Week 9
1*: .66-.75 Unit
2*: 1 Unit
3*: 1.3-1.5 Units
4*: 1.5-1.66 Units
5*: 2+ Units
Line listed is the consensus line when game is posted, and these will be what I use for my record. View individual write ups for specific star changes if the line is different.
4* Indy +7 over Atlanta
3* at +6 or more
2* at +4 or more
I have a bold statement...I feel that Indy has a great shot at getting their first win this week. I have been writing that ATL is overrated for 3 years. They have big names, so the public backs them (thus increasing the line), but they are statistically a poor team. Unfortunately, they have been in good scheduling spots so I haven't been able to bet against them as often as I would have liked. Finally, this is a prime spot! Offensively, ATL averages 4.3 YPR (16th) and a poor 6.7 YPPA (22nd). Defensively they are solid at stopping the run (9th), but their pass D is terrible (7.9 YPPA, 25th). Indy is obviously not a good team as they are 0-8, but actually this sets them up for a strong trend. Winless teams (0-5 or worse) are 92-60-4 ATS as underdogs, including 55-28-3 ATS when facing a non-division opponent. They also apply to a 105-63 ATS trend. Indy is off 3 road games so this is a good schedule spot for them. I would wager on the money line because I think they have a strong chance for the upset! Big 4* play!!!
ATL 31 IND 7
This was simply a bad pick. Indy didn't show up.
3* San Diego +6 over Green Bay
I know you think it's crazy when I say this, but GB is overrated. Yes, they are undefeated, but they are vulnerable (which is why I took Minne 2 weeks ago against them). Their defense is very poor allowing 4.6 YPr (25th) and 7.8 YPPA (23rd). You cannot have a D that is ranked worse than 20th in both categories and continue to cover large spreads. They have no running game (25th in YPR), but obviously Rogers is playing on another level, but SD's pass D is solid (7 YPPA, 12th). With GB's poor D Diego will run effectively and pass effectively (8th YPPA). Diego will be fuming off their ugly Monday night loss and they are coming off 3 consecutive road games. So much of the line is based on what teams did last week and not their body of work (the public only remembers last week). If Rivers wouldn't had fumbled the ball (which was pure bad luck) this line would be 3. There is a great 106-62 ATS trend favoring the Chargers. I would also wager on the money line (0.2-0.3 units) because I think GB gets their first loss on Sunday.
GB 45 SD 38
Diego outplayed GB but Rivers threw 2 picks 6's that they couldn't overcome.
3* Tenn -2.5 over Cinci
3* at -3 or better
The Bengals have been a surprise this year, but they will get a loss at Tennessee this week. The Bengal's D is strong (2nd vs the run and 8th vs the pass). But their offense is pitiful averaging only 3.7 YPR (28th) and 6.8 YPPA (20th). Tennesse's run game has been struggling of late, but I think with CJ being forced to split carries this will give him a boost and he is going to have a big game. Tenn's pass game has been solid averaging 7.1 YPPA. The Bengal's won't be able to move the ball against the Titans D that is allowing 4.0 YPR and 6.5 YPPA (5th). This is also a good scheduling position for Tenn as they are on their 3rd consecutive home game. There is a solid long term trend favoring the titans that is 207-134 ATS (61%). My math system has Tenn -5 so there is some line value. The Bengals have played good on the road thus far (3-1), but it's tough for rookie QB's to win on the road…Bengal's get an L here.
CIN 24 Ten 17
Ten was up 17-7 and this looked like an easy cover, but the Bengals came back. Tenn was the right side here, but couldn't get the W.
2* Washington +3.5 over S.F.
2* at +3 or better
Teams are never as bad or as good as they looked the previous week. Nobody looked as bad as Washington last week after getting shut out last week vs Buffalo. These teams typically bounce back in a big way and the Skins qualify for a 36-15 ATS trend because of this. SF is a tough team, but will be traveling west to east and they have already won at Phi,Cin, and Det. This is a tough thing to do consistently. The Niners have benefited from a +10 turnover ratio (2nd in NFL). Remember, turnovers are 75% luck and typically do not last. Take the Skins here.
SF 19 Was 11
Wash was dead in this game. Never had a chance for cover.
1* N.Y. Jets +3 over Buffalo
WINNER
The Bills are a solid team offensively, but their D is bad as they are 27th vs the run and 20th vs the pass. The Jets are off a bye and will be ready for this divisional match up and I think they get the W here. Buffalo's offense is for real, but the Jets D is pretty good (12th v the run and 10th v the pass) and has gotten better over the past few weeks. The Jets have stated that this is a huge game for them and giving them 2 weeks to prepare is going to help tremendously. Much of the Bills success is also from their +9 turnover ratio, which usually regresses to the mean. My math system has this game as a pick 'm so there is some line value on the Jets.
NYJ 27 Buf 11
Buff got man handled...easy winner.
Strong Opinion:
Miami +6 over KC
WINNER
