Every week Byeweekpicks has full analysis as you see below. In this summary I only include through week 5.
2007-2008
Overall Record
42-27-2 (61%)
Units
+14.7
Super System
41-22 (65%)
This was a great year for Bye Week Picks. After a very rough start I made a great comeback to have another profitable season. After week 8 Bye Week Picks was 12-17-1 and -3.2 units. Since that point I was 30-10-1 to finish the season at 42-27-2 (61%) and +14.7 units. If you bet 6% of your bank roll each game (like Bye Week Picks) you have gotten a 90% return on your money, nearly doubling your investment in just 21 weeks! My Super System did very well this year going 41-22 (65%). To cap off the season I had a winner on the N.Y. Giants plus the points and on the money line. I hope you enjoyed my analysis and picks and I will work hard on the off season to come back with a bigger 2008 season!
Week 2
1*: 1/3 to 1/4 Unit
2*: 1 Unit
3*: 1.3-1.5 Units
4*: 1.5-1.66 Units
5*: 2+ Units
Lines posted are from when I wagered on games, and these will be what I use for record. View individual write ups for specific star changes if the line is different.
Week 2 Record: 1-1
4* New Orleans -3.5 over Tampa Bay
Tampa looked pitiful last week at Seattle. They managed only 90 yards on the ground and 194 yards in the air. This week they face a Saints team that is coming off an embarrassing loss and will be ready to play. The Bucs are banged up as their running back Cadillac Williams and QB Garcia are both hurt, but are expected to play. Defensively, Tampa also looked bad last week. They allowed 139 yards on the ground and 204 in the air versus a Seahawks team that is overrated (see 2007 futures). Tampa's 2006 stats were comparable to what they did last week (rushing offense 28th, rushing defense 17th, passing offense 26th, passing defense 19th) so I foresee them being just as bad this year.
New Orleans is coming off a 41-10 shellacking by way of the Colts. With a week and a half to prepare and think about their loss they will be ready for the Bucs. The Saints had a bad game on both sides of the ball. Offensively, they only had 106 yards on the ground and Brees only had 192 yards in the air (compared to last season where he led the league in passing yards). Defensively, they gave up 164 yards on the ground and 288 yards in the air against Manning. In 2006 they were 3rd in the league against the pass. With 21 off 22 starters returning this year the Saints will be atop the NFC and will easily win this contest. There are 3 trends favoring the Saints including one that is 75% (50-17 against the spread). As of Saturday half of the casinos in Vegas and offshore have the line at 3 1/2, if the line is -4 this is still a 4* play.
T.B. 31 New Orleans 14
I should have know this was a loser when the public was all over the Saints (86% of bets were on Saints versus 14% on the Bucs). The Saints were simply gutless! What happened to their offense from 2006? They looked horrible and could not get anything started. Brees only completed 26 of 44 passes and they managed only 99 yards on the ground. Suprisingly, they actually outgained the Bucs by 13 yards and led the time of possession by 7 minutes, but Tampa was more efficent and converted in the red zone. Their defense looked pitiful making Garcia look like Dan Marino. Are the Saints the AINTS again?
1* Arizona +3 over Seattle
WINNER
Seattle handled the sub-par Bucs easily last week, but will have a more difficult time this week against an improved Arizona team. Seattle did above average offensively gaining 139 yards on the ground and 204 in the air. They were average defensively allowing 90 yards rushing and 194 yards passing. But, they allowed 20-31 completions. I take these statistics with a grain of salt because of how poor Tampa Bay is. This week they will be facing the Cards on the road where they are 6-11-1 against the spread in their last 17.
Arizona is coming off a close loss to San Francisco and will be ready to face another division foe this week. Arizona's rushing game was solid against the Niners last week where they rushed for 161 yards (much improved from last year where they were 30th in rushing). Leinart did not look good last weak throwing for only 102 yards with 2 interceptions but they faced a tough San Francisco secondary. He will bounce back big this week against the sub-par Seahawks D. Defensively, the Cards looked very strong, allowing only 92 yards on the ground and 102 yards in the air. As mentioned above the Hawks are overrated and before the odds makers figure this out, let's make some money!
