Week 3

1*: .66-.75 Unit

2*: 1 Unit

3*: 1.3-1.5 Units

4*: 1.5-1.66 Units

5*: 2+ Units

Line listed is the consensus line when game is posted, and these will be what I use for my record. View individual write ups for specific star changes if the line is different.

2* Minnesota +3.5 over Detroit

WINNER

Detroit will be an above average team this year, but this line is wrong. With the Vikings coming off back to back losses and the Lions blowing out K.C. the line is inflated here. I don't think that the Vikings are a bad team, and I think coming off a disappointing loss they are in prime position for their first win here. Detroit is allowing 4.6 YPR (27th) and the Vikes rush for 5.8 YPR (3rd). I think Minne will be able to conrol the line of scrimmage and the clock. Take the Vikes as a 2* play.

Min 23 Det 26

Minne was up big and tried to give away the cover, but got it!

1* Buffalo +7.5 over N.E.

1* at +7.5 or higher

WINNER

Vegas can't make the Patriot's line high enough because of the public. It's no secret that the Pats can put up numbers on O, but let's look at their D. Their pass D has allowed an astounding 8.9 YPPA (28th in NFL) and their run D is 28th (YPR). The Bills are 2-0 and look like a solid team. The will be able to run as they have averaged over 5 YPR (2nd in league) and be able to pass against the Pats poor D. If this line does go to 10 the Bills will qualify for a 44-15 ATS trend. The dogs will be barking in Orchard Park because...no one circles the wagon like the Buffalo Bills!

Buf 35 NE 31

Straight up winner!!!