Week 10
Week 10: 4-0
Overall 18-15-1
1*: .66-.75 Unit
2*: 1 Unit
3*: 1.3-1.5 Units
4*: 1.5-1.66 Units
5*: 2+ Units
Line listed is the consensus line when game is posted, and these will be what I use for my record. View individual write ups for specific star changes if the line is different.
5* GB +3 over Dallas *Underdog Game of the Year*
WINNER
It's here...BWP's 5* underdog GOY!!! Here's what I want you to do. Go to the bank, take out a loan for 10 stacks of high society, get a flight to your favorite vacation destination and make sure there is a layover in Vegas. During your layover go to the Mandalay Bay and lay your 10 stacks of high society on the Packers. No need to watch the game, you'll be sippin' a Mai Tai while the Pack are whipping on the Cowboys. I love the Pack today. Dallas is off 4 consecutive wins including a huge primetime win on the road against division rival Philadelphia Eagles. On the other hand, GB is off back to back losses including a loss as a 9.5 point fav to one of the worst teams in the league (T.B.). Dallas won't be able to run the ball against the Pack's D that allows only 3.5 YPR (2nd in NFL). Romo is also going to have a rough day against a D that allows only 185 YPG and are 4th in INT's. I smell a couple picks for the inconsistent Romo. On the other side of the ball GB will be able to run well as they average 4.5 YPR (10th). I see Rogers have a monster of a game against the Cowboys who are near the bottom of the league allowing 234 YPG. There is a great trend that is 94-28 ATS favoring the Pack. I usually only have one or two 5* per year because it is rare when it all comes together. In this game it does. The stats, trends, and situations all favor the Pack. Also, the public loves betting Dallas so that is why this line is scewed...take advantage!
GB 17 Dal 7
GB's defense controlled this game. GB couldn't move the ball the first half and it was 3-0. After they went up 10-0 I knew it was over. Dallas never could get a drive together and GB had the ball for 36 minutes compared to Dallas' 24. Romo came through with 2 picks (as predicted above). BIG 5* WINNER!!!
4* SF -3 over Chicago
WINNER
I love the niners in this game! The niners are off 4 losses and Chicago will be traveling on a short week. This all adds up to blowout city! San Fran leads the league in rush D (3.4 YPR) which will put pressure on Cutler who has proven he cannot produce. The Niners have a good rush game and should be able to eat up the Bears weak D. Singletary will have his team ready for this one. I am keeping this a 4*.
SF 10 Chi 6
Talk about a sweater! I have to give Jay Cutler my winnings for this game. He threw 5 picks including 2 in the red zone with one in the end zone to end the game. SF's D played tough, but their O was lacking. They had a missed FG and couldn't punch it in when they had 1st and goal inside the 5. So, this game was closer than it should have been. All that matter is that we got the win...BIG 4* WINNER!
2* St. Louis +14 over N.O.
WINNER
NO should not be a 14 point fav on the road. Bad teams off byes are very good plays at home and I like the Rams.
NO 28 St Lou 23
Though N.O. controlled most of this game it was very even with each team gaining about 430 yards. The Rams had the ball 4 more minutes and the Saints had 3 turnovers to the Rams 1. But, as bad teams do the Rams found a way to lose...but they covered and that's all that really matters!
1* Ten -8 over Buff
WINNER
Tenn is hot and they are playing loose with Young at the helm and I think they get the easy win here.
Ten 41 Buf 17
Nobody gets the wagons circled on them like the Buffalo Bills...easy winner.
