Week 15

1*: .66-.75 Unit

2*: 1 Unit

3*: 1.3-1.5 Units

4*: 1.5-1.66 Units

5*: 2+ Units

Line listed is the consensus line when game is posted, and these will be what I use for my record. View individual write ups for specific star changes if the line is different.

NO MONDAY NIGHT PLAY

2* Denver +8 over NE

This line is absurd to me. It started at NE -4.5 and is now -8. I don't think this is true sharp money coming in. I think there is going to be a big buy back before game time, so I would get this in while it is above 7. The fact that NE was -7 at Washington and is a bigger fav at Denver makes no sense. Do you think Washington is better than Denver? The Tebow phenomenon is interesting. I have never seen such a dichotomy of opinions. Let me say that I am not fully drinking the kool aid, but I am looking at it objectively. He is not a great passer completing less than 50% of his passes, but he runs the ball effectively and most importantly he does not turn the ball over. As I have stated before, turnovers are one of the most important keys to winning or losing (if you are +1 on TO's you win approx 75% of the time, this goes to 90-90% at +3). Out of 198 attempts, Tebow has thrown only 2 picks, or about 1%. The lowest INT percent of all time is Aaron Rodgers at 1.9%. We need a larger sample size to see what Tebow will do in the future, but it is still significant. NE's D gives up the most yards/game in the NFL and rank 18th vs the run and 28th vs the pass. Denver's D has been extraordinary recently and should be able to contain the Pats offense.

2* Philly -3 over NY Jets

WINNER

Philly is not mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, but they are all but done. On the other hand, the Jets are fighting for a playoff spot. I like Philly because they will be playing lose and playing the spoiler role here. Philly is in a good schedule position coming off 2 road games, and playing on the road next week. The Jets offense is poor, and their D is average. With Vick getting healthier I think they will be able to run effectively (1st in YPR).

1* Buffalo +1 over Mia

After Miami fired their coach they will be in no position to get a W on the road here. I think they cash it in for the year. Buffalo has been on a slide as of late, but qualify for a 62-29 ATS trend based on their blowout loss last week. Buffalo will be able to exploit Miami's mediocre D (8th v run and 16 v pass).

Strong Opinion:

Oakland +3 over Detroit

WINNER