2007-2008 Season Review

Overall '07-'08

42-27-2 (61%)

Units

+14.7

Super System

41-22 (65%)

This was a great year for Bye Week Picks. After a very rough start I made a great comeback to have another profitable season. After week 8 Bye Week Picks was 12-17-1 and -3.2 units. Since that point I was 30-10-1 to finish the season at 42-27-2 (61%) and +14.7 units. If you bet 6% of your bank roll each game (like Bye Week Picks) you have gotten a 90% return on your money, nearly doubling your investment in just 21 weeks! My Super System did very well this year going 41-22 (65%). To cap off the season I had a winner on the N.Y. Giants plus the points and on the money line. I hope you enjoyed my analysis and picks and I will work hard on the off season to come back with a bigger 2008 season!

Byeweekpicks had a very profitable year hitting 57% of our picks and going 10-6 (63%) on our best bets. Our personal regular season record was 31-21-3 (60%), but what makes the Hilton Contest so tough is that you are forced to take five games and you must have a little luck when you are picking two games a week that you don't like (and we just didn't have luck this year). The postseason was profitable as well, as we went 4-2 including a Top Pick (3*) winner on the Colts in the Super Bowl. It was a great season and we hope you made some money following some of our picks and enjoyed our information. Byeweekpicks has worked hard in the offseason to study our trends and our supersystem to come back with an even bigger year in 2007-2008.

Mission

First of all, Byeweekpicks is not a "tout service" trying to sell you picks. My goal is to provide you with weekly NFL picks including detailed analysis of these games. I focus only on the NFL because to master handicapping you have to concentrate on one area. You will never hear Byeweekpicks say "lock of the year" or "guaranteed" because there is no such thing in sports betting. You will also never hear me boast about our record if I cannot prove it. Every game will be posted so you can follow my record throughout the seasons. What I will do is provide you with free quality picks using my extensive research. We do the work so you can take a bye week!

Method

1) In depth comparison of team statistics: This includes yards per game, individual statistics, special teams, turnover ratio, strength of schedule, etc.

2) Byeweekpicks Supersystem: A mathematical system that helps predict what the line should be. If the Vegas odds are different than the line developed (must be greater or equal to a 4.3 difference to be statistically significant) then this is a good play (starts in week 5).

3) NFL Trends: I have a database of hundreds of NFL trends (many which are greater than 80%) that Byeweekpicks has been developing over years. These trends are not retrospective, meaning that I do not go back and look at past statistics to see what fit and then develop the trends (these trends can be misleading). Instead, I first develop the trend based on patterns that I have noticed and study them throughout the years (also known as a prospective study). Many trends date back to the 1980's and are specific to the NFL. I will only provide you with the best team trends, because many times these do not correlate with future events. Teams change, players change, coaches change, but the NFL stays the same.

4) Situational Factors: This comes in to play very often in the NFL. For example if a team is 0-4 and has not covered yet this is a good situational play.

5) Intuition: This is one of the most important factors. I can crunch numbers until I am blue in the face, but I know the league so well that this plays a major role in my picks. So often in the NFL the better team doesn't win, and it's recognizing these patterns that helps me pick winners.

2008-2009 Season Review

2008-2009 Record

39-24-3 (62%)

Units

+16.7 Units

This was Byeweekpocks best year to date! Byeweekpicks' final record was 39-24-3 (62%). I was +16.7 units for the year and if you bet 6% of you bankroll per unit you doubled your money this year!!! The year was capped by a win on Arizona in the Super Bowl (now 3-0 on Super Bowl picks). Byeweekpicks has been improving each year and I will continue to work hard in the offseason to perfect my methods.

2009-2010 Season Review

Record

37-24-4 (61%)

Units

+16.3

The season didn't start well as I began 1-7 after week 4, but what a comeback! Byeweekpicks finished the year at 37-24-4 for a great 61%. BWP was + 16.3 units on the year meanting that you doubled your bankroll if you wagered 6% per unit..all we did this year was sit back and watch the green grow like the grass wet.

2011 Regular Season Review

It was a bitter sweet year for BWP. Although my record was great (58%) I hit my smaller bets and lost my bigger bets. I added strong opinions to my plays this year because there are many games I like, but not strong enough to make a * play. These games fall into 2 categories: a gut play that I like just from knowing the NFL so well, or a strong trend play but the "eye test" tells me it isn't a * play. I personally wager 0.5 units on these play, but it is the player choice. I still grinded out a small profit (+0.7 units) and heading into the playoffs I am red hot...6-2-1 in last 9. The push was on Seattle week 16 (which was a win if bet early in week) and a loss on Miami week 17 (which was a backdoor cover by NYJ and a push if you bet it early or late). I have had too many bad beats to count this year and am -40 in turnovers in my losses. The bad beats will happen in wagering, but over a large sample size (over 250 games) they should even out. I am looking to finish strong in the post season!