Money Management
Here at Byeweekpicks.com we see sports betting as investing not gambling. Outlined below is a simple strategy to follow so you will be prosperous.
What percentage do you have to pick to make money?
Assuming that the "juice" (the interest or vig) is 10% (i.e. you must wager $110 to win $100) you must win 11 out of 21 bets to break even, or 52.4%. This gives the house an edge of 4.5%. Hitting 11 out of 21 bets may sound easy to do, but if you have been wagering for some time now you know this is not. The average bettor actually picks below 50%. The difference between 50% and 60% does not sound extreme, but over a year this is thousands of dollars and the difference between losing money and making a profit. Many handicappers claim to be "hitting 80% this season" but I can guarantee that they can not do this on a consistent basis and over the long term. In 2006 Byeweekpicks was 57% (51-38-2) including 65% (11-6) on the 4* and 5* picks making it a very prosperous year! If you could consistently pick 55% you will significantly increase your original investment. Consistently picking 60% is like batting .400 in Major League Baseball.
Money Management
1) Set a budget
Ask yourself how much you can afford to lose (if you follow my money management and plays there is less than a 1% chance that you will lose your entire bankroll). Do not go over your head. Remember, this is an investment opportunity and you must be willing to take a risk. If you think that losing $5,000 will put you in the hole, by all means set your budget lower. If you follow Byeweekpicks' methods of wagering you will come out on top in the long run but on a week to week basis there may be times where you are down. You have to be able to afford these swings without panicking and trust your wagering skills.
2) Wager Amount
So how much should you bet on each game? This depends on how well you plan to do in the upcoming year and how often you wager. At Byeweekpicks we expect to hit approximately 60% of our games in the long term and bet approximately 3 NFL games per week hence our 1 unit play (2*) will be a wager of 6% of our budget. We use a star system to grade our plays with a 1* being 1/3-1/4 units, a 2* being 1 unit, a 3* being 1.3-1.5 units, a 4* being 1.5-1.66 units, and games of the year as a 5* (2+ units). Below is a guide to follow:
Betting 2 NFL games per week:
If you expect to win 55% of your plays wager 5.5% of budget
If you expect to win 60% of your plays wager 6.5% of budget
Betting 3 NFL games per week:
If you expect to win 55% of your plays wager 5% of budget
If you expect to win 60% of your plays wager 6% of budget
Betting 4 NFL games per week:
If you expect to win 55% of your plays wager 4% of budget
If you expect to win 60% of your plays wager 5% of budget
Betting 5 NFL games per week:
If you expect to win 55% of your plays wager 3% of budget
If you expect to win 60% of your plays wager 4% of budget
Here's an example if your budget is $5,000 and you are going to wager 5% on your 1 unit plays:
1* = 2/3 unit = $165
2* = 1 unit = $250
3* = 1.3-1.5 unit = $325-$375
4* = 1.5-1.66 unit = $375-$415
5* = 2+ = $500
3) Keep your unit plays consistent through the season:
What this entails is keeping your 1 unit wager (2*) the same throughout the season regardless what your current bankroll is. Since your other star picks depends on your 1 unit wager these will not change either. For example, if your budget is $5,000 and using the table above you figure your 1 unit bet is 5% ($250), then your 1 unit play will always be $250. Even if you win $1,000 dollars you will NOT use $6,000 as your new budget because you would then be mistakenly making $300 your 1 unit (5% of $6,000). The reason to keep your 1 unit play constant through the year is to protect yourself during losing streaks. Let's view an example where your budget is $5,000 and you are wagering 5% on your 1 unit plays. For simplicity sake let's assume all bets are 1 unit plays. First, let's see what happens when you bet a consistent amount. If you were to go 42-28 overall this year (60%) your overall profit would be $2,800 for the season. Now let's take a look if you vary your 1 unit play. You still go 42-28 overall, but in the first half of the season you are an amazing 25-10 and your profit is $3,500 setting your new budget at $8,500. At this point you think that you cannot lose and now bump your 1 unit play to $425 (5% of $8,500). But, in the second half of the season you go 17-18 and lose $1,190 so your final profit for the year is $2,310. Even though you went 60% in both examples you would win $490 more if you keep your wagers consistent. During actual wagering you will be betting more than 1 unit at times so this disparity will be even greater. Everybody is susceptible to losing streaks so protect yourself by using a consistent 1 unit wager.
4) Discipline: Do not push, do not chase
This is the most important aspect of money management and is the difference between the casual bettor and the person who views sports betting as an investment. Once you have established the amount you are going to bet (based on above) this is how much you should wager regardless of what happens in the earlier games. If you think that this may be difficult for you, the best thing to do is to wager on all of your games before the 1 o'clock EST kick off on Sunday. The later games that you wager on should not be dependant on the earlier. By doing this you avoid chasing losses and pushing wins. You must have discipline to win money!
