Wildcard
Week: 1-2
Overall: 36-24-2
+15.3 Units
1*: .66-.75 Unit
2*: 1 Unit
3*: 1.3-1.5 Units
4*: 1.5-1.66 Units
5*: 2+ Units
Line listed is the consensus line when game is posted, and these will be what I use for my record. View individual write ups for specific star changes if the line is different.
2* Green Bay +1 over Arizona
In the playoffs, it's notthe best team that wins, but the team playing the best. GB has won 7 of their last 8 (only loss was in last second at the Steelers) and their D has been dominant. They are first in the league in rushing D and 5th in passing D. A. Rogers has been playing well and will eat up the Cards pass d that is 23rd in the NFL. The Cards rush D is just as bad allowing 4.5 YPR (24th). I don't take much stock into last weeks game becuase the Cards didn't play their starters the entire game, but I see the Pack winning this one.
Ari 51 GB 45
Like Al Pacino said in "Two For the Money" (which would have been so much better if it was about BWP), this was a loss that "made your asshole pucker to the size of a decimal point". You talk about highs and lows...wow. The stats of this game were nearly identical except one of the most important which is turnovers (GB 3 versus Arizona 1). Because the NFL is like the WWE and like to keep the game close for the viewing audiences pleasure I didn't really think the Packers had a shot until we got the ball in OT. Rogers missed a wide open Jennings that would have went for a TD. Then, (here comes the decimal point part) Rogers fumbled and Arizona returned it for a TD (there was also a controversial no call on what appeared to be a face mask penalty on the Arizona defender on Rogers)....dark. Thats sports betting for you, all you can do is look past it and keep picking winners next week.
1* Dallas -3.5 vs. Philadelphia
WINNER
Dallas is tired of hearing that they can't win in December and have been playing well. Whenever the media/public begins talking about a stat or trend the opposite usually happens. Dallas will run easily on the Eagles D as they are averaging 4.8 YPR (2nd). Romo has been playing very good as of late and will continue this against an Eagle pass D that is 17th in the league. Dallas finally gets a playoff win here.
Dal 34 Phi 14
Dallas owned Philly this game...easy pickens!
1* N.E. -3 over Balt
Baltimore is 1-7 versus playoff teams this year and Brady hasn't lost at home since November 2006...'nuff said.
Balt 33 NE 14
I am kicking myself because I fell into a public trap. I knew Baltimore was the superior team but I fell into thinking the the Pats were the same Pats...boy was I wrong.
Cinci versus N.Y. Jets-No Opinion
This game is too close to call. Both defenses are very good, but the Jets is a little better. The Jets are 8th and first against the run and pass, respectively. While the Bengals are 7th and 6th. On the offensive side of the ball the Jets are tops in the league in rushing with 172 YPG, but second to last in passing with 149 YPG. The Bengals have similar numbers being ranked 9th and 26th in rushing and passing. I am not sure what to make of last weeks game and if the Bengals were truly showing what they have. I don't trust a rookie QB on the road in the playoffs, but I don't know how the Bengals are going to score so I am passing on this one.