Arizona 23 Seattle 20
The Cards almost managed to blow a 17-0 lead but they got a break at the end for the win and cover. With under 2 minutes left the Cards recovered a Hasselbeck fumble and Rackers won the game on a last second kick. Leinhart had a good game throwing for 299 yards on 23 of 37 passing with 1 pick and 1 TD. E. James looked like his old self rushing for128 yards on 24 carries. As predicted in my future plays S. Alexander is playing soft this year and only ran for 70 yards. Overall, the Cards played a better game than the Hawks and held the ball 5 minutes longer. Zona...with byeweekpicks first win of the season!!!
Week 3
Week 3 Record: 1-2
2007: 2-3
1*: 1/3 to 1/4 Unit
2*: 1 Unit
3*: 1.3-1.5 Units
4*: 1.5-1.66 Units
5*: 2+ Units
Lines posted are from when I wagered on games, and these will be what I use for record. View individual write ups for specific star changes if the line is different.
3* Denver -3 (-115) over Jacksonville
The Jags look to be overrated this year and are traveling to Denver to face a 2-0 Bronco team. Jacksonville's offense is below average this year gaining only 94 YPG on the ground (21st in NFL) and 224 in the air (14th). They are dead last in the league allowing 182 YPG on the ground and are facing a Bronco offense that has averaged 176 YPG rushing (4th in NFL). This will allow Denver to control the clock. At first glance the Jags pass D looks strong allowing only 117 YPG, but this number is skewed because teams have been running wild on them. Taking a closer look, they allow 10.1 yards/pass (13th in NFL). The Jags are also banged up on defense as DE Reggie Hayward is out and safety Gerald Sensabaugh left Sunday's game and is also expected to be out. The Jags have struggled on the road where they were 2-6 ATS last year.
Denver is 2-0 but won by a field goal against two bad teams (Buffalo and Oakland). But, taking a closer look at these games they actually dominated but could not finish their drives. Against the Bills they gained 470 yards to the Bills 184! In week 2 they out gained the Raiders 441 to 253 and had 26 first downs compared to the Raiders 11. Denver's offense is great this year. They are 4th in the league in rushing (176 YPG) and 5th in passing (280 YPG), and J. Cutler looks as if he is on his way to becoming a top tier QB. Defensively, they are also strong as they have only allowed 63 YPG in the air (best in the NFL)! They have been struggling against the run allowing 156 YPG, but as mentioned above will be facing a Jags rushing offense that is at the bottom of the league. Denver will continue their offensive dominance but this week they will get in the end zone!
Jax 23 Denver 14
The Broncos have been GUTLESS since Elway left Denver, and they continued this trend this week. They were totally dominated on the line as Jax held the ball for 39 minutes! They rushed for over 180 yards and never allowed Denver to get on pace. Total domination! You cannot win being GUTLESS!!!
2* Arizona +8 over Baltimore
WINNER
Baltimore is 1-1 this year and does not deserve to be an 8 point favor this week. The Ravens game is based on defense and field position, and it is hard to cover a line this high when you are playing this way. In week 1 they lost to the lowly Bengals and barely beat the Jets with a backup QB last week. The Raven's offense is sub-par (as always) this year. In the air they are only averaging 193 YPG (23rd). McNair will be starting this week which doesn't affect my opinion on this game. Actually, McNair's career numbers are not that much better than Boller's. The rushing game is supposed to be the Ravens strong point, but they are only averaging 113 YPG (15th in NFL) and 3.8 YPR (20th in NFL). They will be without star offensive lineman Ogden which will make McGahee's job even tougher this week. Against the run the Ravens are still tough allowing only 62 YPG, but their opposing teams rushing games have been weak and will face a Cards team that is 6th in the NFL in rushing (147 YPG). Versus the pass they are average allowing 208 YPG (16th in NFL).
Arizona has been playing good football this year. Leinhart has been struggling, only averaging 200 YPG in the air, but it looks that E. James is back to his old form as the Cards are averaging 147 YPG on the ground. The biggest surprise is their defense this year. They are only allowing 92 YPG on the ground (10th in NFL) and 140 YPG in the air (9th in NFL) and this week will be facing a bad Baltimore offense. Both teams will be relying on their running game and the clock will be ticking, a big advantage for the dog. This line is too high for a ball control team like the Ravens…GO CARDS!
