Every week Byeweekpicks has full analysis as you see through week 6 and the playoffs below. In this summary I did not included the full analysis that was originally posted.
2008-2009 Record
39-24-3 (62%)
Units
+16.7 Units
2008-2009 Review
This was Byeweekpocks best year to date! Byeweekpicks' final record was 39-24-3 (62%). I was +16.7 units for the year and if you bet 6% of you bankroll per unit you doubled your money this year!!! The year was capped by a win on Arizona in the Super Bowl (now 3-0 on Super Bowl picks). Byeweekpicks has been improving each year and I will continue to work hard in the offseason to perfect my methods.
Week 1
No plays
I do not have any picks this week. I like to see what teams do week 1.
Week 2
No Plays.
Week 3
Week: 3-0
Overall: 3-0
+3.6 Units
Week 3 Review
What a great first week of wagering!!! I was 3-0 including a big 4* win over Washington. I am +3.6 units and am ready to start a roll!
1*: .66-.75 Unit
2*: 1 Unit
3*: 1.3-1.5 Units
4*: 1.5-1.66 Units
5*: 2+ Units
Line listed is the consensus line when game is posted, and these will be what I use for my record. View individual write ups for specific star changes if the line is different.
4* Washington -3 over Arizona
WINNER
Here's what I want you to do. Bet the Skins tonight, go party all night, go to bed late, and wake up when the game is over to see an easy winner! Bet it and forget it! Let's not overreact with Arizona's 2-0 start. They played San Francisco (who appears to be underrated this year) and Miami. The reason they beat the Niners was because they were +5 on turnovers (and they only won by 10)! San Fran actually out gained Cards. This week they have to travel across the country for an early game and face a tough Redskins team. It's tough to put a lot of weight on stats this early in the season since teams have only played two games but I will analyze them anyway. Arizona's running game is terrible averaging only 2.7 YPR (yards per rush), good enough to be second to last in the league. In the air Warner is having a good year averaging 270 YPG (yards per game) passing (5th in NFL). Defensively, they are below average. They allow 4.1 YPR (yards per rush) (17th in NFL) and 7.2 YPPA (yards per pass attempt) (20th in NFL) and this takes into account the game where they shut down the lowly Dolphins. I think that the Skins' strong running game will exploit this mediocre defense.
The Skins had a rough season opener against the Giants but bounced back big time against the Saints last week for a 29-24 victory. They played very good last week with 455 total yards and Campbell looked solid throwing for 321 with no picks. I think that as the season goes on Washington is going to be a force to be reckoned with in the NFC. Let's take a look at the stats. On the offensive side of the ball they average 4.2 YPR (16th in NFL) and 7.2 YPPA (14th in NFL). But, half of these stats are from the Giants game where they were woeful gaining only 210 total yards. I think they will look more like they did week 2 against the Cards. Defensively, they allow 4.4 YPR (18th), and will not have any trouble stopping the Cards terrible rushing attack. To beat the Cards you have to stop Warner and their passing attack (their only strength) and the Skins will do that! They held Brees to 210 yards last week and picked him off twice and are allowing 6.4 YPPA on the season. Traveling for the west coast isn't easy in the NFL and the Skins will hand the Cards their first loss in this game…BIG 4* PLAY! This will be a 4* play even if line increases up to 4.
Washington 24 Arizona 17
I hope you did what I said and woke up and saw thw BIG 4* WINNER WITH THE SKINS!!! The difference in this game was turnovers, with Arizona commiting 2. Arizona had 313 total yards and the Skins had 323 total. Warner threw a big INT in the 4th quarter that lead to a Wash TD. Campbell had a very good game throwing for 22/30 with 2 TD's and no INT's. Great win for BWP!!!
2* Cincinnati +13 over N.Y. Giants
WINNER
A good rule of thumb in the NFL is this…teams are never as bad or as good as the media and public think they are. A great example is this game. The Bengals aren't as bad as they have appear and the Giants aren't as good as they have appeared. Usually after a Super Bowl victory teams have a let down after the first week. The Giants didn't let down at all last week against the Rams, but I expect them to on Sunday. Statistically, the Giants look pretty solid but they have played the bad Rams and the Skins in week 1 who looked bad at that time. They are averaging 5.4 YPR (4th in NFL) and 7.4 YPPA (13th in NFL). Defensively, they allow 3.8 YPR (13th) and 5.3 YPPA (5th). Statistically they look pretty good so far, but I think the oddsmaker have them overrated and they are in a let down position.
The Bengals have looked woeful losing to the Ravens and the Titans, but I think they are going to step up and cover the big spread here. Palmer has not looked himself averaging only 4.5 YPPA, but last week in Cinci there were gusting winds that affected his throws, so this stat is skewed somewhat. On the ground the Bengals are averaging only 3 YPR (28th in NFL). Defensively, they are allowing 4.7 YPR (23rd), but against the pass they look very good allowing only 5.1 YPPA (2nd in NFL). I think that their defense will look about the same as it has, but I expect their offense to rebound big time, especially Palmer. The Giants are better statictically, but like I said above you have to take stats with a grain of salt since it is so early in the season. I think people are giving the Giants too much respect and the Bengals will cover this big line. This is a 2* if line is 11.5 or greater, 1* if 11.
NYG 26 Cinci 23
This cover was never in question and Cinci would have won the game outright if the had any time management at the end of the game. Like I said above the Giants are overrated and the Bengals aren't as bad as people think. This is the NFL and teams usually rise to the occasion. The Bengals had 350 total yards compared to the Giants' 400. Palmer looked like his old self throwing for 290 yards, 1 TD, and no picks. The Bengal's D even looked respectable. Easy Winner!!!
2* San Francisco -4.5 over Detroit
WINNER
San Francisco is very underrated and you have to bet them early in the year while there is line value (I think if this game were in week 12 the Niners would be -9 or higher). Detroit looks as bad as they had in years past losing to the Pack and the horrendous Falcons. They really do not have a strength and even their passing game appears average gaining only 7 YPPA (15th in the NFL). On the ground they are gaining only 3.4 YPR (24th in the NFL). Defensively, they appear to be one of the worst teams in the league so far. They are allowing 6.1 YPR (last in the league) and 9.6 YPPA (29th in the NFL)! They are last in the league allowing 41 PPG and 410 total YPG (29th in the league).
The Niners have lost to the Cards, mainly because of a -5 turnover ratio, and won in OT last week to the Seahawks. So far statistically they look like one of the best teams in the NFC and very well rounded. They are averaging 4.7 YPR (8th in NFL) and O'Sullivan has looked solid at 9.9 YPPA (3rd in NFL) and throwing only 1 interception. If he can control the ball and not throw picks in this game I see the Niners winning easily. Defensively they have also looked good allowing only 3.8 YPR (13th in NFL) and 5.9 YPPA (9th in NFL). Also, Mike Martz and O'Sullivan are both looking for revenge because the Lions sent them packing last year! I like the 49ers minus the points for a 2* play. 2* play with line up to 6.
S.F. 31 Detroit 13
Another easy winner that was never in danger. The Niners owned the Lions. O'Sullivan had another respectable game throwing 2 TD's and no INT's. Kitna looked bad throwing a pick and fumbling once. These are the games I love to bet...easy winners!
Week 4
Week 3: 3-2
Overall: 6-2 (75%)
+3.9 Units
Week 4 Review
Had a solid week 4 going 3-2 including to straight up winner double digit dogs on Washington and K.C. Tennessee came through with another win, but I lost on Atlanta and San Fran. This brings my overall record to 6-2 and +3.9 units! I am looking forward to a huge week 5 as my super system comes into play for the first time this year.
1*: .66-.75 Unit
2*: 1 Unit
3*: 1.3-1.5 Units
4*: 1.5-1.66 Units
5*: 2+ Units
Line listed is the consensus line when game is posted, and these will be what I use for my record. View individual write ups for specific star changes if the line is different.
2* San Francisco +5.5 over New Orleans
I won last week with the Niners and I'm going continue to ride them while they still have line value. The public loves to bet high powered offenses and for the last 1 ½ years the Saints have been a favorite for public bettors. The problem is, the Saint's defense is pathetic! They are allowing 5.3 YPR (29th) and 258 YPG in the air (also 29th). Brees has been playing very well averaging 8.7 YPPA (5th), but they will face a stingy Niners pass D that is allowing only 5.5 YPPA (5th). With the loss of Shockey (WR's Patten and Colston also out) I think Brees takes a step back. Shockey already has 16 receptions on the year averaging 10 yards/catch. On the ground N.O. is bad averaging only 3.4 YPR (28th). New Orleans is a soft team with zero defense, and you cannot win in the NFL with that combination.
