Conference Championship

1*: .66-.75 Unit

2*: 1 Unit

3*: 1.3-1.5 Units

4*: 1.5-1.66 Units

5*: 2+ Units

Line listed is the consensus line when game is posted, and these will be what I use for my record. View individual write ups for specific star changes if the line is different.

2* Baltimore +7.5 over NE

Posted early (sunday night) so that you can get the best number

2* at 7 or higher

WINNER

This is game is about public perception and line value. The Pats should not be favored by 7+ points in this game. Before the divisional round of the playoffs you could bet this game and the line was NE -3.5 (this was based on 16 games). Now, after 60 minutes of football the line moved 4.5 points? Classic over reaction. My calculated line is NE -4.5. But, after Balt looked bad against Houston and NE blew out Denver Vegas had to set this line higher because of the public action that would be coming in on NE if it wasn't 7+. And the public loves to bet offenses (like the Saints versus SF). If anyone can slow down the Pats offense it's the Ravens who gave up only 3.5 YPR (1st in NFL during reg season) and 6.4 YPPA (3rd). I will admit I an not sold on Balt's offense (12th in YPR, 22nd YPPA during reg season) especially there passing game, but NE's D is so bad they will be able to cover the big spread. NE gives up 8 YPPA (29th during reg season) and 4.6 YPR (24th during reg season). Rice is going to have a huge day. The Pats haven't bet a winning team all year, while the Ravens are 7-0 versus playoff teams. Give me the points!

NE 23 Balt 20

Baltimore's cover was never in doubt and they could have easily won outright. They missed a 30 yard FG for overtime. They outgained the Pats by nearly 1 YPP. Too easy!

SF/NYG

This is an interesting matchup. The Niners D is slightly better than the Giants, but the Giants offense is bettet than SF's. My calculated line is SF -1 so the line is fair. I would consider the Giants a strong opinion at +3 or more (but I don't think it gets there). Would also favor the under if you had to wager, but it has lost value because it has dropped all week. It's tough to say how the weather will affect this game as well.