Week 11

1*: .66-.75 Unit

2*: 1 Unit

3*: 1.3-1.5 Units

4*: 1.5-1.66 Units

5*: 2+ Units

Line listed is the consensus line when game is posted, and these will be what I use for my record. View individual write ups for specific star changes if the line is different.

3* Minnesota -1 over Oakland

I love Minne in this matchup. Oakland's strength is their run offense (5th in YPR), but this will be neutralized by the Vikings rush D (5th). The Viks strength is also their running game (3rd in league in YPR) and Oakland is second to last in rush D. This spells a big day for A.P. and clock control. There is a great 54-19 ATS trend favoring the Vikings (one of the strongest trends in my database). Love the Vikes!

OAK 27 Min 21

My whole basis of bet was that AP was going to run all over Oak...when he went down...game over.

2* Chicago -3.5 over SD

WINNER

These are two teams heading in the opposite directions. Diego's sliding and da Bears are red hot. The Bears are 12th in YPPA and will be able to move the ball easily against a bad SD secodary. Conversly, the Bears can stop the run and Rivers has been playing horrible this year. Gimme da bears as a 2*.

CHI 31 SD 20

Chi controlled this game from the start.

2* Buffalo +3 over Miami

I cannot believe this line! It is based on short term memory. If this game was 2 weeks ago when Miami was winless and Buffalo was playing well, the Bills would be -4. The public remembers what they see last and they saw Miami win 2 games and the Bills get killed last week. Miami beat a KC team that was in a terrible position and the Skins who are one of the worst teams in the league. You have to look at the body of work. The Bills are 2nd in running offense and 15th in passing offense. While the Phins D is 23rd in pass D. I think Fitzpatrick has a monster day. On the opposite side of the ball Miami is 19th in running offense (YPR) and 15th in pass offense (YPPA). My calculated line is Buffalo -2. The Dolphins are 3-30 ATS in their last 33 games as a home favorite, and 0-12 straight up as a favorite of 3 points or less. There is a solid 118-68 ATS trend favoring the Bills and a 73-26 ATS trend based on their blowout loss last week.

MIA 35 Buf 8

Buffalo showed no heart and got their butts whipped. When it looks to easy...it usually is.