Baltimore 26 Arizona 23
Thank you Kurt Warner! Trailing 23-6 heading to the fourth quater I was a little worried, but the spark of Warner brought the Cards back. Warner was 15 of 20 for 258 yards. Statistically, this game was pretty even as Arizona gained 364 yards versus Baltimore's 381. Like Denver Baltimore controlled the clock holding the ball for nearly 38 minutes, but Zona was able to overcome this and get the cover.
1* Buffalo +17 over New England
This isn't a statistical pick because obviously the Pats are a far better team than the Bills, that's why the line is so high. This is more of a situational game and the NFL is a crazy league where teams don't always play to their potential. Sometimes, you have to have the stones to bet a bad team. New England is the best team in the NFL this year. They have played well on both sides of the ball. On the offensive end they are averaging 139 YPG on the ground and 280 YPG in the air. Defensively they have only allowed 56 YPG rushing and 158 YPG passing. But, they are coming off a tough game versus San Diego and short week (played Sunday night). Coming off this emotional win where many skeptics were questioning how legit their years of winning have been because of the video taping incident they will be flat. In fact it was such a big win for them that T. Bruschi, who has been a part of 9 AFC championships and Super Bowls, said it was his most satisfying victory.
The Bills are not a good football team (as predicted in my futures section), but playing in their first divisional game they should keep it close enough for the cover. Buffalo's rushing game is average gaining 107 YPG on the ground (17th in NFL), but M. Lynch looks promising and the Bills have faced two tough defenses. Losman has looked bad this year averaging only 97 YPG, but Buffalo is going to rely on their running game this week. Defensively they are below average where they have allowed 178 YPG on the ground and 268 YPG in the air, but as I mentioned this is not a statistical game and the Bills will play better this week. The Bills will be circling the wagon again…well maybe not, but they should get the cover.
New England 38 Buffalo 7
I was feeling pretty good about this game when Buffalo was leading 7-3, but they were totally dominated. They were outgained 485 yards to 193. Losman got hurt which didn't help the cause. His replacement, rookie T. Edwards. threw for 97 yards. Call me crazy, but I don't think that's enough to compete with the Pats.
Week 4
Week 4 Record: 1-2
2007: 3-5
1*: 1/3 to 1/4 Unit
2*: 1 Unit
3*: 1.3-1.5 Units
4*: 1.5-1.66 Units
5*: 2+ Units
Lines posted are from when I wagered on games, and these will be what I use for record. View individual write ups for specific star changes if the line is different.
3* Arizona +6.5 over Pittsburgh
WINNER
I've have been riding Zona the last two weeks and won both. They are an underrated team, and Pitt has not played any competition yet to show me they are for real. The Steelers have the worst strength of schedule in the league as they have faced the Browns, Bills, and Niners. They have a strong running game averaging 5.5 YPR, but I still don't think Roethlisberger is a top level QB. The Steelers D is merely average and this against weak offenses. Their rushing D is 20th in the NFL (4.4 YPR) and their pass D allows 10 YPP (11th in NFL).
Arizona offense is pretty strong this year as they average 4.5 YPR (8th in NFL) and 11.5 YPP (11th in NFL). Leinhart had a tough time last week, but I think he is slowly improving and Zona is going to rely heavily on their rushing game this week. Arizona's D is also strong as they allow only 9.7 YPP and 4.1 against the run. Boldin is out the Zona, but Ward is out for Pitt so these should cancel out. There are 4 trends in my database favoring Arizona. I like the big home dog as the Steelers are forced to travel cross country.
Arizona 21 Pitt 14
Maybe I'll just bet the Cards each week because these are the only games I can win. As I thought Pitt is overrated, especially Big Ben. He threw for 2 int's and this was a big part in Arizona's win. Arizona's passing game was strong with both Warner and Leinhart and James was pretty strong also. The Steelers rush game was weak as Parker was held to only 37 yards. Go Cards!