The Niners a very underrated this year. Their offense is well balanced averaging 4.7 YPR (11th). Gore looks like his old self and is 5th in the league in rushing yards. O'Sullivan is playing lights out in Martz's offense and averaging 9.4 YPPA (3rd), completing 66% of his passes and has a 105 passer rating (4th in the NFL)! This can only get better playing against one of the worst secondaries in the league. The Niners' rush D is average allowing 4.3 YPR (19th), but as mentioned above the Saint's do not have a good rushing game. In short, San Fran is a better team than the Saints and I think they win this game outright. I am also taking 0.1 units on San Fran money line at +200 (to win 0.2 units). This game will keep its * value even if line goes down to 4.
N.O. 31 San Fran 17
The Niners D did not play as I expected and gave up 470 total yards including 360 in the air. O'Sullivan played like the rookie he is throwing two picks in the red zone and also having a fumble. It's tough to win in the NFL when you lose the turnover battle.
2* Atlanta +7 over Carolina
Atlanta is underrated this year and I'm taking them here as a TD underdog against an average (at best) Panther team. The reason for this inflated line is simply this….they are the Atlanta Falcons. Lines are based on public perception, not on the quality of the teams. And, the public perceives the Falcons to stink, but they are wrong. Atlanta looks like a pretty good team this year (I was surprised myself when I crunched the numbers). The only reason I am making them only a 2* is because the competition they played so far has been bad (K.C., Detroit, and an average Tampa team). Atlanta is dominating on the ground averaging an amazing 5.8 YPR (1st in NFL) and 203 YPR (also 1st). I love taking big dogs when they can run the ball; this allows them to control the clock keeping the Panthers off the field an unable to cover the number. In two of his games Matt Ryan has been doing what is expected of him, don't force anything and don't make turnovers (had 2 INT's in T.B. game). If he continues this trend Atlanta will control this game against a Panther rush D that is merely average, allowing 3.9 YPR (13th). Defensively, Atlanta's rushing D is struggling allowing 5 YPR (26th), but the Panthers are only averaging 3.8 YPR (22nd in NFL) so I don't see this as a problem. The Falcons pass D looks very good allowing only 5.5 YPPA (4th in NFL). They will face Delhomme who has been struggling this year completing only 57% of his passes (25th in NFL) and throwing only 1 TD (and 1 INT). He is 23rd in the league averaging 6.2 YPPA. Through the years the Panther's D has been their strength, but their rush D is average as mentioned above and their pass D is merely average too allowing 6.6 YPR (13th in NFL). Take the underrated Dirtly Birds in this one, they'll control the clock and cover the spread. If line goes to 6.5 I would downgrade to 1* play (I would recommend buying the ½ point to bring line to 7).
Carolina 24 Atlanta 9
Atlanta wasn't able to run the ball and control the clock in this game. The only had 105 yards rushing. Ryan didn't make any mistakes but only completed 50% of his passes. Atlanta's D looked bad too giving up 294 passing yards. We still had the chance for the back door push in the 4th quarter but they turned the ball over on downs...damn.
2* Washington +11 over Dallas
WINNER
For similar reasons as betting San Fran I am taking the Skins. The Skins are underrated and the number here is inflated because Dallas has an explosive offense that the public loves betting. Don't get me wrong I have Dallas as the #1 team in my rankings, but they are coming off two huge primetime games versus the Eagles and the Pack…I smell letdown. Dallas' offense is the best in the league averaging 5 YPR (5th) and 8.4 YPPA (6th). But, defensively they are only average. They allow 4.1 YPR (15th) and 6.9 YPPA (15th).
I fired on the Skins with a 4* play last week against Zona and they came through for me…let's do it again! On the ground Wash is averaging 4.3 YPR (14th). Campbell seems to be coming into his own and has a better understanding of Zorn's west coast offense. Campell has 4 TD's, 0 INT's, and is completing 66% of his passes for a passer rating of 100! Defensively, the Skins aren't too strong against the run allowing 4.4 YRP, but only allowing 6.5 YPPA (10th) against the pass. Unfortunately, they will be without LB Jason Taylor, but this isn't going to make me shy away from betting the Skins. This number is way too high and the Skins aren't getting any respect in the NFC east and are looking to make a statement! This game will remain a 2* if line is 10 or higher.
Wash 26 Dallas 24
Ahhhh...there's nothing like betting a double digit dog that wins outright. You just feel like calling the bookie and asking..did you see that game? I think the secret may be out about Washington after this game as they played great against Dallas. Campbell had a tough game throwing for 230 yards with 1 TD and no INT's. Talk about ball control, Wash held the ball for 38 minutes! Easy Winner!!!
1* K.C. +10 over Denver
WINNER
I love big home dogs and they are good plays. In the NFL if home dog is favored by more than 7 they are 65-44 ATS (59.6%) since 1998. Denver's offense is explosive, but their defense is bad and they don't deserve to be high road favorites. The Bronco's are coming off 2 tough emotional wins against the Chargers and the Saints and now face a bad Chiefs team that I think they will look over. Denver's averaging 4.8 YPR (8th) and 8.4 YPPA (6th). But, defensively, they allow 4.3 YPR (20th) and an astounding 320 YPG in the air (32nd) and 9.2 YPPA (30th).
No doubt the Chiefs aren't a good team, but you have to have the cahoones to bet bad teams in the NFL. The NFL is a funny league, good teams lose and bad teams cover! On the ground the Chiefs aren't that bad averaging 4.3 YPR (14th in NFL), but in the air they are poor averaging only 4.8 YPPA (31st). Thigpen has been trying to do his best Joe Montana impersonation, but frankly he has been stinking it up, but he can only get better against one of the worst pass defenses in the league. I don't see him passing too much, I think K.C. will run the ball to try to keep Denver's explosive offense off the field, which is great when you bet I big underdog. Defensively, K.C. is allowing 5.5 YPR (30th), but are good against the pass only allowing 153 YPG (4th in NFL). Denver will get their points, but I think K.C. will score enough on the poor Denver D to get the cover. As long as this line is 8 or higher this will be a 1* play.
K.C. 33 Denver 19
Like I said the NFL is a crazy league where the better team doesn't always win. Denver's offense didn't look as potent as it has and they had 4 turnovers that lead to this big upset. Denver's D looked bad as predicted and LJ was big gaining 198 yards on the ground and a TD. TOO EASY!!!
1* Tenn -3 over Minn
WINNER
Tennessee's defense is awesome and I don't see the Vikes scoring many points on the Titans. The only way the Vikings move the ball is the run, and the Titans will stop it! The Vikes average 4.9 YPR (7th in NFL), but the Titan only allow 3.7 YPR (10th in NFL). Betting against Frerotte on the road against a good D will always make you money. Frerotte took over for Jackson at QB last week and had an average game throwing for 204 yards on 16 of 28 passes with 1 TD and 1 INT. Frerotte is interception prone with an almost 1:1 TD:INT ratio during his career and with the Titan's stifling D I see him throwing a couple on Sunday (Frerotte's career completion percent is also a lowly 54%). The Titan's pass D is second best in the league allowing only 5.4 YPPA (2nd in the NFL). The Titan's offense is average gaining 4.3 YPR (15th in NFL) and 6.9 YPPA (16th in NFL). The Vikes have a good rush D allowing only 3.2 YPR (4th in NFL), but they allow 7.3 YPPA (18th in NFL). There is a good trend that is 24-5 ATS favoring Tennessee. This will be a low scoring game, but Tennessee's D is too good for Minnesota to move the ball consistently. I also like the under in this game, but I don't bet totals so I am going to hold off.
Tenn 30 Minn 17
Tenn's D looked great forcing 3 fumbles and an INT. Collins had a solid game throwing for 200 yards and no picks. Frerotte threw his usual interception leading to a Tenn TD. Nice victory for BWP!
Week 5
Week 5: 1-1
Week 5 +1.7 Units
2008 Record: 7-3 (70%)
Overall: +5.5 Units
1*: .66-.75 Unit
2*: 1 Unit
3*: 1.3-1.5 Units
4*: 1.5-1.66 Units
5*: 2+ Units
Line listed is the consensus line when game is posted, and these will be what I use for my record. View individual write ups for specific star changes if the line is different.
