Week 1
No Plays
Week 2
1*: 1/3 to 1/4 Unit
2*: 1 Unit
3*: 1.3-1.5 Units
4*: 1.5-1.66 Units
5*: 2+ Units
Lines posted are from when I wagered on games, and these will be what I use for record. View individual write ups for specific star changes if the line is different.
Week 2 Record: 1-1
4* New Orleans -3.5 over Tampa Bay
Tampa looked pitiful last week at Seattle. They managed only 90 yards on the ground and 194 yards in the air. This week they face a Saints team that is coming off an embarrassing loss and will be ready to play. The Bucs are banged up as their running back Cadillac Williams and QB Garcia are both hurt, but are expected to play. Defensively, Tampa also looked bad last week. They allowed 139 yards on the ground and 204 in the air versus a Seahawks team that is overrated (see 2007 futures). Tampa's 2006 stats were comparable to what they did last week (rushing offense 28th, rushing defense 17th, passing offense 26th, passing defense 19th) so I foresee them being just as bad this year.
New Orleans is coming off a 41-10 shellacking by way of the Colts. With a week and a half to prepare and think about their loss they will be ready for the Bucs. The Saints had a bad game on both sides of the ball. Offensively, they only had 106 yards on the ground and Brees only had 192 yards in the air (compared to last season where he led the league in passing yards). Defensively, they gave up 164 yards on the ground and 288 yards in the air against Manning. In 2006 they were 3rd in the league against the pass. With 21 off 22 starters returning this year the Saints will be atop the NFC and will easily win this contest. There are 3 trends favoring the Saints including one that is 75% (50-17 against the spread). As of Saturday half of the casinos in Vegas and offshore have the line at 3 1/2, if the line is -4 this is still a 4* play.
T.B. 31 New Orleans 14
I should have know this was a loser when the public was all over the Saints (86% of bets were on Saints versus 14% on the Bucs). The Saints were simply gutless! What happened to their offense from 2006? They looked horrible and could not get anything started. Brees only completed 26 of 44 passes and they managed only 99 yards on the ground. Suprisingly, they actually outgained the Bucs by 13 yards and led the time of possession by 7 minutes, but Tampa was more efficent and converted in the red zone. Their defense looked pitiful making Garcia look like Dan Marino. Are the Saints the AINTS again?
1* Arizona +3 over Seattle
WINNER
Seattle handled the sub-par Bucs easily last week, but will have a more difficult time this week against an improved Arizona team. Seattle did above average offensively gaining 139 yards on the ground and 204 in the air. They were average defensively allowing 90 yards rushing and 194 yards passing. But, they allowed 20-31 completions. I take these statistics with a grain of salt because of how poor Tampa Bay is. This week they will be facing the Cards on the road where they are 6-11-1 against the spread in their last 17.
Arizona is coming off a close loss to San Francisco and will be ready to face another division foe this week. Arizona's rushing game was solid against the Niners last week where they rushed for 161 yards (much improved from last year where they were 30th in rushing). Leinart did not look good last weak throwing for only 102 yards with 2 interceptions but they faced a tough San Francisco secondary. He will bounce back big this week against the sub-par Seahawks D. Defensively, the Cards looked very strong, allowing only 92 yards on the ground and 102 yards in the air. As mentioned above the Hawks are overrated and before the odds makers figure this out, let's make some money!
Arizona 23 Seattle 20
The Cards almost managed to blow a 17-0 lead but they got a break at the end for the win and cover. With under 2 minutes left the Cards recovered a Hasselbeck fumble and Rackers won the game on a last second kick. Leinhart had a good game throwing for 299 yards on 23 of 37 passing with 1 pick and 1 TD. E. James looked like his old self rushing for128 yards on 24 carries. As predicted in my future plays S. Alexander is playing soft this year and only ran for 70 yards. Overall, the Cards played a better game than the Hawks and held the ball 5 minutes longer. Zona...with byeweekpicks first win of the season!!!
Week 3
Week 3 Record: 1-2
2007: 2-3
1*: 1/3 to 1/4 Unit
2*: 1 Unit
3*: 1.3-1.5 Units
4*: 1.5-1.66 Units
5*: 2+ Units
Lines posted are from when I wagered on games, and these will be what I use for record. View individual write ups for specific star changes if the line is different.
