Super Bowl XLIII
1*: .66-.75 Unit
2*: 1 Unit
3*: 1.3-1.5 Units
4*: 1.5-1.66 Units
5*: 2+ Units
Line listed is the consensus line when game is posted, and these will be what I use for my record. View individual write ups for specific star changes if the line is different.
1* Arizona +7 over Pittsburgh
WINNER
The big game is here and I think the Cards get it done!!! The key to this game is Kurt Warner. If his line could give him time he will dominate the game. The way I saw the O line handle the Panthers and the Eagles the last couple of weeks I think they will be able to protect him. Warner is one of the smartest QB's in the league and he can recognize the blitz. When the Eagle came after him he was able to throw quit slants and keep moving the chain. Though Arizona has not run the ball for many yards (only 3.3 YPR in the postseason) they have sticked with it and this has helped the passing game. It's no secret Warner has been very good this year averaging 7.7 YPPA during the regular season and an astounding 8.4 YPPA this postseason. Pittsburgh defense is strong allowing only 3.3 YPR during the regular season (2.4 this postseason) and 5.4 YPPA. But, I think their secondary can be exposed. Pittsburgh offense is not impressive. Their running game is weak averaging only 3.7 YPR (29th during the regular season) and a 3.1 YPR this postseason. Big Ben also doesn't scare me. He is actually better outside of the pocket. I think Whisenhunt knows Ben in and out since he coached him in the past and will bring various packages to get pressure and not let him out of the pocket. Ben only averaged 7.1 YPPA during the regular season (20th in NFL). Ward is banged up and I think this will hurt the Steelers offense. Arizona's run D is very good allowing 4 YPR in the regular and postseason (11th during the regular season). Against the pass they allow 7.2 YPPA, which is average, but as I said Ben does not concern me. The line is on the money here as my Super System has the Steelers as a 7.7 point favorite. I think that Arizona has a good shot at winning this game outright and also recommend taking the money line at +250 for 0.2 units.
Pitt 27 Arizona 23
It's a shame that Zona outplayed Pittsburgh but didn't win, but they got the cover!!! Zona outgained Pitt 7.1 yards/play to 5 yards/play. The big difference maker was at the end of the half when Pitt was able to get a 100 yard int reception for a TD. Besides that, Warner played great throwing for 375 yards. Big Ben didn't play well, but did it when it counted in the end. What a way to end the year with a big win!!!
Props
Note: I only wager small on props for fun therefore they will not be used in my record
Under 5.5 sacks -130
WINNER
Big ben is hard to get down and Warner will get the ball out quickly if he gets pressured.
Largest lead of game under 14.5 -115
WINNER
I don't think either team gets a huge lead in this game.
Hines Ward under 73.5 recieving yards -150
WINNER
In big games the D will concentrate on the number one reciever (Ward) and be able to hold him down.
S. Breaston over 3 receptions -200
WINNER
Pittsburgh will be concentrating on Fitz and Bolden and Breaston will get more catches.
W. Parker under 80.5 rushing yards -120
WINNER
Arizona's rush D is solid and they will not let Willie get many yards.
E. James under 12.5 rushing attempts -120
WINNER
Unless Arizona is up big they will not attempt to run against Pittsburgh's tough run D.
Arizona over 21.5
WINNER
I think zona will be able to score 24+ on pitt.
Under 1.5 fumbles -115
In a big game I think both teams will hold the ball with their life.
WINNER
National Anthem longer than 2 minutes
I think this young lady will give an inspirational performance after her tragedy and hold the notes.
WINNER
Will there be 3 unanswered scores-No +170
I think the game will be close and back and forth.