Week 5 Review
I only went 1-1 this week, but I had a huge win on my 5* play with Arizona so I was +1.7 (3 units on Arizona). I only have one or two 5* per year and this game was what a 5* should be...blowout city! I am now 7-3 for the year and +5.6 units overall. My Super System was 5-1 (winners on Chicago, Tampa Bay, N.Y. Giants, Pitt and Carolina and a loser on San Fran), unfortunately I could not take advantage of this for various reasons. I am looking forward to have an even bigger week 6!
5* Arizona Pick over Buffalo
WINNER
Here's what I want you to do. Pull out your American Express, take a red eye to Vegas on Saturday night, hit the craps tables (dice control on credit of course), buy a bottle of Johnnie Walker Blue, go to the Spearmint Rhino (drop byeweekpicks and you'll get 10% off admission), show up to the sports book (obviously after pulling an all-nighter) at 1:14 P.S.T., triple whatever your credit card bill says…AND LET IT RIDE ON THE CARDS!!! This is the first huge play of the year for BWP. Arizona is the better team overall, but I love them because this is a classic "NFL" game. Let me explain. Buffalo is 4-0, but don't let this fool you because they have only played on decent team (Jax) and three bad teams (Seattle, Oakland, St. Louis) and they came from behind in all their games. Arizona is coming off two road losses including a 56-35 blowout by the hands of the Jets last week, but Arizona had 7 turnovers (yes, 7)! This is the NFL and teams bounce back, especially coming home off two road losses and most recently an embarrassing loss. Also, the Cards were on the east coast for a week (they elected to stay there after playing Washington week 3) and they are now returning home. You have to realize that NFL players are like you and me. And you know how it feels after returning home from a week on business. Arizona will be in back in their comfort zone and ready for a victory. Also, you have to ask yourself why an undefeated team against a 2-2 team is a pick 'em or an underdog at some books. Simple, they know the smart money is going to come in on Zona so they have to even it out by persuading the public to bet Buffalo. Let's break down the stats. Buffalo averages 5.4 yards/play, but this is against teams that have combined to allow 5.9 yards/play. The Bills only average 3.5 YPR (28th in NFL) and will face a pretty good Zona D that allows 4 YPR (13th). In the air T. Edwards is having a pretty good year averaging 7.9 YPPA (7th in the NFL) and Zona's D allows 7.4 YPPA. Arizona has a better offense than the Bills. They average 6 yards/play versus teams that have allowed 5.5 yards/play. On the ground the Cardinals are poor averaging 3.2 YPR (32nd), but Buffalo allows 4.2 YPR (20th). Arizona's strength is their air game that is averaging 8.7 YPPA (3rd) and 290 YPG (4th). They will face a Bills D that is average allowing 6.2 YPPA (11th) and will be without CD McGee. The loss of Boldin will result in a slight decrease in the passing game of the Cards but he has very able back ups (Breaston had 9 catches for 120 yds last week). The line is right on the money, the Super System has Arizona as a 1 point favorite. There are no trends favoring either team. Arizona applies to a very strong 46-11 ATS trend because of their loss last week. But, this game isn't about stats or trends. It's about the cycles of the NFL and if a team has any heart (which I think Arizona does) they will rise to the challenge. Remember that even the best wager has about an 80% chance of winning because turnovers are unpredictable (75% are random and show no trend) so don't risk your entire bankroll; I am wagering 3 units. If Zona wins (or is even) in the turnover category I don't see them losing! This is a 5* up to Arizona -3.
Arizona 41 Buffalo 17
Ahhhhhh...just enjoying my Johnnie Blue at the Voodoo Lounge and staring at the Vegas lights. I hope you guys fired on the Cardinals. This was how a 5* is supposed to be...EASY! The Game was never in question. The Cardinals were ahead and in control the entire game. It didn't hurt that starting QB Trent Edwards got knocked out of the game, but even without this Zona was an easy winner. Zona had the ball for 36 minutes compared to the Bills 24. Warner was awesome throwing 33 of 42 for 250 yards and 2 TD's with no picks. Buffalo had 4 turnovers. Call BWP rainman...AKA Mr. make it rain on them books!
3* San Francisco +3 over New England
Remember you heard it from byeweekpicks first…San Fran is a better team than New England! I know, you think I'm crazy, but the stats don't lie. Clear your mind of the 2007 Patriots and concentrate on this year only. New England's offense is clearly not the same as last year without Brady. They are only averaging 16.3 PPG (28th in the NFL) versus teams that have combined to allow 25 PPG!!! They are averaging only 3.9 YPR (21st) and 6.3 YPPA (24th). Defensively, they are not much better. They are allowing an astounding 5 YPR (29th in NFL) and 8.1 YPPA (28th in NFL). They are the only team in league that is worse than 20th in all the offensive and defensive categories. Yes, the only team!
I have rode San Fran the last two weeks and they lost to New Orleans last week primarily because of red zone turnovers. On the offensive side of the ball they are very strong gaining 4.7 YPR (9th in NFL). O'Sullivan is having a good year overall but struggled last week because he was sacked 6 times. This won't be a problem this week as New England only averages 2 sacks/game. The Niners are 4th in the league with 8.7 YPPA. Defensively, they are also very strong allowing 4 YPR (12th) and 6.8 YPPA (11th). This is he first game the Super System (41-22, 66% last year) comes into play because it has the Niners as a 4.5 point favorite. There are no trends favoring either team. The only reason this is not a higher star is because Belichick had 2 weeks to prepare because New England is coming off a bye, but this will not deter me from taking the Niners as a 3* play. Take advantage of this lop-sided line while people still think this is the 2007 Patriots.
N.E. 30 San Fran 21
Despite being dominated, the Niners still had the chance for a backdoor cover twice late in the game, but O'Sullivan blew it throwing it out of bounds on 4th down. After a hot start this season O'Sullivan looks bad throwing 3 picks today. The Pats controlled the clock holding the ball for nearly 40 minutes. San Fran could not get any ball movement after the first quarter (they led 14-7). Gore had only 54 yards on 12 carries. It looked bright early...but dark late!
Week 6
Week 6: 3-2
2008 Record: 10-5 (66%)
2008: +6.2 Units
Week 6 Review
Had another profitable week going 3-2 and a money line winner on the Browns monday night (not included in record). This brings my overall record to 10-5 (66%) and +6.2 units. At this point if you are wagering 5% of your bankroll per 1 unit play you would be getting over 30% return on you original investment! I am looking for an even bigger week 7.
1*: .66-.75 Unit
2*: 1 Unit
3*: 1.3-1.5 Units
4*: 1.5-1.66 Units
5*: 2+ Units
Line listed is the consensus line when game is posted, and these will be what I use for my record. View individual write ups for specific star changes if the line is different.
Cincinatti is a no bet because Palmer is out
1* Cleveland +8 over N.Y. Giants
WINNER
The Brownies are in a perfect situation for an upset in this game! They are coming off a bye and are a Monday night home dog. The Browns have looked half asleep on the field, but if you can't get up for a Monday night game you are gutless. The Giants are 4-0 and are one of the top teams in the league, but as I've said many times before the better team does not always win/cover. The Giants average 5.8 YPR (1st) and 7.8 YPPA (8th). I still don't have confidence in Eli. The media has terrible short term memory loss. It was less than a year ago that Eli was "the worst QB in the league" after he threw 4 picks versus Minnesota. Now they are talking about how he is better than Peyton (yeah right). The Giants have played one of the easiest schedules in the league; they have faced Washington (this was week 1 when the Skins weren't nearly as good as they are now), Cinci, St. Louis, and Seattle.
The Browns haven't had the explosive offense they had last year, but I think it's only a matter of time that they get back to business. Cleveland is averaging 3.5 YPR (28th) and only 4.6 YPPA. Stallworth is likely to return this week so D. Anderson will have another option. Defensively, the Browns are allowing 19.5 PPG, but they have played one of the toughest schedules in the league (played Balt, Pitt, and Dallas) and these teams have combined to average 21 PPG. Their run D is average allowing 4.1 YPR (16th) and their pass D allows 7.4 YPPA (23rd). There are 6 strong trends favoring the Browns including a great 43-17 ATS Monday night trend going against the Giants because of their big win last week. I think the Cleveland Clowns return to the Cleveland Browns this week. I also recommend taking the Browns money line at +300 for 0.1 units.
Cleveland 35 N.Y. Giants 14
WOW!!! Blowout city by an 8 point dog! That's what I like to see. The NFL (National F'd up League) is great, isn't it. As predicted, the Brownies played like this was their super bowl. Eli looked like he did less than a year ago throwing 3 interceptions, and after those interceptions looking like he was going to cry. The Brownies got the easy win for the cover and money line win!