3* Denver -3 (-115) over Jacksonville
The Jags look to be overrated this year and are traveling to Denver to face a 2-0 Bronco team. Jacksonville's offense is below average this year gaining only 94 YPG on the ground (21st in NFL) and 224 in the air (14th). They are dead last in the league allowing 182 YPG on the ground and are facing a Bronco offense that has averaged 176 YPG rushing (4th in NFL). This will allow Denver to control the clock. At first glance the Jags pass D looks strong allowing only 117 YPG, but this number is skewed because teams have been running wild on them. Taking a closer look, they allow 10.1 yards/pass (13th in NFL). The Jags are also banged up on defense as DE Reggie Hayward is out and safety Gerald Sensabaugh left Sunday's game and is also expected to be out. The Jags have struggled on the road where they were 2-6 ATS last year.
Denver is 2-0 but won by a field goal against two bad teams (Buffalo and Oakland). But, taking a closer look at these games they actually dominated but could not finish their drives. Against the Bills they gained 470 yards to the Bills 184! In week 2 they out gained the Raiders 441 to 253 and had 26 first downs compared to the Raiders 11. Denver's offense is great this year. They are 4th in the league in rushing (176 YPG) and 5th in passing (280 YPG), and J. Cutler looks as if he is on his way to becoming a top tier QB. Defensively, they are also strong as they have only allowed 63 YPG in the air (best in the NFL)! They have been struggling against the run allowing 156 YPG, but as mentioned above will be facing a Jags rushing offense that is at the bottom of the league. Denver will continue their offensive dominance but this week they will get in the end zone!
Jax 23 Denver 14
The Broncos have been GUTLESS since Elway left Denver, and they continued this trend this week. They were totally dominated on the line as Jax held the ball for 39 minutes! They rushed for over 180 yards and never allowed Denver to get on pace. Total domination! You cannot win being GUTLESS!!!
2* Arizona +8 over Baltimore
WINNER
Baltimore is 1-1 this year and does not deserve to be an 8 point favor this week. The Ravens game is based on defense and field position, and it is hard to cover a line this high when you are playing this way. In week 1 they lost to the lowly Bengals and barely beat the Jets with a backup QB last week. The Raven's offense is sub-par (as always) this year. In the air they are only averaging 193 YPG (23rd). McNair will be starting this week which doesn't affect my opinion on this game. Actually, McNair's career numbers are not that much better than Boller's. The rushing game is supposed to be the Ravens strong point, but they are only averaging 113 YPG (15th in NFL) and 3.8 YPR (20th in NFL). They will be without star offensive lineman Ogden which will make McGahee's job even tougher this week. Against the run the Ravens are still tough allowing only 62 YPG, but their opposing teams rushing games have been weak and will face a Cards team that is 6th in the NFL in rushing (147 YPG). Versus the pass they are average allowing 208 YPG (16th in NFL).
Arizona has been playing good football this year. Leinhart has been struggling, only averaging 200 YPG in the air, but it looks that E. James is back to his old form as the Cards are averaging 147 YPG on the ground. The biggest surprise is their defense this year. They are only allowing 92 YPG on the ground (10th in NFL) and 140 YPG in the air (9th in NFL) and this week will be facing a bad Baltimore offense. Both teams will be relying on their running game and the clock will be ticking, a big advantage for the dog. This line is too high for a ball control team like the Ravens…GO CARDS!
Baltimore 26 Arizona 23
Thank you Kurt Warner! Trailing 23-6 heading to the fourth quater I was a little worried, but the spark of Warner brought the Cards back. Warner was 15 of 20 for 258 yards. Statistically, this game was pretty even as Arizona gained 364 yards versus Baltimore's 381. Like Denver Baltimore controlled the clock holding the ball for nearly 38 minutes, but Zona was able to overcome this and get the cover.
1* Buffalo +17 over New England
This isn't a statistical pick because obviously the Pats are a far better team than the Bills, that's why the line is so high. This is more of a situational game and the NFL is a crazy league where teams don't always play to their potential. Sometimes, you have to have the stones to bet a bad team. New England is the best team in the NFL this year. They have played well on both sides of the ball. On the offensive end they are averaging 139 YPG on the ground and 280 YPG in the air. Defensively they have only allowed 56 YPG rushing and 158 YPG passing. But, they are coming off a tough game versus San Diego and short week (played Sunday night). Coming off this emotional win where many skeptics were questioning how legit their years of winning have been because of the video taping incident they will be flat. In fact it was such a big win for them that T. Bruschi, who has been a part of 9 AFC championships and Super Bowls, said it was his most satisfying victory.
