Week 12

1*: .66-.75 Unit

2*: 1 Unit

3*: 1.3-1.5 Units

4*: 1.5-1.66 Units

5*: 2+ Units

Line listed is the consensus line when game is posted, and these will be what I use for my record. View individual write ups for specific star changes if the line is different.

1* Cleveland +7 over Cinci

WINNER

Cinci has no right being favored by 7. They're offense is bad (26th run, 23rd pass) and Cleveland's D is strong (15th run, 4th pass). I also lean under in this game.

1* St. Louis -2.5 over Arizona

Only a play if Skelton plays

2* Detroit +6 over GB

2* at +6 or higher

I have been waiting to bet against the Packers when they play a team that is good against the pass and has a formidable offense. Detroit is just that team. Detroit is 2nd versus the pass, which is GB's only strength. GB can't run the ball as they are 24th in rushing YPR. GB's defense is pitiful; they are 26th versus the run and 24th versus the pass. The Lions are above average offensively; 11th YPR and 16th YPPA. Green Bay is a luck +12 in turnovers, which will regress to the mean at some point. I like Detroit in this game and I also recommend a money line play because I think they have a good shot at the upset.

2* Balt -3 over SF

WINNER

I think that SF is a good team, but their schedule has been favorable and in my rankings they have ad the 4th easiest schedule thus far. They are 4-0 on the road and I simply don't see this continuing. I don't think their offense is good enough to hang with Balt's D. Baltimore is the best run D in the league and this will put the pressure on Alex Smith, and I'm not a believer yet. San Fran's D is for real, but I think Balt's offense has enough to get it done. SF has been extremely fortunate and is +17 in turnovers (1st in NFL). As long as Balt is -160 or greater on the money line, they qualify for a 40-3 straight up winner trend. It's tough to travel on a short week and play in Balt…give me the Ravens.

Strong Opinions:

Indy +3.5 over Carolina

Baltimore/SF Under 39

WINNER

I don't usually wager on total because of the variance, but I like the under in this one. Both teams with strong defenses and mediocre offenses.