Conference Championship

1*: .66-.75 Unit

2*: 1 Unit

3*: 1.3-1.5 Units

4*: 1.5-1.66 Units

5*: 2+ Units

Line listed is the consensus line when game is posted, and these will be what I use for my record. View individual write ups for specific star changes if the line is different.

1* New Orleans -3 over Minnesota (Buy Half Point)

PUSH

I would definitely buy the half point (18% of NFL games have landed on 3 since 1990).

These teams are very evenly matched but I think it comes down to the Saints' protection of Brees versus the Vikings' attack. The Viking's will only rush four for the majority of the game because if they blitz Brees will get the ball out quickly and eat them alive. They can usually get good pressure rushing only four, but the Willams boys are banged up which will make a big difference. The Saints will be able to protect Brees better than the Cowboys protected Romo; they only allowed 1.25 sacks/game. Allen might get some pressure, but the Saints will keep a RB in the back field or and extra TE to keep Allen off Brees. Minnesota' secondary is very vulnerable giving up 7.1 YPPA (20th). The Superdome is going to be rockin' and the Saints are going to the big game after this one!

NO 31 Minn 28

The Saints got totally dominated in this game, but they won the turnover battle and the team that wins this wins the game 90% of the time. It took the Vikings 5 turnovers (versus the Saints 1) for the Saints to win. The Vikings had 31 first downs compared to the Saints 15. They outgained the Saints by 200 yards. But my hero Brett Favre threw a pick with 15 seconds left to send it into overtime. I sent (the very overrated) Favre a new Mercedes CLS550 for all the money he has made me over the years by betting against him. Thanks Brett!!! Great and lucky push here.

Indy versus N.Y. Jets

Opinion only-Jets

I like the Jets small here, but not enough to make them a 1* play (will not count in final record). My Supersystem favors the Jets, it has the Colts as a 3.5 point favorite only. The Jets once again have the statistical advantage this game. The Colts won't be able to run (they haven't all year though). They are last in the NFL in running offense and the Jets are 4th in rushing D. Once again this comes down to trying to stop Manning, and the Jets allow only 5.4 YPPA (1st in league). The Jets won't be able to pass against a very good Indy pass D (3rd in league). They should be able to run pretty effectively against a mediocre Colts' run D that is 16th in the NFL. If the Jets can control the clock and flow of the game they can upset the Colts here. I would take money line small also.