Week 14
Week: 2-2
Overall: 31-20-2 (61%)
+15.5 Units
1*: .66-.75 Unit
2*: 1 Unit
3*: 1.3-1.5 Units
4*: 1.5-1.66 Units
5*: 2+ Units
Line listed is the consensus line when game is posted, and these will be what I use for my record. View individual write ups for specific star changes if the line is different.
3* Houston -6 over Seattle
WINNER
Houston should light up the score board on a poor Seahawks team. Shaub will have a field day against a Seahawk team that allows 244 YPG (26th in NFL) and 25 pass completions/game (31st) at a rate of 67% (30th). With the Texans off 4 consecutive losses and playing a "sandwich" game (off road game and will play two consecutive road games next) they are in a prime schedule spot. This line is at -7 at some places, it will remain a 3* at this line.
Hou 34 Seattle 7
Blowout city! Seattle was never in this game and dominated every facet...that's what I like to see in 3*.
2* Cinci +7 over Minnesota
This line is inflated because Minnesota lost last week (and the public expects them to bounce back) and Cinci is underrated. The Bengals only allow 16 PPG (1st in the league). They are 1st against the run which will force Favre to throw. He has averaged 18 int's per year over his career and I don't expect him to keep staying interception free (he threw 2 last week). Minnesota finally gets a test here and I think Cinci keeps it tight. This line is dropping, remains a 2* at +5.5 and up.
Min 30 Cinci 10
Cinci was in this game for a while, but their offense looks bad and they were never able to come back. Palmer threw for only 94 yards...tought to win like that.
2* Denver +7 over Indy
Denver is off back-to-back wins and I think they give the Colts a battle here. Nobody can shut down Manning, but if anyone can slow him down it's the Broncos. They only allow 180 YPG in the air (2nd in NFL). Indy cannot run the ball averaging only 88 YPG (last in NFL) and 3.8 YPR (28th). I think the Colts may get their first loss this week. This line is dropping, would wager as a 1* at less than 7.
Indy 28 Den 16
Denver actually outplayed the Colts but couldn't get the W. They outgained them by more than 50 yards and only had 1 turnover to the Colts' 3, and somehow still couldn't win.
1* SF +4 over Arizona
WINNER
This line is inflated because Ariz beat Minne last week, but they were in a great position to do so. Don't worry about revenge here, in fact SF is actually a better play because they beat Arizona earlier in the year. I like SF and think they get the W here. My supersysten hasn't had many plays this year, but it has SF as a 2 point favorite.
SF 24 Ariz 9
Turnovers were the story of this game as Zona had 7 and led to all of the Niners points. This was a typical NFL game with a good team (Zona) in a bad position and played as such. I love when 88% of the public is on one side as it was on Zona, usually it means the other side is a winner.
