Week 16

1*: .66-.75 Unit

2*: 1 Unit

3*: 1.3-1.5 Units

4*: 1.5-1.66 Units

5*: 2+ Units

Line listed is the consensus line when game is posted, and these will be what I use for my record. View individual write ups for specific star changes if the line is different.

1* Chicago +11.5 over GB

This is a value play. The weather is going to be terrible in GB and I like the big points here. There is a 75-32 ATS trend favoring Chi bc they were blownout last week.

2* Seattle +2 over SF

PUSH

You are probably wondering why an 11-3 team is only a 2 point favorite. The reason is that Vegas had to shade this down bc they know all the betting syndicates will jump on Seattle (and have bc the line started at 3). Seattle is hot right now (won and covered 3 in a row), and I think they continue it here. SF is coming off a huge win Monday and is on only 5 days rest. One of the best trends in my database favors Seattle and is 40-16 ATS based on Seattles recent wins.

2* Jax +7.5 over Tenn

WINNER

Tenn doesn't deserve to be a TD fav vs the Jags with a good D. The Jags apply to a great 54-19 ATS trend due to their last game being a blowout loss.

2* NYG +3 over NY Jets

WINNER

These teams are statistically similar, give me the 3 points on a shared home field. Dogs off SU loss as a 6 point fav or more (NYG) are 148-92 ATS...gimme the G Men.

1* Phil pick over Dal

WINNER

If NYG wins (which I think they will) Dallas will not be playing for anything and they should rest most of their players which would obviousl give Philly a huge advantage. There is a strong 65-32 ATS trend favoring Philly. Philly is playing for pride and is playing loose...give me the Eagles.

Strong Opinions:

Detroit -2 over SD

WINNER

The best trend in my database favors Detroit (19-2 ATS), but I'm not going to make them an official play bc SD is red hot.

Min +7 over Was

WINNER

Was shouldnt be favored vs anyone by a TD and they are coming of a huge div win.