Week 13
Week 13: 5-0
Overall: 29-18-2 (62%)
+15.5 Units
1*: .66-.75 Unit
2*: 1 Unit
3*: 1.3-1.5 Units
4*: 1.5-1.66 Units
5*: 2+ Units
Line listed is the consensus line when game is posted, and these will be what I use for my record. View individual write ups for specific star changes if the line is different.
4* Washington +10 over N.O.
WINNER
This is a classic letdown game for the Saints. I see this game similar to when the Bengals lost to Oakland earlier this year. In both circumstances the Bengals and Saints looked at the previous game (Cinci versus Steelers and the Saints last week versus the Pats) as their measuring stick. Last weeks win over the Pats was a huge emotional win for the Saints and they were celebrating like they won the Super Bowl. Now, they have to travel on the road on a short week and face a Skins team that has been playing better as of late...I smell upset. The Saint's D is vulnerable. They give up 21 PPG, 11 YPP (20th), and 4.5 YPR (26th). On the other side of the ball, the Skins will be able to contain Brees and his passing attack because they only allow 170 YPG in the air (2nd). Love the Skins in this game! I also like the money line at +400.
N.O. 33 Wash 30
Yeeeeeeeeeaaaaaaaaaa bbbbooooooyyyyy! Easy 4* winner on the Skins. The cover was never in question here. The Skins should have won this game outright. Up 7 with 1:50 to go the Skins missed a 23 yard field goal to put the game away. In OT the refs overturned the call on the field and ruled a fumble on the Skins (it appeared that it wasn't a fumble). All that matters is the cover!!!!!!!
3* N.Y. Giants +2 over Dallas
WINNER
The Giants have lost 4 of their last 5 and I think they bounce back here. The Giants got embarrassed on Thanksgiving last week at Denver and I think 10 days of rest will be the medicine they need to get the win here. Romo and the Cowboys cannot win in December and will struggle in the cold. Don't let the Cowboys record fool you they have played the third easiest schedule in the league. I expect the Giants running game to get back on track and get the win here.
NYG 31 Dallas 24
The Giants stepped up big to get this win. They actually got outgained 100 yards...but they won where it counts...the line of course.
3* N.Y. Jets -3 over Buffalo
WINNER
I love the Jets in this game! I think they are going to get on a run after their win last week. The Jets are going to run the ball easily as they average 161 YPG (2nd) versus a Buffalo D that is dead last giving up 165 YPG. On the other side of the ball I don't see how the Bills are going to score versus a Jets D that is 7th verus the run and 2nd versus the pass. This is a revenge game also as the Bills beat the Jets 16-13 earlier this year. In that contest the Jets rushed for over 300 yards, but Sanchez threw 5 picks. This game still went into OT even though the Bills were +4 in turnovers. J.E.T.S.!!!
NYJ 19 Buffalo 13
As predicted the Jets ran the ball with ease gaining 249 yards on the ground. The Jets shut down the Bills who only had 194 total yards. Nice 3* winner!
1* Arizona +3.5 over Minnesota
WINNER
Minnesota is off four consecutive wins and is in prime position for a loss here. Zona is in a great spot here off 2 road games and they have a goad game next week. These "sandwich games" are great opportunities for the win. The Vikings have allowed 10 points or less over the last 3 weeks and this also places the Cards in a great trend position. Zona gets the cover here!
Ari 30 Minn 17
Easy winner here. Zona's D stepped up big time and held A.P. to to 19 rushing yards. My hero Brett Favre threw 2 picks. Favre has averaged 18 interceptions over his career...it's not believable that he will keep up this interception free play.
2* G.B. -3 over Baltimore
WINNER
Baltimore is not going to be able to move the ball Monday versus a Packer D that ranks 3rd versus the rush (3.6 YPR) and 6th versus the pass. On the other side of the Ball Rodgers is going to eat up a Baltimore D that gives up 11 YPP (21st). I like the Bay to get a win at home monday night.
GB 27 Balt 14
GB controlled this game except for a short run of points that the Ravens had to bring the score within 3. Overall, GB nearly doubled the ravens yards (350 versus 185). The Pack's D was great and held Flacco to a lowly 27 passer rating. Great 2* win for the sweep this week.....5-0!!!
