Week 3
Week: 1-3
Overall: 1-5
-2.9 units
1*: .66-.75 Unit
2*: 1 Unit
3*: 1.3-1.5 Units
4*: 1.5-1.66 Units
5*: 2+ Units
Line listed is the consensus line when game is posted, and these will be what I use for my record. View individual write ups for specific star changes if the line is different.
3* Buffalo +6 over New Orleans
I think this line is way too high for a New Orleans team whose defense not proved much this year. Buffalo is coming off a good game versus TB and on paper are a much better team than the Saints. The Bills are ranked 3rd in yards/rush and 7th in passing (YPPA). Defensively they are 8th against the rush (3.1 YPR) and 12th against the pass (6.5 YPPA). The Saints running game is pretty good at 4.5 YPR. Brees is a top notch QB, there's no denying that, but I think the Bills game will contain him to get the win. Defensively the Saints are merely average allowing 6.7 YPPA (18th). Don't let the Saints win over the Eagles fool you, this was largely a product of their +4 turnover margin. I think Buffalo is a solid team and can pull off the upset and recommend wagering a small amount on the money on this game as well.
NO 27 Buffalo 7
This score is misleading because Buffalo was in this game until the middle of the 4th quarter. They held the Saints offense in check for about 52 minutes but the problem is the game is 60 minutes.
2* Tampa Bay +7 over N.Y. Giants
I love Tampa in this game! This is a perfect situational spot for the Bucs to upsets the G Men. Tampa is off a road loss, while the Giants are off two consecutive divisional game including a last second win at Dallas in primetime. This has letdown written all over it. There are two solid situational trends favoring the Bucs. One is 209-103 ATS and the other 41-17 ATS. This early in the year you have to look at stats with a grain of salt because there have been two games to analyze. But, the Giants running game has been struggling averaging only 3.5 YPR (25th in league). Against the run they are second to last in the league averaging 6.7 YPR. Their passing offense and defense has been strong being ranked 3rd and 7th, respectively. Tampa's rushing game has been strong averaging 4.6 YPR (8th) and this will allow them to run on the Giants weak D and eat up clock. Their passing game has been average at 20th in the league. Their weak point is their pass D which is the only reason I'm not making this a 4*. The Giants are +4 in turnover which has helped them in their 2 wins. Turnovers are 85% random in the NFL so this shouldn't last. I think TB has a chance for the upset so I would recommend a small wager (0.2 units) at +250. This remains a 2* at +6.
NYG 24 TB 0
This was domination. The Bucs never had a chance. They had 5 first downs compared the the Giants 27 and 87 yards versus the Giants 400. No competition. You have to bet bad teams in the NFL at times, but wow they Bucs are really bad.
1* NE -4.5 over Atlanta
I don't think the New England will be the powerhouse they were 2 years ago. Their defense looks old and slow. But, I think Brady will lead them to a victory and cover this week coming off a division loss versus the Jets. Both of these teams stats don't look good. The Pats average only 3.6 YPR and 5.9 YPPA. On the other side of the ball they allow 4.1 YPR and 8 YPPA. Atlanta is not much better allowing 5.1 YPR (27th) and 6.8 YPPA (19th). The Hawks running game is struggling too gaining only 3.4 YPR (26th). The Falcons are +4 in turnover ratio which has helped them get a couple wins. After two home game I think Atlanta gets their first loss on the road.
NE 26 Atl 10
I didn't think the Pats would lose back to back games and they came through in this one.
1* Tennessee +3 over N.Y. Jets
I can't see Tennessee going 0-3. They still have one of the best defenses in the league. They only allow an amazing 1.9 YPR (1st in league). This will put pressure on rookie QB M. Sanchez. He may have looked strong in his first two games, but he is still a rookie and will be facing the best D in the league. The Titans running attack is 2nd in the league averaging 6.4 YPR and face a Jets D that is 12th. The Jets are coming off a huge win versus N.E. and are in a prime letdown spot. I like the Titans. It the line goes to 2.5 I would take the Titans at the money line (probably +125), but because 3 is such a key number in the NFL I would take the points if it stays at 3.
NYJ 24 Ten 17
This was a frustrating game because the Titans actually outplayed the Jets but they were -2 in turnover including two fumbles inside their own 20.