The Bills are not a good football team (as predicted in my futures section), but playing in their first divisional game they should keep it close enough for the cover. Buffalo's rushing game is average gaining 107 YPG on the ground (17th in NFL), but M. Lynch looks promising and the Bills have faced two tough defenses. Losman has looked bad this year averaging only 97 YPG, but Buffalo is going to rely on their running game this week. Defensively they are below average where they have allowed 178 YPG on the ground and 268 YPG in the air, but as I mentioned this is not a statistical game and the Bills will play better this week. The Bills will be circling the wagon again…well maybe not, but they should get the cover.
New England 38 Buffalo 7
I was feeling pretty good about this game when Buffalo was leading 7-3, but they were totally dominated. They were outgained 485 yards to 193. Losman got hurt which didn't help the cause. His replacement, rookie T. Edwards. threw for 97 yards. Call me crazy, but I don't think that's enough to compete with the Pats.
Week 4
Week 4 Record: 1-2
2007: 3-5
1*: 1/3 to 1/4 Unit
2*: 1 Unit
3*: 1.3-1.5 Units
4*: 1.5-1.66 Units
5*: 2+ Units
Lines posted are from when I wagered on games, and these will be what I use for record. View individual write ups for specific star changes if the line is different.
3* Arizona +6.5 over Pittsburgh
WINNER
I've have been riding Zona the last two weeks and won both. They are an underrated team, and Pitt has not played any competition yet to show me they are for real. The Steelers have the worst strength of schedule in the league as they have faced the Browns, Bills, and Niners. They have a strong running game averaging 5.5 YPR, but I still don't think Roethlisberger is a top level QB. The Steelers D is merely average and this against weak offenses. Their rushing D is 20th in the NFL (4.4 YPR) and their pass D allows 10 YPP (11th in NFL).
Arizona offense is pretty strong this year as they average 4.5 YPR (8th in NFL) and 11.5 YPP (11th in NFL). Leinhart had a tough time last week, but I think he is slowly improving and Zona is going to rely heavily on their rushing game this week. Arizona's D is also strong as they allow only 9.7 YPP and 4.1 against the run. Boldin is out the Zona, but Ward is out for Pitt so these should cancel out. There are 4 trends in my database favoring Arizona. I like the big home dog as the Steelers are forced to travel cross country.
Arizona 21 Pitt 14
Maybe I'll just bet the Cards each week because these are the only games I can win. As I thought Pitt is overrated, especially Big Ben. He threw for 2 int's and this was a big part in Arizona's win. Arizona's passing game was strong with both Warner and Leinhart and James was pretty strong also. The Steelers rush game was weak as Parker was held to only 37 yards. Go Cards!
2* St. Louis +13.5 over Dallas
If S. Jackson was playing this week this would be a 3* or 4*, but he is expected to be out on Sunday. Though the Boys are obviously the better team, this line is too high especially as Dallas is coming off a big Sunday night victory in Chicago. They are in a big letdown situation especially as they face a seemingly inferior team which they will probably take lightly. The NFL is a funny thing; it is a league of streaks and all streaks come to an end. The better team does not always win. Dallas is coming off three consecutive wins straight up and ATS and the Rams are coming off three losses both against the spread and straight up. The Cowboys definitely have one of the best offenses in the league averaging 4.8 YPR on the ground (5th in the NFL) and Romo is doing well as he is third in the league in passer rating and 6th in yards. But, defensively they are below average as they allow 3.9 YPR (17th) and 250 YPG in the air (23rd). The most important stat is that Dallas is an astounding +7 in turnover margin (1st in NFL) and this is unlikely to continue. In fact, in the NFL turnovers are 75% independent of the teams playing, so it's basically luck. These turnovers have been a big factor in their victories thus far. The Cowboys also have not faced any competition this year as they have the 4th easiest schedule in the NFL.
The Rams have been very disappointing so far. Their very strong offense has been struggling so far. St. Louis is only averaging 3.5 YPG (25th in NFL) and 9.6 yards/pass (23rd in NFL). But, against the Cowboy's weak defense and Bulger on turf I see this turning around this week, at leas enough for the cover. Jackson being out is definitely a set back but he has been playing so poorly this year that the backup might actually give them a boost. St. Louis' rush defense is weak allowing 4.7 YPR but their pass defense is ranked 3rd in the NFL only allowing 146 YPG. This will force the Cowboys to run and eat up the clock. There are over 15 trends from byeweekpicks database many of which are greater that 75%, including a 40-9 (82%, since 1986) trend favoring the Rams because of the Cowboys lucky turnover margin.
