Conference Championship

Week: 0-1

2008 Record: 38-24-3 (61%)

2008: +16.1 Units

1*: .66-.75 Unit

2*: 1 Unit

3*: 1.3-1.5 Units

4*: 1.5-1.66 Units

5*: 2+ Units

Line listed is the consensus line when game is posted, and these will be what I use for my record. View individual write ups for specific star changes if the line is different.

Conference Championship Review

Had a tough loss on Philly this week, but I am 38-24-3 (61%) for the year. If you are wagering 6% per unit you are have nearly doubled your original bankroll!!! Only one game left and I look to finish the year with a winner in Super Bowl XLIII !

2* Philadelphia -3 over Arizona

The key to this game is getting to Warner. If you let him stand in the pocket he will kill you, but if you get sacks and knock-downs he will make mistakes. Warner is a statue in the pocket and Philly's defensive coordinator (Jim Johnson) is the best at blitz schemes and getting pressure on QB's. Philly averages 3 sacks/game (3rd during the regular season) and should be able to continue this trend. I don't put too much stock into the score (48-20) during their week 13 battle because Philly was in a great spot that game (Philly dominated the game and had the ball for 40 minutes compared to Zona's 20). But, what I do look at is that Warner threw 3 picks because of the pressure Philly got on him, although they did not get any sacks. Arizona averaged only 3.5 YPR (31st in the NFL) during the regular season. The media is praising their new "great running game", but they are actually averaging only 3.2 YPR in the postseason! They have ran the ball 71 times the last two games (versus 21 rushes/game during the regular season) so they are making opposing teams respect their running game more. Philly's D has been able to shut down the run all year so I don't foresee this to be a problem. The Eagles only allow 3.5 YPR and 6.1 YPPA. I don't see the Cards moving the ball as easily as they have the last couple weeks. Arizona's run D is average allowing 4 YPR during the regular season and 3.5 YPR in the postseason. The game is in McNabb's hands because Zona's pass D is bad allowing 7.2 YPPA (22nd during regular season) and 221 YPG. Arizona has been fortunate this postseason due to a +7 turnover ratio. They did outplay Atlanta (1 yard/play more) but they were also +2 in turnovers. Last week versus Carolina, the Panthers actually averaged 5.3 yards/play versus the Cardinals' 4.7, so don't let the score fool you. At first I thought this line was skewed because Vegas knows the public would be on Philly, but my math system has the Eagles -4.9. The only way I see Zona winning this game is if the effectively pick up the blitz and the corners get beat in one on one coverage. I like Philly as a 2*.

Arizona 32 Philly 25

For the second straight week I had the team that played statistically better but lost the game. Zona dominated the first half, but Philly dominated the second. Overall the Eagles had 6.8 YPP vs. the Cardinals 6.3. McNabb missed some key passes that would have lead to touchdowns but threw for 360 yards with one pick. With the Eagles down 7 they could not convert a 4th and 10 and that was the ball game. Another tough loss!

Pittsburgh -6 verus Baltimore- No Play

I think that Pitt gets the win in this game but I think the line is inflated so I am staying away. Baltimore won their last two games being fortunate on turnovers, and this can't continue forever. It's hard for me to see a rookie QB (who hasn't been playing good this postseason) getting a win in Pitt. Both defenses are great. Pitt allows 3.3 YPR and 5.4 YPPA (both first in NFL this postseason). Baltimore only allows 3.6 YPR and 5.9 YPPA. Baltimore's running game is better than Pitt's (4 YPR vs 3.7 YPR). Their passing games are the same averaging 7.1 YPPA. My Super System has the line at Pitt -3.1, so it is inflated. I think this is going to be a tight game.