Super Bowl XLIV

1*: .66-.75 Unit

2*: 1 Unit

3*: 1.3-1.5 Units

4*: 1.5-1.66 Units

5*: 2+ Units

Line listed is the consensus line when game is posted, and these will be what I use for my record. View individual write ups for specific star changes if the line is different.

2* New Orleans +5.5 over Indianapolis

WINNER

It's here…the big game! This game is so analyzed that usually the oddsmakers are right on the money. But, sometimes they have to compensate for the abnormal large amount of money that will be wagered on the Super Bowl. I think that is what happened this year. My math system actually has this game at a pick 'em. Now, Vegas knows that if they made this a pick 'em that every square from here to Bangladesh would be all over the Colts (65% of wagers are on Indy as of Saturday afternoon). Over $80 million is wagered in legally Nevada on the Super Bowl and it is estimated that 98% of the action this Sunday is wagered illegally. They can't risk that kind of exposure. Bettors have too short of a memory. If this game was on a neutral field during week 14 (when they were undefeated) it would probably Indy -2 (to compensate for the nation's love of Peyton Manning). But, because the Saints have not been as dominant, they fail to look at the entire body of work. The Saints average 4.5 YPR (5th in the NFL) and Brees averages 8.3 YPPA (3rd). I think they will be able to run effectively versus a Colts D that allows 4.3 YPR (16th) and 127 YPG (24th). I dont think Freeney will play and if he does he won't be effective and it will hurt the Colts. On the other side of the ball Indy has the worst rushing offense in the league, but they had this all year and still failed to lose a meaningful game. As usual, it comes down to stopping Manning but here's a hint, nobody can do that. If you pressure him he'll hit the hot route and if you don't he just sits back and picks you apart. But, Manning has been known to choke in the postseason. Remember, Manning's record is only 8-8 in the postseason and he has thrown 26 TD's to his 17 INT's (as compared to a 2:1 TD:INT ratio during his regular season career). Even when the Colts won the Super Bowl he had a terrible postseason throwing only 2 TD's to his 6 INT's for an abysmal 66.8 passer rating. Peyton's brilliance stems from his study of film, but I think the Sean Peyton will have some different looks in store for him and Manning will make a critical mistake. In a game which neither team will effectively stop the other give me the points with the Saints! I think New Orleans has a good chance for an upset and I like the money line (+180) for a small play in addition to taking them +5.5.

N.O. 31 Indy 17

WOW!!!!!!!!! What a prediction by BWP!!! I was right on the money with the Manning prediction (see italics) and he choked big time. With 5:40 left in the game and the score tied at 17 Manning threw a pick 6 to put the game out fo reach. Money line and +5.5 winner!!! What a way to end the year.

Propositions

Propositions plays are just for fun and won't count toward record

Coin toss: Tails (-105): I got some inside information on this one!

Shortest TD over 1.5 yards (+120)

WINNER

Largest lead of game under 16.5 points (-120)

WINNER

Brees longest completion over 38.5 yards (-130)

Garcon over 4.5 receptions (-130)

WINNER

Will Brees throw TD in 4th quarter-YES (even money)

WINNER

Under 7.5 punts by both teams combined (-140)

WINNER