Let This Be Your Bye Week
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Week 5
1*: .66-.75 Unit
2*: 1 Unit
3*: 1.3-1.5 Units
4*: 1.5-1.66 Units
5*: 2+ Units
Line listed is the consensus line when game is posted, and these will be what I use for my record. View individual write ups for specific star changes if the line is different.
1* Denver +4 over S.D.
The dogs will be barking in Denver. San Diego is a sizeable fav in this game based on public perception. SD may be 3-1 they are 32nd in strength of schedule (including Min,KC,Mia). Diego averages 3.7 YPR (22nd) and 11.7 YPP (14th). Denver's run D is solid (3.7 YPR, 10th). Their pass D is weak but I think they can maintain Diego's overrated offense. Defensively, Diego is 18th in YPR allowed and 20th in YPPA. With Denver coming off a blowout loss there is a great 54-18-2 ATS trend favoring them. My line has Denver as a 2 point favorite. Take the live dog in this division matchup.
SD 29 Den 24
This was a kick in the cahones. With Denver down 2 and SD simply trying to run out the clock they completed a 40 yd pass and an unecessary roughness penalty on Denver got SD in FG position for the back door. Ouch!
1* Pittsburgh -3 over Tenn
WINNER
"The Buffalo Bookie Beater" loves the Steelers, and I agree with him! Usually, the Steelers are overvalued by the betting public (meaning that Vegas raises the line a couple points), but I think they have a fair line in this game. Also, as of Sunday morning betting is split on this game (which is rare in a Steelers game). I don't think the Steelers are going to be as good as they have in the past, but they are -10 in turnover ratio this year which is part of the reason why they are 2-2. Also, they brought in a new lineman to get Big Ben some protection. The Titans are a solid team, but I don't see how they can move the ball this week. They are dead last in rushing offense (2.8 YPR) and their strength is their passing game (surprisingly they are 3rd in the NFL at 8.7 YPPA), but the Steelers are 1st in the league allowing only 5.7 YPPA. Take Pit as a 1*.
PIT 38 TEN 17
This was easy picking. Game never in doubt.
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