Week 4
1*: .66-.75 Unit
2*: 1 Unit
3*: 1.3-1.5 Units
4*: 1.5-1.66 Units
5*: 2+ Units
Line listed is the consensus line when game is posted, and these will be what I use for my record. View individual write ups for specific star changes if the line is different.
4* Cinci +3 Over Buffalo
Winner
This is one of those games where everything comes together. Buffalo is in a prime letdown spot coming off a victory as a 7 point favorite versus division rival New England, whom they haven't beat since 2003. Now, they must travel to a seemingly weaker opponent in the Bengals…I smell upset. I say seemingly because the Bengals are not a bad team. Their defense is actually one of the best in the league allowing only 6.4 YPPA (4th in NFL) and an amazing 2.9 YPR (1st in NFL). When the Bengals have the ball they will be facing a Bills D that allows 4.7 YPR (25th in the NFL) and 7.5 YPPA (12th in the NFL). Buffalo's offense is solid, but they have played poor defensive teams (including NE and KC). There is a great 71-30-2 ATS stat favoring the Bengals based on the Bills upset win last week. Cinci in a HUGE 4* play!
CIN 23 Buff 20
WOW!!!! What a 4* winner! Down 20-3 the Bengals grinded their way back to get the win. This game went just as predicted. The Bill offense was flat and only had one offensive TD. The game shouldn't have been as close as it was as the Bengals dominated statistically.
3* St. Louis +3 over Wash
3* at Rams -1 or better
I love the Rams in this showdown. The Skins may be 2-1, but they are a below average team. This is a great situational spot for the Rams. The Rams are off a blowout home loss to Balt, while the Skins are coming off a short week versus a divisional rival and face another divisional rival in Philly next week. Statistically, the Rams will run all over (8th in run offense) the poor Skins run D (27th). There are 2 strong trends favoring the Rams including a 85-42 ATS winning trend.
Wash 17 STL 10
The Rams were unexpectedly flat this game and went down big and couldnt come back.
2* Arizona +1 over N.Y. Giants
I think the Giants are getting too much respect after their win against the overrated Eagles last week. And with Zona coming off a divisional loss as a favorite they are in position for a win here. Statistically these teams are very equal. Both have solid passing games (NY 5th and Ariz 8th) and below average defenses. My line as Arizona -2 so there is definite value here. This is a great schedule position for the cards also; they are coming off 2 road games and are on the road next week. These teams have a good long term win percentage. There are multiple trends favoring the Cards including a 44-7 straight up winner.
NYG 31 Ari 27
This was an ugly loss. Arizona gave up 2 late TD's. To make matters worse the Giants fumbled the ball on their last drive and the refs made a horrible call and the Giants maintained posession. Ugly!
2* Dallas -2.5 over Detroit
Detroit is a good team, but this is a tough road test this week. With Detroit coming off a big division come back win last week I think they will be flat this week. Detroit's run game is 30th in the NFL and face a Dallas run D that is 3rd. Dallas will be able to exploit Detroit's poor run D (30th in the league) and be able to control the clock and the tempo of the game. Detroit is 3-0, but they are +6 in turnover ratio (a huge factor in victories) and this will not continue through the season. Also, they have played one of the easiest schedules thus far (TB, KC, Min). Take Dallas as a 2*.
DET 34 DAL 30
This is one of the worst losses I can recall. Dallas outgained them by 130 yards and lost primarily on turnovers including 2 pick 6's. They were up 27-3 at one point...ugly!
