Week 14

1*: .66-.75 Unit

2*: 1 Unit

3*: 1.3-1.5 Units

4*: 1.5-1.66 Units

5*: 2+ Units

Line listed is the consensus line when game is posted, and these will be what I use for my record. View individual write ups for specific star changes if the line is different.

4* Tenn +3.5 over New Orleans

New Orleans is a different team on the road and in the cold. The Saints D is 30th in run D and with CJ now playing better they are going to eat them for breakfast. The Saints strength is obviously their passing game, but the Titans are 4th in passing D (YPPA). There is a 112-58 ATS trend on the Titans. I have this game as NO -1. The Titans win this game outright...fire on them and the money line!

NO 23 Ten 17

This was one of the worst losses of my career. Tenn was down 5 with about 3 minutes left when it was 3rd and about half a yard in the Saints territory and instead of moving the chainst they let the rookie backup QB (who played very well) throw a bomb. The next play, they do a QB sneak and two linesmen had different spots, one was a first down and one wasn't. The ref decided to give it to the linesman with the terrible spot and they turned the ball over on downs. The Titans still got the ball back and with 5 seconds left (and 0 timeouts) were on the 5 yard line and couldn't get a TD-instead of running a quick throw Locker ran around the pocket and got sacked. The Titans outgained the Saints 1 Yard/play (usually equals a 7 point win) and held the Saints to 9 points after 3 quarters...if you told me this would be the case I would bet this game again. Heart breaking loss.

2* Washington +8.5 over N.E.

WINNER

New England shouldn't be a 8.5 road fav against the Youngstown State Penguins. They are 20th against the run and 28th vs the pass. The Skins D is pretty solid (10th vs the run and 13th vs the pass). The Skins have a good home dog trend that is 96-56 ATS. I know it's not easy to bet a big home fav because they are so inferior but remember NFL road favorites of a touchdown or more are 46% ATS since 1989. Give me the Skins in a close game.

NE 34 Was 27

2* Oakland +11.5 over Green Bay

Looking at GB's stats, they shouldn't be undefeated. But, they are great in turnover ratio and penalties. GB strength is the pass game and Oakland is 5th in pass D. Oakland's strong run game (6th) will run all over GB's weak run D (29th in YPR). There is a large dog trend favoring Oakland this is 56-27 ATS. My line is GB -10, so there is some value on Oakland.

Oak 46 GB 16

Strong opinion:

Arizona +3.5 over SF

WINNER

Ariz 21 SF 19