Week 13
1*: .66-.75 Unit
2*: 1 Unit
3*: 1.3-1.5 Units
4*: 1.5-1.66 Units
5*: 2+ Units
Line listed is the consensus line when game is posted, and these will be what I use for my record. View individual write ups for specific star changes if the line is different.
2* Buffalo -2 over Tenn
Buffalo has lost 4 in a row, but after a close game last week I think they got some confidence. The Titans are in a tough schedule spot as this is their 3rd game on the road in their last 4. Meanwhile, Buffalo is in a favorable schedule spot as they are coming off 3 consecutive road and have to travel next week. Statistically, it's tough to see how the Titans are 6-5. They are 30th in running offense and 22nd in passing offense. Defensively they are 18th against the run. Buffalo is 5th in running offense and will control this game. There is a solid 156-71 ATS trend favoring Buffalo based on scheduling. Nobody circles the wagon like the Buffalo Bills!
Ten 23 Buf 17
Buffalo outgained Tenn by 50+ yards, but had 2 fumbles and this was the difference in the game.
2* Washington +3 over N.Y. Jets
This is a typical WWF NFL game that the Skins will win. In they eyes of the public the Jets are a good team, but they aren't. They average 3.8 YPR and are 22nd in pass D. Defensively they allow 4.1 YPR and are 12th in YPPA. Actually, Washington's offense is statistically better that the Jets. Defensively Washington is pretty good as they are ranked 13th against the run and 18 versus the pass. Washington lost 6 in a row before they won as a dog last and being a home dog this week puts them in a great position for the upset. The Jets are in a "must win" to keep their playoff hopes alive and I love betting against teams in this situation. We put too much emphasis on this, assuming that teams play harder or better in these spots, which is not usually the case.
NYJ 34 Was 19
Dont let this score fool you. Wash was up by 3 with 5 minutes left in this game. You are usually safe at +3 at home with this score, but not BWP. Wash outgained the Jets but committed costly turnovers (-2) to kill this win.
2* NYG +7 over GB
WINNER
I don't think GB deserves to be a 7 point dog on the road to the G-men. They are 25th in rushing O, 29th in rush D (YPR), and 23rd in pass D (YPPA). Eli has been playing lights out this year and he is 3rd in YPPA. The Giants have been struggling as of late losing SU and ATS their last 3 games and I think they step up this week. The only reason this is only a 2* is because GB has consistently been outplaying their stats this year.
GB 38 NYG 35
1* Miami -3 over Oakland
WINNER
Oakland has won 3 in a row, but they will get handed an L here. Oakland has strong run game, but Miami's D has been playing lights out lately and are 7th in the league. They are 13th versus the pass. Oakland has the worst run D in the league which will allow Miami to control this game. Miami is off a 10 day rest giving them extra time to prepare.
MIA 34 Oak 14
1* Seattle +3 over Phil
WINNER
Although Philly is not mathematically eliminated from playoffs, realistically they are out. Going from the "dream team" to getting their playoff hopes dash is a huge psychological blow and I don't see them getting up for this gaem. Seattle has a great home field advantage, and coming off a favorite loss they will be ready to get the W. Also, Philly is on a short week and has to travel cross country. Philly's strength is their run game (1st in league), but Seattle has a great run D (4th). On the defensive end Philly is bad allowing 7.7 YPPA (25th) and 22nd against the run, which should help Seattle's sub-par offense.
Sea 31 Phi 14