2* St. Louis +13.5 over Dallas
If S. Jackson was playing this week this would be a 3* or 4*, but he is expected to be out on Sunday. Though the Boys are obviously the better team, this line is too high especially as Dallas is coming off a big Sunday night victory in Chicago. They are in a big letdown situation especially as they face a seemingly inferior team which they will probably take lightly. The NFL is a funny thing; it is a league of streaks and all streaks come to an end. The better team does not always win. Dallas is coming off three consecutive wins straight up and ATS and the Rams are coming off three losses both against the spread and straight up. The Cowboys definitely have one of the best offenses in the league averaging 4.8 YPR on the ground (5th in the NFL) and Romo is doing well as he is third in the league in passer rating and 6th in yards. But, defensively they are below average as they allow 3.9 YPR (17th) and 250 YPG in the air (23rd). The most important stat is that Dallas is an astounding +7 in turnover margin (1st in NFL) and this is unlikely to continue. In fact, in the NFL turnovers are 75% independent of the teams playing, so it's basically luck. These turnovers have been a big factor in their victories thus far. The Cowboys also have not faced any competition this year as they have the 4th easiest schedule in the NFL.
The Rams have been very disappointing so far. Their very strong offense has been struggling so far. St. Louis is only averaging 3.5 YPG (25th in NFL) and 9.6 yards/pass (23rd in NFL). But, against the Cowboy's weak defense and Bulger on turf I see this turning around this week, at leas enough for the cover. Jackson being out is definitely a set back but he has been playing so poorly this year that the backup might actually give them a boost. St. Louis' rush defense is weak allowing 4.7 YPR but their pass defense is ranked 3rd in the NFL only allowing 146 YPG. This will force the Cowboys to run and eat up the clock. There are over 15 trends from byeweekpicks database many of which are greater that 75%, including a 40-9 (82%, since 1986) trend favoring the Rams because of the Cowboys lucky turnover margin.
Dallas 35 St. Louis 7
Blowout city...but the wrong way. I though the Cowboys would come out flat, and they did but it only lasted a quarter. They dominated every aspect of the game outgaining the Rams 502 to 187. Romo had a great game throwing for 339 yards with 3 TD's. Bulger on the other hand sucked it up again throwing for only 114 yards.
1* Minnesota +2 over Green Bay
Green Bay has been a surprising 3-0 team so far. But, the reason the Pack are favored in this game is public perception. The betting public love to bet Favre and the Packers. Minnesota is actually a better team, and with Green Bay coming off an underdog victory against the Chargers and winning 3 in a row straight up and against the spread they are in a tough schedule position. As opposed to the Vikings who are in a great schedule position. They are coming off two road games and are traveling for their next two games, so this is a must win divisional game. The Packers rushing game is horrible only averaging 2.9 YPR (30th in NFL). Their passing game is not much better. Though Favre is averaging 273 YPG this is skewed because he has so many attempts; he only averages 10.2 YPP (22nd). The Packers D is only average as well. They allow 3.7 YPR (10th in NFL) and 11.3 YPP (19th in NFL). Part of the reason the Bay is 3-0 is their schedule; they have the 6th easiest schedule in the league.
Minnesota is 1-2, but they are a very solid team. Holcomb will be starting at QB which is actually an upgrade from T. Jackson (who has 1 TD and 5 interceptions this year and a completion percentage of 56.2 for his career). Holcomb is a 10 year veteran who has 37 TD's to his 37 picks with a passer rating of 80. The Viking's running game is very strong (4.3 YPR, 11th) with A.P. and they get C. Taylor back this week. Minnesota's defense is one of the top in the league. They are 1st in the NFL against the run allowing only 2.5 YPR and 7th against the pass (9.5 YPP). The Vikes will be able to move the ball against the Pack's mediocre D and Green Bay will have a tough time against the Vikings top D.
G. B. 23 Minn 16
This was a pretty evenly matched game, but the Vikes couldn't get in the end zone. Each team gained about 380 yards, had 2 turnovers, and held the ball for 30 minutes. The biggest difference was the Vikings inability to convert on third down as they were only 5 of 15...not going to win like that.
