Divisional Playoff
1*: .66-.75 Unit
2*: 1 Unit
3*: 1.3-1.5 Units
4*: 1.5-1.66 Units
5*: 2+ Units
Line listed is the consensus line when game is posted, and these will be what I use for my record. View individual write ups for specific star changes if the line is different.
2* N.Y. Giants +8 over Green Bay
2* at +7.5 or higher
WINNER
I have been down on the Packers all year and will continue to take advantage. The Packers were -7 at NY. Typically, there is a 6 point swing when you go from away to road (see the NE/Denver game for example), so the Giants would be +13. But, Vegas knows what they are doing so they set this line low. The Packers D Is terrible, they were 26th vs the run and 27th vs the pass. The Giants are hot and will exploit this bad D. Eli was 3rd in YPPA this year. The G men's running game picked up last week too. Rodgers is one of the best QB's in the league, but the Giants front 4 is going to get pressure and get him out of his game (like KC). My line is GB -3…gimme the G men! I also like the Giants money line (+275) because I think they have a good chance of upsetting the Pack.
NYG 37 GB 20
This game was never in doubt ATS...too easy! The Giants dominated!
1* San Fran +3.5 over New Orleans
1* at +3.5 or higher
WINNER
1* San Fran/New Orleans under 47.5
1* at 47 or higher
70+% of the public is taking the Saints, and I can see why. They're excting, they have a great offense, and Brees is on fire. But as a BWP follower, you're not the public. There is incredible line value on the Niners here because the public loves to bet offense. But, defense wins games! When Saints have the ball, their running game will get shut down by a Niners run D that is first in the NFL allowing 3.5 YPR. It's all about Brees vs. the Niners pass D which is great allowing 6.9 YPPA. They average 25.8 PPG outside this year (and this includes games against Car,TB,Ten who have inferior D's). The Saints will be held to 24 points or less which is why I like the under. The Niners are going to pound the ball against a saints D that is 29th vs the run during the regular season (5 YPR). My line including all games is the Saints -1 and if you only include the Saints road games it is Niners -3! You have to take over a FG with a great D at home in the post season. I like the under for all the reasons above…the Saints will be held to less than 24 and the Niners don't have a high flying offense.
SF 36 NO 32
Yeaaa boy! Another winner on the Niners. The under looked good, then there were 4 TD's in the last 4 minutes.
Denver over NE
Strong opinion at +13 or +13.5
This game is not about Tebow. It is about NE's terrible defense. They were 24th vs the run and pass during the regular season. No team should be -13 with these stats. Their offense is obviously strong, but if Denver's D plays to their potential they will get the cover. Denver's run D is 5th in YPR. My calculated line is NE -9 so there is definite line value here.
NE 45 Den 10
This was blowout city...never a shot.
Balt/Hou
No opinion
This is a stay away game for me. I can't bet Yates on the road in the playoffs and I can't bet a below average Balt offense against a very good Houston D. When houston has the ball they are 8th in YPR and 7th in YPPA, versus a great Balt D that is 2nd and 3rd in the NFL versus the run/pass. I am not sold on Balt's offense and Houston's D is strong (11th vs run and 2nd vs pass). My calculated line is Balt -6 (would be 3.5 with Shaub).
Bal 20 Hou 13
