Week 17

Week 17: 3-0

Final Regular Season: 35-22-3 (61%)

+16 units

1*: .66-.75 Unit

2*: 1 Unit

3*: 1.3-1.5 Units

4*: 1.5-1.66 Units

5*: 2+ Units

Line listed is the consensus line when game is posted, and these will be what I use for my record. View individual write ups for specific star changes if the line is different.

1* Chicago -3 over Detroit

WINNER

As you guys know I rarely bet road favs, but I like Chicago in this contest. They are going to play off their momentum with their big win against Minne last week. Cutler is going to eat up the Lions D that is last in the league giving up 265 YPG. I see blowout city!

1* Oakland +11 over Baltimore

WINNER

Don't be fooled by the idea that the team "has to win" to get in the playoffs will play better than expected. On the contrary, over the last 19 years teams that are mathematically eliminated are 83-50-4 against the spread versus teams that must win to keep their playoff hopes alive! This is because the line is inflated (this line should be 7-8) and the team that needs to win plays tight while the team that has been eliminated plays with nothing to lose. Oakland has beaten Philly, Cinci, Pitt, and Denver so they have the ability for the upset. The Raiders would love to knock the Ravens out of the playoffs (like they did last year versus Tampa on the last game of the year).

1* Clev -2 over Jax

WINNER

Cleveland is on a roll and I think they continue here agains a Jags team that can't win in the cold.