Dallas 35 St. Louis 7
Blowout city...but the wrong way. I though the Cowboys would come out flat, and they did but it only lasted a quarter. They dominated every aspect of the game outgaining the Rams 502 to 187. Romo had a great game throwing for 339 yards with 3 TD's. Bulger on the other hand sucked it up again throwing for only 114 yards.
1* Minnesota +2 over Green Bay
Green Bay has been a surprising 3-0 team so far. But, the reason the Pack are favored in this game is public perception. The betting public love to bet Favre and the Packers. Minnesota is actually a better team, and with Green Bay coming off an underdog victory against the Chargers and winning 3 in a row straight up and against the spread they are in a tough schedule position. As opposed to the Vikings who are in a great schedule position. They are coming off two road games and are traveling for their next two games, so this is a must win divisional game. The Packers rushing game is horrible only averaging 2.9 YPR (30th in NFL). Their passing game is not much better. Though Favre is averaging 273 YPG this is skewed because he has so many attempts; he only averages 10.2 YPP (22nd). The Packers D is only average as well. They allow 3.7 YPR (10th in NFL) and 11.3 YPP (19th in NFL). Part of the reason the Bay is 3-0 is their schedule; they have the 6th easiest schedule in the league.
Minnesota is 1-2, but they are a very solid team. Holcomb will be starting at QB which is actually an upgrade from T. Jackson (who has 1 TD and 5 interceptions this year and a completion percentage of 56.2 for his career). Holcomb is a 10 year veteran who has 37 TD's to his 37 picks with a passer rating of 80. The Viking's running game is very strong (4.3 YPR, 11th) with A.P. and they get C. Taylor back this week. Minnesota's defense is one of the top in the league. They are 1st in the NFL against the run allowing only 2.5 YPR and 7th against the pass (9.5 YPP). The Vikes will be able to move the ball against the Pack's mediocre D and Green Bay will have a tough time against the Vikings top D.
G. B. 23 Minn 16
This was a pretty evenly matched game, but the Vikes couldn't get in the end zone. Each team gained about 380 yards, had 2 turnovers, and held the ball for 30 minutes. The biggest difference was the Vikings inability to convert on third down as they were only 5 of 15...not going to win like that.
Week 5
Week 5 Record: 4-1
2007: 7-6
Units: +1.89
1*: 1/3 to 1/4 Unit
2*: 1 Unit
3*: 1.3-1.5 Units
4*: 1.5-1.66 Units
5*: 2+ Units
Lines posted are from when I wagered on games, and these will be what I use for record. View individual write ups for specific star changes if the line is different.
4* Washington -3.5 over Detroit
WINNER
The Skins are a much improved team this year and are pretty good on both sides of the ball. Don't let Detroit's 3-1 record fool you, they are a below average team. Their only strong point is the passing game which is ranked 3rd in the league in YPPA (yards per pass attempt) at 8.5. But, this week their only strength will be shut down by a Skins defense that is 2nd in the NFL allowing only 5.8 YPPA. On the ground the Lions are poor averaging only 3.8 YPR (yards per rush) (21st) and 75 YPG (yards per game) rushing (31st). Defensively they are very bad as they allow 30.2 PPG (points per game) versus opponents that have averaged only 19.6 PPG! Against the run they allow 4 YPR (19th) and 7.6 YPPA (23rd). On the injury front, C. Johnson has been upgraded to probable and T.J. Duckett is day to day. If either player is out this will be a blow to Detroit's offense, but I expect them to play. Also, Detroit is coming off a big win versus their divisional rival the Chicago Bears.
Washington is a solid team this year. They are coming off a bye and a loss to division foe the N.Y. Giants, so they will be ready to play this week. Offensively, they average 4 YPR (18th in NFL), but I expect Betts to get more carries this week as Portis is banged up and actually he is a better back, but they have to feed Portis when he is healthy because of his huge contract. In the air J. Campbell is 3rd in yards/pass completion (13.5) and 13th in YPPA (7.4). He has not been accurate this year, but against the Lions weak defense I look for this to improve. The Skins D has been very good allowing 17.7 PPG versus teams that have averaged 24.3 PPG thus far. Washington's rush D is decent allowing 4 YPR (14th), but as mentioned above their pass D is tops in the league and putting the ball in the air is the Lions strength. The Super System has the line at Washington -5.5 so it is not significant. There are 3 trends favoring the Lions, but 14 situational trends (all of which are 65% or greater) favoring the Skins including a 34-9 (79%) trend (since 1986).
