Week 1

1*: .66-.75 Unit

2*: 1 Unit

3*: 1.3-1.5 Units

4*: 1.5-1.66 Units

5*: 2+ Units

Line listed is the consensus line when game is posted, and these will be what I use for my record. View individual write ups for specific star changes if the line is different.

No plays week 1. There are too many unknown variables week 1. The following are strong opinions only.

Chicago +3 over Atlanta

WINNER

The Bears qualify for an 82-43 ATS first week trend. Atlanta's defense was poor last year (28th against the run allowing 4.6 YPR,14th versus pass allowing 6.9 YPPA) and they didn't make any improvements. Also, ATL was fortunate at +14 in turnover ratio lasy year (over an extended amount of games this well regress to close to 0). Chicago's D was 4th and 8th against the run/pass last year, and I don't see them falling off. Offensively, I think Cutler should have success against the Falcon's D. My mathematical system has the Falcons as 1 point favs, so there is slight value on the Bears. I am tempted to make this a play, but opt to stay away week 1.

CHI 30 ATL 12

This was an easy winner. ATL was never in the game. Actually, it was an even game statistically, but Da Bears forced 3 costly turnovers to get the W! Nice start for BWP!