2* Tampa Bay -1.5 over Carolina
WINNER
Carolina may be 4-1, but I don't think they are in the top tier of the league. They are also a lot better at home than on the road where they lost to Minnesota and barely beat S.D. (this was week 1). Carolina's offense is average gaining 3.9 YPR (20th) and 7.7 YPPA (9th). Defensively, they are pretty good allowing 3.6 YPR (12th) and 5.4 YPPA (2nd). They have won back to back games and now facing a division foe on the road in Tampa which is one of the hardest places to play. In fact, Tampa is 25-6-1 ATS at home in games where they are favored by less than 3. Tampa is 3-2 with both losses on the road. Last week they lost a close matchup to Denver and I think they will bounce back big this week. Garcia is likely to start and I think he is an upgrade from Griese (Griese QB rating this year is 65 and Garcia's career rating is 87 including 95 when he started in Tampa in 2007). Plus, Tampa has a great running game averaging 5.3 YPR (3rd) which will free up receivers for Garcia. Tampa is just as good defensively as the Panthers; they are allowing 18.8 PPG versus teams that have averaged 26 PPG. They allow only 3.7 YPR (9th) and 7.1 YPPA (18th). The number is on the money as my system has Tampa -2. Tampa is the better team and they are at home where they are dominant...take them as a 2* as long as line is 3 or less.
TB 27 Carolina 3
This game was never in question; TB was in charge the whole time. Garcia played solid completing 15 of 20 passes with no picks. Delhome boy on the other hand threw 3 picks. Dunn played well too running for 120 yards. Tamps is money at home! Easy pickens!
1* St. Louis +13.5 over Washington
WINNER
Cardinal rule number 4: go against the media. The media has crowned Washington as the best team since the '64 Browns and St. Louis as the worst team ever. I do think Washington is an above average team and the Rams are not good, but Washington is coming off two HUGE wins as road dogs versus Dallas and Philly and the Rams apply to a 25-3 ATS trend that has been money throughout the years. Washington's offense is only slightly better than average. They score 22 PPG, but their opponents have allow a combined 21 PPG. Washington is averaging 4.3 YPR (12th) and 7 YPPA (16th). Defensively they allow 3.6 YPR (14th) and 6.5 YPPA (10th). St. Louis' stats aren't pretty. They gain 4 YPR (16th) and 6.2 YPPA (24th). Defensively they allow 4.8 YPR and 9.2 YPPA. A big reason for the Rams demise and the Skins success is turnover ratio; Washington is +6 and the Rams are -3. Winless teams play good after their bye and the Skins are in a let down position. Don't be afraid…take the Rams as a 1*.
St. Louis 19 Washingon 14
What a feeling when a double digit dog wins outright. Like I said the best team doesn't always win...Im just glad we saw it coming.
3* Baltimore +4.5 over Indy
Indy is clearly not the team they have been in the past. They are 2-2 including a win from the football gods (Sage didn't help) last week against the Texans and a late win against Jax. Indy's rushing game is poor averaging only 3.6 YPR (26th) and 68 YPG (last in league). Manning just hasn't looked in sync with his receivers this year as he is only averaging 8.7 YPPA (19th). A big reason for Indy's struggling offense is because the offensive line has not been consistent (3 different combinations in last 3 weeks). I don't see Indy moving the ball against a Baltimore D that is one of the best in the league. Baltimore is ranked first in both rush and pass D only allowing 2.8 YPR and an amazing 4.9 YPPA. On the defensive side of the ball the oalts are also below average. They are last in league allowing 189 YPG rushing (and 4.9 YPr, 26th). They are also allowing 6.9 YPPA (14th).
Baltimore is 2-2 and coming off a tough loss at home against the Titans. Baltimore has lost to two good teams (Pitt and Tenn), while Indy lost to Carolina and Minnesota (both average teams). As mentioned above the Ravens D is amazing allowing only 14 PPG (3rd in NFL) versus teams that have allowed a combined 18 PPG. Baltimore's passing game is poor only gaining 5.7 YPPA (27th), but they average 154 YPG on the ground (4th in the NFL), and this week will be going against the worst rush D in the league. I don't see the Ravens throwing much, I think they will run the ball often and keep Manning off the field. Overall, they average 18 PPG, but this is against defenses that have allowed only 16.6 PPG, so they are better than average. My Super System has Baltimore as a 4 point favorite, so the line is way off! Simply, Baltimore's has a much better defense and running game and is too strong for Indy and I see them covering this spread. This is a 3* at 3.5 and above and a 2* at 3.
Ind 31 Balt 3
Simply...Blowout. Baltimore never had a chance in this game from the get go. Baltimore had 5 turnovers compared to the Colts zero. Manning looked like his old self and ate up the Ravens D. Flacco just stunk! Ugly.
1* Houston -3 over Miami
Houston is coming off an ugly loss versus Indy, but this week they will have Shaub back and are in prime position to get their first win. The Phins look like an improved team this year, but coming off two wins as an underdog they are in a huge let down position. The Stats are very similar between these two teams. Miami averages 4.3 YPR (11th) and 7.2 YPPA (14th). On the defensive side of the ball they allow 3.3 YPR (5th), but are very bad against the pass allowing 8 YPPA (29th). Houston averages 4.4 YPR (11th) and 6.6 YPPA (21st). Slaton has been named the starting RB and he has been playing very good averaging 5 YPR this year. Defensively, they allow 4.5 YPR and 7.4 YPPA (22nd). Houston has played on of the toughest schedules in the league having to travel to Pitt, Tenn, and Jax. They are finally at home against a mediocre opponent and I think they will take advantage of this. On the other hand Miami beat S.D. and N.E. but I wouldn't overreact to this because both of these teams are overrated this year. How soon we forget that they got blown out at Arizona and lost to the Jets at home. There are no trends favoring either team. I like Houston to get their first win and take them as a 1*.
Houston 29 Miami 28
This was DARK!!! Houston had numberous opportunities for the cover. First, A. Johnson fumbled on the one yard line. Then with 3 minutes left and Houston up 1 Miami threw an INT and Houston ran it down to the 30 and likely the cover with a FG but they fumbled. And just to twist the knife they went for 2 with 3 seconds left for the push but got stuffed ! This one hurt, but you have to have short term memory loss when you are betting.
Week 7
Week 7: 2-0
2008 Record: 12-5 (71%)
2008: +7.7 Units
1*: .66-.75 Unit
2*: 1 Unit
3*: 1.3-1.5 Units
4*: 1.5-1.66 Units
5*: 2+ Units
Line listed is the consensus line when game is posted, and these will be what I use for my record. View individual write ups for specific star changes if the line is different.
3* Chicago -3 over Minnesota
WINNER
2* Carolina -3 over New Orleans
WINNER
Week 8
Week 8: 3-2-1
2008 Record: 15-7-1 (68%)
2008: +8.7 Units
1*: .66-.75 Unit
2*: 1 Unit
3*: 1.3-1.5 Units
4*: 1.5-1.66 Units
5*: 2+ Units
Line listed is the consensus line when game is posted, and these will be what I use for my record. View individual write ups for specific star changes if the line is different.
4* Miami +1.5 over Buffalo
WINNER
Miami 25 Buffalo 16
This game went just as planned. Buffalo looked like a team coming off a big win and committed 4 turnovers compared to Miami's 1. Pennington had a heck of a day throwing for 22 of 30 for 315 yards and no picks. Take this 4* to the bank!!!
3* Carolina -4 over Arizona
PUSH
Carolina 27 Arizona 23
I marked this as an L when Carolina was down 17-3, but we got a gift from the gambling gods with the push here. Arizona missed a PAT during the 3rd quarter (which are made about 96% of the time)! Sometimes you need a little luck!
3* Cincinnati +10 over Houston
Houston 35 Cinci 6
Cinci looked like a winless team in this game committing 3 tunovers and only having the ball for 25 minutes. I said the only thing that made me nervous was Fitzpatrick and he proved me right throwing 2 picks.
1* Philadelphia -9 over Atlanta
WINNER
Phi 27 Atl 14
This was a great backdoor cover. After a mistaken fumble call by the Falcons and with under 2 minutes left Westbrook was basically running out the clock and broke a 40 yard run for a TD. But, it was basically getting back the points they lost after getting stopped on 1st and goal from the 1 to go up 2 TD's. Matt Ryan looked like a rookie throwing 2 TD's including one in the endzone. Nice win for BWP!!
