Week 8

1*: .66-.75 Unit

2*: 1 Unit

3*: 1.3-1.5 Units

4*: 1.5-1.66 Units

5*: 2+ Units

Line listed is the consensus line when game is posted, and these will be what I use for my record. View individual write ups for specific star changes if the line is different.

1* K.C. +3 over S.D.

WINNER

San Diego is an overrated team and now have to travel to KC on Monday night as a 3 point road favorite…I smell upset. SD's rush D is terrible (25th in NFL,4.7 YPR) and their run offense is bad as well (4 YPR, 23rd). It will not get better with Tolbert on the bench. KC averages 4.3 YPR and will eat up Diego's poor run D and control the game. Diego's pass game is pretty good (9th YPPA), but KC's pass D is pretty good as well. This is Diego's 3rd consecutive road game. There is a solid 178-102 ATS trend favoring the Chiefs. The dogs will be barking at Arrowhead!

KC 23 SD 20

The dogs were barking in KC! Just when it looked like a push, Rivers fumbled at the 15 yd line with 45 seconds left to force the game into OT. KC got the win and cover in overtime...beautiful!

1* Seattle +3 over Cinci

1* at Seattle +1 or better

This will be a low scoring game and I like the home dog. Both defenses are good and both offenses are bad. Cinci is 7th vs the run and 4th vs the pass. Seattle allows only 3.1 YPR (best in NFL) and will force Dalton to throw the ball. Dalton has been pretty good for a rookie, but it's tough to win on the road in the NFL especially in Seattle. Cinci is off 3 consecutive wins and are ready for a loss. The Bengals are off a bye, but teams have been poor off a bye thus far (3-9 SU,4-7-1 ATS) probably due to the new collective bargaining agreement teams must have 4 consecutive days off during their bye week. This kills the teams flow. There is a 62-32 ATS trend favoring Seattle. My math system has line as a pick 'em. With the Hawks pitiful performance last week in Cleveland they will get a big comeback here. Take the Hawks here.

CIN 34 SEA 12

Seattle actually averaged 5.8 YPP versus Cinci's 4.4 YPP. This usually equates to a 10 point victory, but big plays killed Seattle. They never had the chance for the cover.

Strong Opinions:

St. Louis +14 over N.O.

WINNER

If Bradford was playing this would be a 2* on the Rams, but with Bradford injured it remains a strong opinion.

STL 31 NO 21

What an easy winner. Straigh up winner as a 14 pt dog!

Arizona +11.5 over Balt

WINNER

This is a value play. The line is inflated and should only be Balt -9. Don't know how Balt will react as losing as a DD fav so will remain strong opinion.

BAL 27 ARI 24

The line was never in question here. Ariz was up 24-6 at half...easy winner.