Week 5
Week 5 Record: 4-1
2007: 7-6
Units: +1.89
1*: 1/3 to 1/4 Unit
2*: 1 Unit
3*: 1.3-1.5 Units
4*: 1.5-1.66 Units
5*: 2+ Units
Lines posted are from when I wagered on games, and these will be what I use for record. View individual write ups for specific star changes if the line is different.
4* Washington -3.5 over Detroit
WINNER
The Skins are a much improved team this year and are pretty good on both sides of the ball. Don't let Detroit's 3-1 record fool you, they are a below average team. Their only strong point is the passing game which is ranked 3rd in the league in YPPA (yards per pass attempt) at 8.5. But, this week their only strength will be shut down by a Skins defense that is 2nd in the NFL allowing only 5.8 YPPA. On the ground the Lions are poor averaging only 3.8 YPR (yards per rush) (21st) and 75 YPG (yards per game) rushing (31st). Defensively they are very bad as they allow 30.2 PPG (points per game) versus opponents that have averaged only 19.6 PPG! Against the run they allow 4 YPR (19th) and 7.6 YPPA (23rd). On the injury front, C. Johnson has been upgraded to probable and T.J. Duckett is day to day. If either player is out this will be a blow to Detroit's offense, but I expect them to play. Also, Detroit is coming off a big win versus their divisional rival the Chicago Bears.
Washington is a solid team this year. They are coming off a bye and a loss to division foe the N.Y. Giants, so they will be ready to play this week. Offensively, they average 4 YPR (18th in NFL), but I expect Betts to get more carries this week as Portis is banged up and actually he is a better back, but they have to feed Portis when he is healthy because of his huge contract. In the air J. Campbell is 3rd in yards/pass completion (13.5) and 13th in YPPA (7.4). He has not been accurate this year, but against the Lions weak defense I look for this to improve. The Skins D has been very good allowing 17.7 PPG versus teams that have averaged 24.3 PPG thus far. Washington's rush D is decent allowing 4 YPR (14th), but as mentioned above their pass D is tops in the league and putting the ball in the air is the Lions strength. The Super System has the line at Washington -5.5 so it is not significant. There are 3 trends favoring the Lions, but 14 situational trends (all of which are 65% or greater) favoring the Skins including a 34-9 (79%) trend (since 1986).
Washington 34 Detroit 3
Blowout city!!! I was going to make this my NFC Game Of The Year, but it's too early and I'll probably have games just as strong. Washington totally dominated this game. As predicted, Detroit's only source of offense is their passing game and Washington totally shut it down. Kitna only threw for 106 yards and had zerot touchdowns. The Skins played a heck of a game as they rushed for 118 yards and Campbell had a very good game completing 23 of 26 passes for 248 yards. Great 4* win!!!
2* New Orleans -3 (-120) over Carolina
New Orleans is obviously not the same team they were last year, but coming off a bye and playing at home they are in a must win situation versus a banged up Carolina team. The Panthers are a below average football team. Offensively, their run game is not bad averaging 4.6 YPR (9th in NFL), but their passing game has struggled no matter who is at the helm, and this week it's David Carr. The Panthers only average 6.39 YPPA; good enough to be ranked 23rd in the NFL. Through the years, Carolina has relied on its defense, but they are not getting it done in 2007. They are allowing 21.7 PPG to teams that have averaged only 16.9 PPG. They are average against the run and pass allowing 6.7 YPPA and 4 YPR (17th in NFL). Carolina is also in a tough schedule position as they are playing there second road game in a stint where they play 3 out of 4 on the road.
The Saints have been one of the most disappointing teams this year. It just doesn't make sense that you can return 21 of 22 starters and be this poor. Their defense was never strong last year, so I understand why they are struggling, but their offense was tops in the league. I don't think their offense can be as dominant as they were last year without Deuce pounding the ball, but I think they will look improved this week. Their running game has been horrible averaging 3.5 YPR (25th in NFL), but more surprising is Brees' inability to pass. The Saint are only averaging 5.2 YPPA (31st in NFL). He has a dismal passer rating of 57.1 and has thrown 7 int's! Brees can only get better, and I think he will with an extra week of preparation. The Saint's pass defense has also been struggling as they are allowing 10 YPPA in the air, but their rush D is strong as they are ranked 8th allowing only 3.7 YPR. I'm not concerned about their poor pass defense because they will be facing David Carr this week. Another big reason that New Orleans is 0-3 is because they are -8 in turnover ratio (last in league) and this is unlikely to continue as turnovers are mainly independent from week to week. Also, the Saints strength of schedule is 1st in the league as opposed to the Panthers which is ranked 24th. There are situational trends favoring both teams that cancel each other out. The Bye Week Picks Super System has this game at a pick 'em (only significant if greater that 4.3 points from spread). A must win game for the Saints!