1* KC +14 over NY Jets
WINNER
NYJ 28 KC 24
I have a lot of follower asking me why do you hate Brett Favre, I don't hate him but I will tell you...BRETT FAVRE STINKS!!! Favre was his usual self throwing 3 picks and barely getting the win againt the pathetic Chiefs. I foresee alot of money to be made against the NY Bretts!
1* Indy +4 over Tenn
This is the perfect scenario for upset city...everyone is on the Titans bandwagon and off the Colts. The Titans are unbeaten and have covered 6 straight. There have been 9 teams since 1980 that covered the spread in each of their first 6 games these teams are 1-9 straight up and ATS (only team that did win and cover was NE last year). Don't get me wrong, I think Tennessee is one of the best teams in the league, but they are in a perfect letdown spot here. Tenn averages 4.5 YPR (7th), but only 6.3 YPPA (23rd). Defensively they are ranked 7th and 3rd versus the run and pass, respectively. Indy's run game has been struggling averaging only 3.3 YPR and Manning is averaging only 6.8 YPPA. Defensively, Indy allows 4.4 YPR (23rd) and only 176 YPG in the air (3rd). After a blowout loss at G.B. Manning will have his team ready for Monday night! Another reason the Titans are undefeats is because they lead the league with a +6 turnover ratio. There is an 86-40 straight up winner money line trend on the Colts anda 15-6 ATS trend. Unfortunately, there is a 37-4 SU winner trend on the Titans that negates these, so this will be a 1*.
Ten 31 Ind 21
Week 9
Week 9: 1-1
2008 Record: 16-8-1 (67%)
2008: +7.3 Units
1*: .66-.75 Unit
2*: 1 Unit
3*: 1.3-1.5 Units
4*: 1.5-1.66 Units
5*: 2+ Units
Line listed is the consensus line when game is posted, and these will be what I use for my record. View individual write ups for specific star changes if the line is different.
Week 9 Review
I was 1-1 this week, but had my first losing day because I lost my 5* on Denver. This was a tough loss as Denver shot themselves in the foot and had three turnovers. I am still 16-8-1(66%) and +7.3 on the year and look to bounce back big week 10!
5* Denver -3 over Miami
Miami 26 Denver 17
This is not how a 5* should go. Like I said you cannot predict turnovers and that's what killed us here. I expected Miami to score 20+ points but I thought Denver would score 30+. Cutler threw 3 picks...you cannot win if you lose the turnover battle! It's tough to lose a 5* but you have to come back big the next week.
1* Cincinnati +7.5 over Jacksonville
WINNER
Cinci 21 Jax 19
Like I said teams are never as bad as they seem. Cinci won this game despite having 1 more turnover than Jax. Cinci had 310 yards vs 280 total yards for the Jags.
Week 10
1*: .66-.75 Unit
2*: 1 Unit
3*: 1.3-1.5 Units
4*: 1.5-1.66 Units
5*: 2+ Units
Week 10: 0-2
2008 Record: 16-10-1 (62%)
2008: +6.1 Units
Line listed is the consensus line when game is posted, and these will be what I use for my record. View individual write ups for specific star changes if the line is different.
Week 10 Review
I had my first losing record week going 0-2 on both my 1* plays. As you can see this was a tough week as I only had two plays. Week 11 looks promising and it looks like I may have a 4* play! I am now 16-10 (62%) and +6.1 units on the year. I look to have a big bouce back this week.
1* Philadelphia -3 over N.Y. Giants
NYG 36 Phi 31
The Eagles got dominated and only had the ball for 20 minutes compared to the Giants at 40 minutes. Otherwise, the stats were even with both teams committing 2 turnovers. The difference was the ball control for the Giants.
1* Chicago +3 Over Tenn
Chicago 21 Tenn 14
Well, I was right that the Bears were going to stop the run as the Titans only had 20 yards rushing, but I didn't think Collins would throw for 290. Chicago couldn't get anything going offensively and started on their 10 multiple times. The Gross looked bad throwing for only 170 yards.
Week 11
Week 11: 4-2
2008 Record: 20-12-1 (63%)
2008: +8.5 Units
Week 11 Review
I got back on track bigtime going 4-2 this week including a huge 4* winner on Tampa Bay! We had to sweat out Tampa a little, but got easy wins on GB, Denver, and SF. This brings my overall record to 20-12-1 (63%) and +8.5 units! I am looking forward to having another big week 12.
1*: .66-.75 Unit
2*: 1 Unit
3*: 1.3-1.5 Units
4*: 1.5-1.66 Units
5*: 2+ Units
Line listed is the consensus line when game is posted, and these will be what I use for my record. View individual write ups for specific star changes if the line is different.
4* T.B. -4 over Minnesota
WINNER
TB 19 Minn 13
I was never worried about the cover in this game...ok maybe I was a little bit. With 3:30 left Minne fumbled the kick off and TB converted a FG to get the cover! If you look at the game overall though, TB dominated gaining 360 yds versus Minne 210. They held AP to 85 yards. Big 4* win!!!
2* Washington +1.5 over Dallas
Dallas 14 Wash 10
2* S.F. -6.5 over St. Louis
WINNER
SF 36 St. Louis 16
This game was never in question. SF was leading 35-3 at half and never looked back...easy winner.
1* G.B. -3.5 over Chicago
WINNER
GB 37 Chicago 3
Total domination!!! GB had 430 yds compared to Chicago's 210. Rogers had a very good game throwing for 230 yds and Grant tore up Chi's D for 145 yds.
1* Jax +3 over Tenn
Tenn 24 Jax 14
1* Denver +6.5 over Atlanta
WINNER
Denver 24 Atlanta 20
This was a very evenly matched game, but Denver got a stop at the end for the SU win. J. Cutler had 215 yd with one TD and no picks. Another easy winner!
Week 12
Week 12: 1-3
2008 Record: 21-15-1 (58%)
2008: +7.5 Units
Week 12 Review
It was a tough week for BWP going 1-3, but this was only my second losing week this year. BWP's record is still at 60% and +7.5 units! After my last losing week I was 4-2 and am looking for another big rebound!
1*: .66-.75 Unit
2*: 1 Unit
3*: 1.3-1.5 Units
4*: 1.5-1.66 Units
5*: 2+ Units
Line listed is the consensus line when game is posted, and these will be what I use for my record. View individual write ups for specific star changes if the line is different.
1* N.E. -21 over Miami
WINNER
N.E. 48 Miame 28
New England beat up the Phins in this game and Cassel had another great game throwing for 415 yards. They held the Phins to only 60 yards rushing. Easy winner!
1* Detroit +7.5 over T.B.
T.B. 38 Detroit 20
When you are up 17-0 and +7.5 you should be able to go to bed...but not in the National F'd up League. Detroit got dominated aftery they were up 17-0. Culpepper had a stellar day throwing 2 picks and 120 yards. Detroit may go winless.
1* Phil +1.5 over Baltimore
Balt 36 Phi 7
Andy Reid: tell me why you take a perrenial pro-bowler out when you are only down 3 at half. This score is lopsided because of turnovers. Philly had 5 while the Ravens had 0. The Eagles held the Ravens to only 240 total yards. Kolb obviously wasn't the answer as he threw 2 picks in the second half..ugly.
1* Carolina +1.5 over Atlanta
Atl 45 Car 28
I'm really not sure how Carolina got blown out in this game. They won the turnover battle, yards battle, and time of possession. But they lost where it counts the scoreboard.
Week 13
Week 13: 4-2
2008 Record: 25-17-1 (60%)
2008: +11.1 Units
Week 13 Recap
What a great week! Byeweekpicks was 4-2 plus two money line wins at +250 on Denver and San Fran to gain 3.6 units on this week alone. This brings BWP's record to 25-17 (60%) and +11.1 units on the year. With just four weeks left in the regular season I look forward to ending strong.
1*: .66-.75 Unit
2*: 1 Unit
3*: 1.3-1.5 Units
4*: 1.5-1.66 Units
5*: 2+ Units
Line listed is the consensus line when game is posted, and these will be what I use for my record. View individual write ups for specific star changes if the line is different.
2* Philadelphia -3 over Arizona
WINNER
Phi 48 Arizona 20
This was straight blowout city! I love when the public and media doubt t a good player and skew the line. McNabb killed it going 27/39 with 260 yds and 4 TD's. Arizona continued its road struggle. This game was too easy...should have had a 4* on this one but we'll take the easy 2* winner.
1* S.F. +7 over Buffalo
WINNER.
