Week 2

1*: .66-.75 Unit

2*: 1 Unit

3*: 1.3-1.5 Units

4*: 1.5-1.66 Units

5*: 2+ Units

Line listed is the consensus line when game is posted, and these will be what I use for my record. View individual write ups for specific star changes if the line is different.

Strong Opinions only week 2. I like a few games this week, but I am going to wait until the teams declare themselves before plays. Don't bet for action, bet to win !

K.C +8 over Detroit
Opinion at +7 or higher

This line is total public perception. This is simply based on KC getting blown out and Detroit being the "sexy" preseason pick. My math model has Detroit as a 3.5 point favorite only. KC's rushing offense was 4th in the league last year and there is no reason this won't continue this year. Although K.C. got beat up last week, their D was good against the run and pass (5th in YPPA) last year. Because of the Chiefs blowout loss last week they qualify for an 84-24-1 ATS trend. Only reason I am not making this an official play is because we do not know who these teams truly are yet, as we only had 60 minutes of football to assess them.

Det 48 KC 3

This is the precise reason why I don't bet week 2. There simply isn't enough time to evaluate these teams. This line looked to high, but it needed to be about 30 points higher. Detroit looks like a solid team, while KC might not win 3 games.

Atlanta +2.5 over Philadelphia

Opinion at +1 or higher

WINNER

Don't let the Philly score last weak mislead you. Their D was getting eatin' up by the Rams before half of the Rams team got hurt. This line is also based on public perception. Vegas has to set it this way because they know that the public loves Philly and will be betting on them. It's going to take a while for this Philly team to mold. I think the Falcons get the bounce back win here.

ATL 35 PHI 31

Atl came back in the 4th to get the W. I think both of these teams are overrated and I look to take advantage of this in the future.