 out of the last 9 times they won the toss.
NYG to score first
WINNER
The stats tell us the NE will defer if they win the toss and the Giants will take the ball. Even if the Giants don't score on the first drive they still are at an advantage to score first (will get the ball 1st,3rd,etc.).
NE rush yards under 105.5
WINNER
Manningham over 3 receptions (-160)
WINNER
In big games the second and third receivers tend to have bigger games.
Nicks over 5.5 receptions
WINNER
Cruz under 88.5 yards receiving (+120)
WINNER
The Pats are going to blanket Cruz and might give him some under routes, but I feel he goes under the 88.5 yards.
Jarvis Green Ellis longest rush attempt under 12 yards (+120)
He doesn't have break away ability. Longest run of year 18 yards.
Under 11 penalties by both teams
WINNER
Both of these teams are disciplined and will be extra careful in big game.
Under 1.5 fumbles lost (-170)
WINNER
I love this prop! I actually bet this as a 1* play. It is fumbles LOST. When the ball is fumbled, 50% of the time the team that fumbles recovers the ball, so this already puts you at an advantage for the under.
NE to win coin toss
WINNER
NFC has won 14 Super Bowl coin toss' in a row. The odds of this are less than .005% Every event is independent, but when you take the overall odds they are astronomical that this will continue.
Long shot props:
First player to score- Branch +1500
First player to score- Manningham +1200
These are just fun props to root for. As stated above, often it is not the marquee receiver to have big games.