SF 10 Buff 3
AHHHHH...nothing like a +270 money line winner!!! Buff actually outgained the Niners by 150 yards, but could not punch it in. The Niners will probably continue to be underrated and we have to ride them to the bank!
1* Denver +8 over N.Y. Jets
WINNER
Denver 34 N.Y. Jets 17
Is the NFL great or what??? Denver loses to Oakland, then beats the "great" Jets. As you can see, the lines are all public perception. The Jets allowed Denver to gain almost 500 total yards. My main man Brett looked like he usually does throwing a pick and throwing 23 of 43. EASY MONEY LINE WINNER!!!
1* Minn -4 over Chicago
WINNER
Minn 34 Chi 14
Kle Orton had a great game throwin for 189 yards with 3 picks. As predicted AP ate up the Bears D for 130 yds and 1 TD. Too easy!
1* Tampa Bay -4 over New Orleans
TB 23 N.O. 20
Nothing is worse than a win but no cover (usually only happens 1-2 times per week). New Orleans had 3 turnovers compared to TB's 1. If you told me that it would be pouring and NO would have 3 TO's I would have fired on TB...and would have lost. Darkness!!!
1* Washington +4 over N.Y. Giants
NYG 23 Wash 7
This game never had a chance to cover. Eli ate up the Skins D for 320. Wash had 2 TO's compared to the Giants 1 TO. I smell a huge play on the Giants if they make the Super Bowl.
Week 14
Week 14: 3-1
2008 Record: 28-18-1 (61%)
2008: +13.4 Units
Week 14 Recap
BWP had another winning week going 3-1 and gaining 2.3 units. I also had another money line winner at +250 with the Eagles. This brings byeweekpick's record to 28-18-1 (61%) and +13.4 units. This means if your wagering 6% per unit you have nearly doubled your bankroll this year (in only 12 weeks)...that's a lot better than the S&P 500! Only three more weeks to the regular season...let's keep winning!
1*: .66-.75 Unit
2*: 1 Unit
3*: 1.3-1.5 Units
4*: 1.5-1.66 Units
5*: 2+ Units
Line listed is the consensus line when game is posted, and these will be what I use for my record. View individual write ups for specific star changes if the line is different.
2* New Orleans -3 over Atlanta
WINNER
NO 29 Atl 25
This was a pretty evenly matched game, but the Saints came through in the end with a big TD for the cover. Both teams had exactly 414 yards and T.O.P. was also close. The differnce came when the Saints were finally able to step the Falcons to get the win.
1* Phil +7 over NY Giants
WINNER
Phi 20 NYG 14
I love the media! 2 weeks ago the Eagles were dead now they are beating the reigning champs. McNabb had a solid game throwing for 200 yards with no picks. Eli on the other hand only threw for 120 yds with one pick. The Eagles held the ball for 10 more minutes. Easy winner and a money line win!!!
1* SF +5 over NY Jets
WINNER
SF 24 NYJ 14
This was totally domination city!!! The Niners held the ball for 40 minutes. They even lost the turnover battle 2 to 1 and still dominated. The Niners had 380 total yards compared to the Jets 180.
1* Washington +6 over Balt
Balt 24 Wash 10
This game should have been closer than the score indicates, but Balt scored a defensive TD off a fumble. Campbell had 2 costly INT's. Washington continues to disappoint.
Week 15
Week 15: 0-1-1
2008: 28-19-2
1*: .66-.75 Unit
2*: 1 Unit
3*: 1.3-1.5 Units
4*: 1.5-1.66 Units
5*: 2+ Units
Line listed is the consensus line when game is posted, and these will be what I use for my record. View individual write ups for specific star changes if the line is different.
Week 15 Review
I only had two plays this week and was 0-1-1. It is frustrating because I was 3-1 in the other games I liked (S.F., Houston, Detroit, and Oakland). This has been an ongoing trend this year, so it seems that I should be playing more games. I am now 28-19-2 (60%) and +12.3 units on the year! It looks like I have one of my biggest weeks coming up as I may have six or more plays!
2* Arizona -3 over Minnesota
Minn 35 Arizona 14
I was on the wrong side here. Zona was completely flat after their division win. They have up 400 yards and made T. Jackson look like Joe Montana. Ugly!
2* Chicago -3 over New Orleans
PUSH
Chi 27 NO 24
The Saints actually outgained the Bears by over 100 yards and Orton threw two picks so we got a luck push here. Good thing that Brees also threw two picks to keep them in the game.
Week 16
Week 16: 4-3
2008 Record: 32-22-2 (59%)
2008: +12.9 Units
1*: .66-.75 Unit
2*: 1 Unit
3*: 1.3-1.5 Units
4*: 1.5-1.66 Units
5*: 2+ Units
Line listed is the consensus line when game is posted, and these will be what I use for my record. View individual write ups for specific star changes if the line is different.
2* N.Y. Giants -3 over Carolina
WINNER
NYG 23 Carolina 28
3* K.C +4 over Miami
Mia 38 KC 31
2* 6 point Tease:
WINNER
Tennessee +8 over Pittsburgh
LET ME PREFACE THIS BY SAYING...NEVER TEASE! Ok...maybe never. I tease about once per year and sometimes in the playoffs. 90% of the time if you win the tease you would have won those games individually, the 6 points doesn't matter. I feel that NE will not lose, so I think of it as adding 6 points to Tennessee. I like Tennesse, but their defensive linemen being out worries me, but I don't think they are going to get blown out so I love them +8. Pittsburgh cannot keep winning these close games! They are coming off three consecutive hard fought games (NE, Dallas, Baltimore). Now they have to go on the road and face another smash-mouth football team in Tennessee. I don't pu too much stock into their 3 consecutive wins. At NE they were +5 in turnovers and against Dallas they were +2. After Tennessee won the division, they were put back on level ground by Houston last week and will get back to their form. Pitt won't be able to run the ball against a Titans D that allows only 3.7 YPR (8th). If Haynesworth was playing I would have Tenn as a 3*. The Steelers running game has been bad this year averaging only 3.6 YPR (29th). Big Ben has never impressed me and this week he will have to face a Titans D that is second in the league allowing only 5.7 YPPA and is 6th in sacks/game. The Steelers are 1st in pass D and rush D, but their competition hasn't been good and I see Tenn running on them. The Titans are 1st in the league in sacks/game allowed which will give Collins time to pass. My Super System has the Titans -3.3 and there is a solid 209-117 trend favoring the Titans. I don't see either team moving the ball well, so 8 points is beautiful.
Ten 31 Pitt 14
N.E. -2 over Arizona
For my other side of the tease I'm taking the Pats. I don't see them losing in the cold to Arizona. Zona locked up their division and they have lost by an average of 22 points on the east coast. With the snow flurries the Pats will be able to run (4.5 YPR) against a Zona D that allows 4 YPR (16th). Zona on the other hand has no running game averaging only 3.4 YPR (31st). Bellichick will have his troops ready in this battle.
NE 47 Ariz 7
1* T.B. -3 over San Diego
SD 41 TB 24
1* Minnesota -3 over Atlanta
ATL 24 Min 17
1* Seattle +3.5 over N.Y. Jets
WINNER
Sea 13 NYJ 3
1* Oakland +7 over Houston
WINNER
Oak 27 Hou 16
Week 17
Week 17: 5-0-1 !!!
2008 Record: 37-22-3 (63%)
2008: +16.6 Units
Week 17 Review
What a way to close the regular season...5-0-1!!! This brings my overall record to 37-22-3, an amazing 63%. I am +16.6 units which means that if you are wagering 6% on you one unit plays you have doubled your investment! I look forward to continue this streak into the playoffs and expect to have a 3* play on the wildcard round.
1*: .66-.75 Unit
2*: 1 Unit
3*: 1.3-1.5 Units
4*: 1.5-1.66 Units
5*: 2+ Units
Line listed is the consensus line when game is posted, and these will be what I use for my record. View individual write ups for specific star changes if the line is different.
2* St. Louis +15 over Atlanta
WINNER
Atl 31 St. Louis 27
As predicted, Atl looked bad! They committed 3 turnovers and should have lost the game, but the cover was never in question.
1* N.O. +3 over Carolina
WINNER
Car 33 NO 31
What a win!! Down 30-10 in the 4th quarter the Saints made a big comeback to lead 31-30. Carolina came back to kick a FG for the win, but the Sainst got the cover!!!
1* San Fran -3 over Washington
PUSH
SF 27 Was 24
The Niners looked good in this game outgaining the Skins by 100 yards but couldn't get the cover. Hill had a pretty good game throwing for 250 yards with 1 pick. Campbell only have 150 yards in the air. I'll take the push.