Note: If line is 3.5 buy the 1/2 point. Line is -3 at Stations Casino on Friday. Still a 2* at 3.5.
Carolina 16 N.O.13
I Know New Orleans is not a good team, but I thought they had the heart to pull out a victory at home...I guess not. Brees' 2 int's hurt the Saints big time. Even though the Saint outgained the Panthers by 100 yards they couldn't stop their drives and couldn't stop Carolina. Gutless!
2* Chicago +3.5 over Green Bay
WINNER
I am not betting the Bears this game; better put, I am betting against the Pack. Let's get one thing straight the Packers may be 4-0 but they are merely average! You cannot win in the NFL without at the very least a decent running game, and Green Bay is dead last in the league averaging only 2.8 YPG and 54 YPG! Even Favre knows how bad their run game is. "Our run game at this point is non-existent, I don't think we can win consistently unless we get more balanced." They're going to have a tough time rushing against the Bears who are ranked 4th in the league versus the rush. Favre is having a good year, but without a running game this will not continue. Though the Pack are 2nd in the league in passing yards per game, this number is skewed because Favre passes so much, and he is ranked 17th averaging only 7.1 YPPA. He threw 47 interceptions over the last two seasons and only has 2 this year; this rate is not likely to continue. Last time I checked he wasn't 27 years old again. In fact, even in his prime he was always a gun slinger averaging about 19 interceptions per year. I love when the commentators talk about how good Green Bay's defense is. It is simply average. Their rush D is actually very poor as they allow 4.5 YPR (24th) and their pass D is a little better giving up 6.7 YPPA (11th). GB's level of competition has not been good either this year; they are ranked 20th in strength of schedule.
The Bears have been a very disappointing team this year. They need to get back to what led them to the NFC championship last year, defense and running the ball. Griese has no business throwing the ball 52 times. Their defense has allowed 23.7 PPG, but they have played good competition that has averaged 24.3 PPG. The Bears are banged up on D but I expect them to come out fired up as they face their long time rival on national T.V. Against the run, the Bears are one of the best in the league allowing only 3.4 YPR (4th), so the game will be on Favre's shoulders and as I said above he cannot continue this play forever without a running attack. Against the pass they are allowing a poor 8.2 YPPA. They look bad offensively, as they only average 3.3 YPR (28th). Benson had a good season last year averaging 4.1 YPR, so I expect him to improve this year. Griese is actually a solid QB. His career numbers are: 7 YPPA, 106 TD's to 83 INT's, and a passer rating of 84.2 (for comparison, Favre's career QB raing is 85.3). He is definitely a step up compared to Grossman whose career numbers are: 6.5 YPPA, 28 TD's to 32 INT's, and a 69.3 passer rating. I see head coach Lovie Smith calling a more conservative game this week and not letting Griese throw so much. Another reason the Bears are 1-3 is because they are -7 in turnover ratio (second worst only to the Saints). I see the Bears in a tight game versus their rivals. Still a 2* at a line of 3.
Chicago 27 G.B. 20
The story of this game was turnovers. Green Bay had 5 turnovers, including 2 picks from Favre. The Bears were able to drive the ball down the field with ease in the second half against the Pack's overrated D. Griese had a pretty good game throwing for 214 yards with 2 TD's. This was typical NFL, the public was riding the Pack and it was obvious they are overrated. Da Bears!
