Week 4

Week 4:0-2

Overall: 1-7

-3.6 units

1*: .66-.75 Unit

2*: 1 Unit

3*: 1.3-1.5 Units

4*: 1.5-1.66 Units

5*: 2+ Units

Line listed is the consensus line when game is posted, and these will be what I use for my record. View individual write ups for specific star changes if the line is different.

4* Tennessee -3 over Jax

This is a rare 4* play for byeweekpicks because this is a perfect scenario for the Titans. Tennessee is winless (0-3) and the Jags are coming off an upset against a division rival. The Titans were 13-3 last year and they have not gotten much worse in the offseason. Their rushing defense is the best in the league allowing only 2.2 YPR. They are also second in the NFL in rushing offense gaining an astounding 5.7 YPR. The Titans pass defense has been struggling allowing 8 YPPA, but the Jags are just as bad gaining only 6.1 YPPA (24th in NFL). Jacksonville has been running the ball well (5.1 YPR), but will be shut down by the Titans' smothering attach which will put extra pressure on Garrard who has been playing badly. The Jags pass D is one of the worst in the league allowing 8.2 YPPA (28th) and should help Collins get back on his feet. There are three great trends favoring the Titans including one that is 101-28 straight up playing on a situational factor based on the Jags upset last week. Those are odds I like to bet with. I love the Titans!

Jax 37 Ten 17

It just doesn't make sense. How are the Titans 0-4? They never had a chance in this game. Garrard ate the Titans D for lunch throwing for 323 yards on 27/37/ It didn't help that the Titans had 3 turnovers. This has been a weird year in the NFL...and this proves it.

1* K.C. +9 over N.Y. Giants

I know what you are thinking…how can you bet on the lowly Chiefs. But, in the NFL the better team doesn't always win and cover. The Giants are obviously the better team, but they are in a terrible situation in this game. The Giants are on their third game of a road trip and have won and covered the first two. Teams that have done this have covered less than 35% of the time in the third game. K.C. is winless and will be playing hard to get the upset in this game. The Giants run defense has been horrible this year allowing 6.1 YPR (second to last in the NFL) and should let the Chiefs move the ball eat up the clock. I like the Chiefs as a 1*.

NYG 27 KC 16

The Giants just keep winning on the road. They dominated the Chiefs gaining 430 yards versus the Chiefs 190. Never had a chance.