1* Philadelphia -1 over Dallas
WINNER
Phil 44 Dal 6
Blowout city! I know that Dallas would be flat after losing to Balt last week, but wow! The Eagles won in every facet of the game and the win/cover was never in question.
1* Houston -3 over Chicago
WINNER
Hou 31 Chi 24
The Texans outgained the Bears by 170 to get the big win here. Shaub ate up the Bears D throwing for 330 with 2 TD's and no picks. Easy winner!
1* SD -7 over Denver
WINNER
SD 52 Den 21
I didn't think Denver could stop the Chargers offense, and this was evident. The Chargers had 500 yards and Denver had no answer for LT!
Wildcard Playoffs
Wildcard: 1-0
2008 Record: 38-22-3 (63%)
2008: +18.3 Units
1*: .66-.75 Unit
2*: 1 Unit
3*: 1.3-1.5 Units
4*: 1.5-1.66 Units
5*: 2+ Units
Line listed is the consensus line when game is posted, and these will be what I use for my record. View individual write ups for specific star changes if the line is different.
3* Philadelphia -3 over Minnesota
WINNER
Byeweekpicks has a saying about the playoffs...true colors! This means that in the playoffs players and teams true colors come out. Who do you want to bet on an experienced D. McNabb or Tavaris Jackson? Exactly! I very rarely bet road favorites, but I love the Eagles. This feels like fate for Philly. They needed the Bucs to lose to the lowly Raiders to make the playoffs and that is just what happened. McNabb was benched for the second half against the Ravens and has come back big time since them and I think he continues to roll against a Viking D that allows 7.1 YPPA (21st in NFL). Minnesota's rush D is good (3.4 YPR), but McNabb is going to eat them alive. I want to know how Minne will score. The Vikes average 4.5 YPR (6th), but the Eagles allow only 3.5 YPR (4th). In the air the Eagles allow only 6.7 YPPA (4th) and they are #3 in the league in sacks. The Eagles are going to bring the heat to T. Jackson and I think he is going to throw a couple picks. My Super System has the Eagles as a 2 point fav so this line is on the money. Philly rolls!
Phil 26 Minn 14
I knew Philly would win this game, but I was worried about the cover at halftime. T Jackson came through with the pick 6 as expected! The Eagles came with the heat all game and Jackson looked lost. The held AP to 83 yards rushing. After they got the FG with 4 minutes left the cover was iced! Big 3* win by PHILLY!!!!!!!!!
Arizona -2 vs. Atlanta- No Opinion
I like Arizona, but not enough to wager on them. They have been too inconsistent as of late, but it is tough for a rookie QB (Ryan) to win on the road in the playoffs so that is why I like them as a lean.
Arizona 30 Atlanta 24
I didn't think a rookie QB could get it done in the desert and he threw 2 int's. Zona's offense looked great gainig 360 yards.
Miami +3.5 vs. Baltimore-No Opinion
This one is too tough to call. Miami shold have trouble moving the ball against a Balt D that is 5th versus the run (3.6 YPR) and 2nd against the pass (5.9 YPPA). Balt's offense is mediocre averaging 4 YPR and 7.1 YPPa (14th) versus a Miami d that allows 4.1 YPr and 7 YPPA. Offensively the Phins run game averages 4.2 YPR (15th) and 7.7 YPPA (7th). My Super System has Balt -4.5. Miami has played one of the weakest schedules-30th in the league. When these thow eams played earlier this year it was a very even game and Balt scored a defensive TD winnig 27-13. I would like to bet against a rookie QB that is a 3.5 point fav in the playoffs (as we saw in Ryan for the Falcons yesterday), but Balt's D is tough so I am staying away.
Bal 27 Miami 9
Baltimore made Pennington look like the rookie here forcing him to throw 4 picks. Flacco only completed 9 of 23 passes for 140 yards.
SD +2.5 vs. Indy- No Opinion
My supersystem has SD -2.9 making them a play, but I cannot bet against Indy they are too hot (9 staight wins).
SD 23 Indy 17
This was a great game and Diego go the win in OT. I wish I would have trusted SD after the line shifted so much so that SD applied to supersystem, but I didn't take advantage.
Divisional Playoffs
Divisional : 0-1
2008 Record: 38-23-3 (62%)
2008: +17.2 Units
Divisional Playoff Review
Had a tough loss on Tennessee this week. They dominated the game but turnovers killed them. This brings Byeweekpicks' record to 38-23-3 and +17.2 units meaning that you would have doubled your bankroll this year. There are only three NFL games left and I am looking forward to going out with a couple winners!
1*: .66-.75 Unit
2*: 1 Unit
3*: 1.3-1.5 Units
4*: 1.5-1.66 Units
5*: 2+ Units
Line listed is the consensus line when game is posted, and these will be what I use for my record. View individual write ups for specific star changes if the line is different.
2* Tennessee -2.5 over Baltimore
Tennessee has the better defense, better offense, and more experienced QB in this matchup making them a 2* play. Baltimore is coming off a win at Miami, but they forced five turnovers and that won't be the case this week because Tennessee protects the ball well (17 giveaways, 2nd during the regular season). Baltimore will not benefit from defensive touchdowns and will therefore have to rely on their offense, which is not impressive. They average 4 YPR (21st during regular season) and 7.1 YPPA (14th during regular season). Flacco does not impress me! There have only been 3 (out of 8) rookie QB's (Flacco, Roethlisberger, Shaun King) to win a playoff game. Neither Roethlisberger or King won their second game and Big Ben got blown out 41-27 at NE. Flacco's numbers this year are not impressive with only 14 TD's and 12 INT's for a rating of 80.3. Even against a mediocre Miami D he only managed 9-23 passing for 135 yards. We know that Balt’s D is good allowing 3.7 YPR and 5.9 YPPA. I think Tennessee’s D is better; their numbers are similar allowwin 3.7 YPR and 6 YPPA, but more importantly they average 3 sacks/game. They will put pressure on Flacco and cause him to throw picks. The Titans offense is better than Balt’s averaging 4.3 YPR and 6.7 YPPA. They protect Collins allowing only 0.8 sacks/game, and Collins has proven that he can do more than manage games this year. Baltimore is 2-5 against playoff teams this year and when playing good teams they struggle (scoring 10 against NYG, 10 and 9 against Pitt, 3 against Indy). Tenn was 4-1 against playoff teams and their only loss was in week 17 against Indy where they rested most of their starters. These two teams faced off in week and Tenn won 13-10 and it was a very even game. Tennessee is expected to get Haynesworth and Vanden Bosch back this week which will be a boost to stop Balt’s run offense. The line is close; my Super System has the Titans –3.5. Although guest handicapper T.B. AKA "The Bookie Killer" is weary of this pick I like the Titans. Tennessee wins this game in a low scoring battle.
Balt 13 Ten 10
This was a tough on to swallow. Tennessee totally dominated this game and they were the better team! Tennessee had 391 total yards to 211 total yards and outgained Balt 5.5 yards/play to 4.1 yards/play. They held Balt to 50 rushing yards and Flacco to 160 yards. They ate up Balt's "great" defense consistently. The on category they didn't win is turnovers giving away 2 fumbles in the red zone. That was the difference. Fumbles are simply bad luck, but that's gambling. Tennessee was the right side here, but they didn't get the cover.
Carolina -10 vs. Arizona- No Opinion
The Cardinals struggle on the road and have been outscored 23-31 away this season and getting blown out several times. They will probably have a tough time scoring this week especially if weather is a factor. Carolina’s run D is not that strong (4.4 YPR, 23rd), but their pass D allows only 6.5 YPR (7th) which will be able to slow down Arizona’s main source of offense. Arizona cannot run the ball (3.5 YPR,31st), but their pass offense is strong throwing for 7.7 YPPA (6th). Carolina should be able to move the ball on Zona. They average 4.8 YPR (2nd) and 7.9 YPPA (4th) and will face a Zona D that allows 4 YPR and 7.2 YPPA. Carolina is undefeated at home and have won 29-14 at home this season. My Super System has the line at 8.8. These teams faced week 8 and Arizona played well gaining 425 total yards versus Carolina’s 350. Carolina was able to stop the run giving up only 50 yards, but the allowed Warner to throw for 375 yards. I think the Panthers win, but Carolina does not play well as a big favor and their inability to stop the pass last game keeps me away from this game.