2* Buffalo +11 over Dallas
WINNER
Dallas is obviously the superior team in this match up, but there are great situational trends favoring Buffalo a double digit home dog on Monday night is a strong play. The Cowboys are a very good team this year on both sides of the ball, but they haven't faced any competition yet; their strength of schedule is 31st in the league. Also, they are leading the league in turnover ratio at +7; this is not likely to continue. The Boys average a strong 4.9 YPR (4th) and 9.91 YPPA (11th). Defensively they are also above average allowing 3.7 YPR (10th) and 6.4 YPPA (9th). But, Dallas faces New England next week and coming in as a 10 point favorite they are likely to look ahead to the Pats.
Buffalo came up with a win last week against the Jets. T. Edwards has played pretty solid for a rookie (67% completion rate, QB rating of 76). The Bills running game is average at 4 YPR (19th) and their passing game is only averaging 6.2 YPPA, but if Edwards continues to improve this can get better. Defensively, they are weak allowing 4.9 YPR and 8.1 YPPA. I don't think that they are going to stop Dallas' offense, but I think that they'll contain them for the cover. The Bills strength of schedule is 10th in the league and they have a bye next week; usually in the NFL teams play better heading into a bye. There are 14 situational trends favoring the Bills. Most trends favor the Bills because they have been playing so poor lately and are due to bounce back. One trend is 51-18 over the last 12 seasons playing against Dallas because they had such a dominant performance last week.
Dallas 25 Buffalo 24
In the NFL you have to have the guts to bet bad teams; just like Buffalo. This was a typical trend game where the Dog has to score off of turnovers and special teams to win the game, and that's just what Buff did. They scored off of 2 interception returns and a kick off. They got the cover easily, but they have to be one of the few teams to be +5 in turnover ratio and lose the game outright. As I mentioned above Dallas was coming into this game +7 in turnover ratio and this could not continue forever. Romo threw 5 picks! The cover was never in question throughout this game...these are the games I like to play.
1* St. Louis +3.5 over Arizona
WINNER
I have bet Arizona 3 times this year and St. Louis is one of the worst teams in the NFL. So, why am I betting the Rams? As I said before, the NFL is weird; the better team does not always win. Also, once the public starts betting heavy on a team (like Arizona) the odds makers will adjust the line. There are 17 situational trends that favor the Rams (9 of which are greater than 70 %). Most of these trends play on the fact that St. Louis has been playing so poorly the last few games and are now facing a team with an average defense. One trend is an amazing 142-43 (76.7%) over the last 20 years. The Cardinals rushing game is average gaining 4.3 YPR (13th in NFL), but their passing game is not strong. Whisenhunt has decided to go with a two quarterback system which rarely works in the NFL. It puts pressure on Leinhart to perform and the offensive line (especially because Warner is right handed and Leinhart is left handed) and receivers can never get in a groove. Though they have won a couple games, the tandem only passes for 6.7 YPPA (21st in NFL). The injuries of A. Boldin (doubtful) and right tackle L. Brown (questionable) will hurt Zona's run and pass attack. Defensively, they're solid allowing 3.8 YPR (11th) and 6.9 YPPA (13th).
The Rams have been a disappointment this year, especially their offense. This week they will start 15 year veteran Gus Frerotte. Frerotte will be an improvement to a banged up Bulger, as he has averaged 5.9 YPPA in his career and Bulger has only averaged 4.8 this year. Year in and year out you see the backup coming in and giving the offense the spark they need. The Rams also get back a couple injured players; guard R. Incognito and CB F. Brown are set to return this week. Brown will replace L. Walls who was smoked repeatedly last week. The Rams only manage 3.4 YPR and 5.7 YPPA. Defensively, they are not much better allowing 4.8 YPR (26th) and 8.3 YPPA (26th). But, I am not betting the Rams because of stats. Also, Arizona is coming off a win as a 6 point dog versus Pittsburgh and this is a favorable schedule situation for the Rams as they are coming off a 2 game road trip and begin a 2 game road trip next week. Unfortunately, my Super System favors the Cards by 8.5 points, limiting the Rams a 1* play. Still a 1* at a line of 3.
Arizona 34 St. Louis 31
What a great win! With 20 seconds left St. Louis scored a TD and then converted the 2 point conversion. You don't get too many like this. The game was actually evenly matched. The difference was Frerotte's 3 picks. I'll take this big win any day of the week!