Arizona 33 Carolina 13
N.Y. Giants -4 vs. Philadelphia- No Opinion
This game is too tough to call. My Super System has the line as the Giants –4. Philly’s defense is superior to the Giants allowing 3.5 YPR and 6.1 YPPA, while NY allows 4 YPR and 6.8 YPPA. On the other side of the ball, the Giants are better. NY was first in the league averaging 5 YPR, and they also averaged 6.8 YPPA. Philly averages only 4 YPR and 6.7 YPPA. The Eagles will be bringing the heat and average 3 sacks/game. The Giants have played well at home this year going 7-1. I think that the Giants are slightly the better team, but the Eagles are hot and I can see them pulling the upset here, so I’m staying away.
Pitt -6 Vs. San Diego- No Opinion
Pitt’s D is top in the league against the pass and the run. Offensively, they are poor running the ball (3.7 YPR) and their pass offense is average (7.1 YPPA). The Chargers defense is average (4 YPR, 6.8 YPPA) but have been playing better lately. Rivers had a great year, but the Chargers run game averages only 4 YPR and without LT (listed as doubtful) I think they may struggle. Sproles had a good game last week, but he wasn’t facing this Steelers D. Rivers only threw for 164 yards with 2 picks when they played week 11. Although they only won 11-10, they dominated the game outgaining the Chargers by 200 yards and controlling the clock (36 vs. 24 minutes). I think Pitt will win, but I think Diego may keep it close so I am staying away.
Conference Championship
Week: 0-1
2008 Record: 38-24-3 (61%)
2008: +16.1 Units
1*: .66-.75 Unit
2*: 1 Unit
3*: 1.3-1.5 Units
4*: 1.5-1.66 Units
5*: 2+ Units
Line listed is the consensus line when game is posted, and these will be what I use for my record. View individual write ups for specific star changes if the line is different.
Conference Championship Review
Had a tough loss on Philly this week, but I am 38-24-3 (61%) for the year. If you are wagering 6% per unit you are have nearly doubled your original bankroll!!! Only one game left and I look to finish the year with a winner in Super Bowl XLIII !
2* Philadelphia -3 over Arizona
The key to this game is getting to Warner. If you let him stand in the pocket he will kill you, but if you get sacks and knock-downs he will make mistakes. Warner is a statue in the pocket and Philly's defensive coordinator (Jim Johnson) is the best at blitz schemes and getting pressure on QB's. Philly averages 3 sacks/game (3rd during the regular season) and should be able to continue this trend. I don't put too much stock into the score (48-20) during their week 13 battle because Philly was in a great spot that game (Philly dominated the game and had the ball for 40 minutes compared to Zona's 20). But, what I do look at is that Warner threw 3 picks because of the pressure Philly got on him, although they did not get any sacks. Arizona averaged only 3.5 YPR (31st in the NFL) during the regular season. The media is praising their new "great running game", but they are actually averaging only 3.2 YPR in the postseason! They have ran the ball 71 times the last two games (versus 21 rushes/game during the regular season) so they are making opposing teams respect their running game more. Philly's D has been able to shut down the run all year so I don't foresee this to be a problem. The Eagles only allow 3.5 YPR and 6.1 YPPA. I don't see the Cards moving the ball as easily as they have the last couple weeks. Arizona's run D is average allowing 4 YPR during the regular season and 3.5 YPR in the postseason. The game is in McNabb's hands because Zona's pass D is bad allowing 7.2 YPPA (22nd during regular season) and 221 YPG. Arizona has been fortunate this postseason due to a +7 turnover ratio. They did outplay Atlanta (1 yard/play more) but they were also +2 in turnovers. Last week versus Carolina, the Panthers actually averaged 5.3 yards/play versus the Cardinals' 4.7, so don't let the score fool you. At first I thought this line was skewed because Vegas knows the public would be on Philly, but my math system has the Eagles -4.9. The only way I see Zona winning this game is if the effectively pick up the blitz and the corners get beat in one on one coverage. I like Philly as a 2*.
Arizona 32 Philly 25
For the second straight week I had the team that played statistically better but lost the game. Zona dominated the first half, but Philly dominated the second. Overall the Eagles had 6.8 YPP vs. the Cardinals 6.3. McNabb missed some key passes that would have lead to touchdowns but threw for 360 yards with one pick. With the Eagles down 7 they could not convert a 4th and 10 and that was the ball game. Another tough loss!
Pittsburgh -6 verus Baltimore- No Play
I think that Pitt gets the win in this game but I think the line is inflated so I am staying away. Baltimore won their last two games being fortunate on turnovers, and this can't continue forever. It's hard for me to see a rookie QB (who hasn't been playing good this postseason) getting a win in Pitt. Both defenses are great. Pitt allows 3.3 YPR and 5.4 YPPA (both first in NFL this postseason). Baltimore only allows 3.6 YPR and 5.9 YPPA. Baltimore's running game is better than Pitt's (4 YPR vs 3.7 YPR). Their passing games are the same averaging 7.1 YPPA. My Super System has the line at Pitt -3.1, so it is inflated. I think this is going to be a tight game.
Pit 23 Balt 14
Super Bowl XLIII
1*: .66-.75 Unit
2*: 1 Unit
3*: 1.3-1.5 Units
4*: 1.5-1.66 Units
5*: 2+ Units
Line listed is the consensus line when game is posted, and these will be what I use for my record. View individual write ups for specific star changes if the line is different.
1* Arizona +7 over Pittsburgh
WINNER
The big game is here and I think the Cards get it done!!! The key to this game is Kurt Warner. If his line could give him time he will dominate the game. The way I saw the O line handle the Panthers and the Eagles the last couple of weeks I think they will be able to protect him. Warner is one of the smartest QB's in the league and he can recognize the blitz. When the Eagle came after him he was able to throw quit slants and keep moving the chain. Though Arizona has not run the ball for many yards (only 3.3 YPR in the postseason) they have sticked with it and this has helped the passing game. It's no secret Warner has been very good this year averaging 7.7 YPPA during the regular season and an astounding 8.4 YPPA this postseason. Pittsburgh defense is strong allowing only 3.3 YPR during the regular season (2.4 this postseason) and 5.4 YPPA. But, I think their secondary can be exposed. Pittsburgh offense is not impressive. Their running game is weak averaging only 3.7 YPR (29th during the regular season) and a 3.1 YPR this postseason. Big Ben also doesn't scare me. He is actually better outside of the pocket. I think Whisenhunt knows Ben in and out since he coached him in the past and will bring various packages to get pressure and not let him out of the pocket. Ben only averaged 7.1 YPPA during the regular season (20th in NFL). Ward is banged up and I think this will hurt the Steelers offense. Arizona's run D is very good allowing 4 YPR in the regular and postseason (11th during the regular season). Against the pass they allow 7.2 YPPA, which is average, but as I said Ben does not concern me. The line is on the money here as my Super System has the Steelers as a 7.7 point favorite. I think that Arizona has a good shot at winning this game outright and also recommend taking the money line at +250 for 0.2 units.
Pitt 27 Arizona 23
It's a shame that Zona outplayed Pittsburgh but didn't win, but they got the cover!!! Zona outgained Pitt 7.1 yards/play to 5 yards/play. The big difference maker was at the end of the half when Pitt was able to get a 100 yard int reception for a TD. Besides that, Warner played great throwing for 375 yards. Big Ben didn't play well, but did it when it counted in the end. What a way to end the year with a big win!!!
Props
Note: I only wager small on props for fun therefore they will not be used in my record
Under 5.5 sacks -130
WINNER
Big ben is hard to get down and Warner will get the ball out quickly if he gets pressured.
Largest lead of game under 14.5 -115
WINNER
I don't think either team gets a huge lead in this game.
Hines Ward under 73.5 recieving yards -150
WINNER
In big games the D will concentrate on the number one reciever (Ward) and be able to hold him down.
S. Breaston over 3 receptions -200
WINNER
Pittsburgh will be concentrating on Fitz and Bolden and Breaston will get more catches.
W. Parker under 80.5 rushing yards -120
WINNER
Arizona's rush D is solid and they will not let Willie get many yards.
E. James under 12.5 rushing attempts -120
WINNER
Unless Arizona is up big they will not attempt to run against Pittsburgh's tough run D.
Arizona over 21.5
WINNER
I think zona will be able to score 24+ on pitt.
Under 1.5 fumbles -115
In a big game I think both teams will hold the ball with their life.
WINNER
National Anthem longer than 2 minutes
I think this young lady will give an inspirational performance after her tragedy and hold the notes.
WINNER
Will there be 3 unanswered scores-No +170
I think the game will be close and back and forth.