Washington 34 Detroit 3
Blowout city!!! I was going to make this my NFC Game Of The Year, but it's too early and I'll probably have games just as strong. Washington totally dominated this game. As predicted, Detroit's only source of offense is their passing game and Washington totally shut it down. Kitna only threw for 106 yards and had zerot touchdowns. The Skins played a heck of a game as they rushed for 118 yards and Campbell had a very good game completing 23 of 26 passes for 248 yards. Great 4* win!!!
2* New Orleans -3 (-120) over Carolina
New Orleans is obviously not the same team they were last year, but coming off a bye and playing at home they are in a must win situation versus a banged up Carolina team. The Panthers are a below average football team. Offensively, their run game is not bad averaging 4.6 YPR (9th in NFL), but their passing game has struggled no matter who is at the helm, and this week it's David Carr. The Panthers only average 6.39 YPPA; good enough to be ranked 23rd in the NFL. Through the years, Carolina has relied on its defense, but they are not getting it done in 2007. They are allowing 21.7 PPG to teams that have averaged only 16.9 PPG. They are average against the run and pass allowing 6.7 YPPA and 4 YPR (17th in NFL). Carolina is also in a tough schedule position as they are playing there second road game in a stint where they play 3 out of 4 on the road.
The Saints have been one of the most disappointing teams this year. It just doesn't make sense that you can return 21 of 22 starters and be this poor. Their defense was never strong last year, so I understand why they are struggling, but their offense was tops in the league. I don't think their offense can be as dominant as they were last year without Deuce pounding the ball, but I think they will look improved this week. Their running game has been horrible averaging 3.5 YPR (25th in NFL), but more surprising is Brees' inability to pass. The Saint are only averaging 5.2 YPPA (31st in NFL). He has a dismal passer rating of 57.1 and has thrown 7 int's! Brees can only get better, and I think he will with an extra week of preparation. The Saint's pass defense has also been struggling as they are allowing 10 YPPA in the air, but their rush D is strong as they are ranked 8th allowing only 3.7 YPR. I'm not concerned about their poor pass defense because they will be facing David Carr this week. Another big reason that New Orleans is 0-3 is because they are -8 in turnover ratio (last in league) and this is unlikely to continue as turnovers are mainly independent from week to week. Also, the Saints strength of schedule is 1st in the league as opposed to the Panthers which is ranked 24th. There are situational trends favoring both teams that cancel each other out. The Bye Week Picks Super System has this game at a pick 'em (only significant if greater that 4.3 points from spread). A must win game for the Saints!
Note: If line is 3.5 buy the 1/2 point. Line is -3 at Stations Casino on Friday. Still a 2* at 3.5.
Carolina 16 N.O.13
I Know New Orleans is not a good team, but I thought they had the heart to pull out a victory at home...I guess not. Brees' 2 int's hurt the Saints big time. Even though the Saint outgained the Panthers by 100 yards they couldn't stop their drives and couldn't stop Carolina. Gutless!
2* Chicago +3.5 over Green Bay
WINNER
I am not betting the Bears this game; better put, I am betting against the Pack. Let's get one thing straight the Packers may be 4-0 but they are merely average! You cannot win in the NFL without at the very least a decent running game, and Green Bay is dead last in the league averaging only 2.8 YPG and 54 YPG! Even Favre knows how bad their run game is. "Our run game at this point is non-existent, I don't think we can win consistently unless we get more balanced." They're going to have a tough time rushing against the Bears who are ranked 4th in the league versus the rush. Favre is having a good year, but without a running game this will not continue. Though the Pack are 2nd in the league in passing yards per game, this number is skewed because Favre passes so much, and he is ranked 17th averaging only 7.1 YPPA. He threw 47 interceptions over the last two seasons and only has 2 this year; this rate is not likely to continue. Last time I checked he wasn't 27 years old again. In fact, even in his prime he was always a gun slinger averaging about 19 interceptions per year. I love when the commentators talk about how good Green Bay's defense is. It is simply average. Their rush D is actually very poor as they allow 4.5 YPR (24th) and their pass D is a little better giving up 6.7 YPPA (11th). GB's level of competition has not been good either this year; they are ranked 20th in strength of schedule.
The Bears have been a very disappointing team this year. They need to get back to what led them to the NFC championship last year, defense and running the ball. Griese has no business throwing the ball 52 times. Their defense has allowed 23.7 PPG, but they have played good competition that has averaged 24.3 PPG. The Bears are banged up on D but I expect them to come out fired up as they face their long time rival on national T.V. Against the run, the Bears are one of the best in the league allowing only 3.4 YPR (4th), so the game will be on Favre's shoulders and as I said above he cannot continue this play forever without a running attack. Against the pass they are allowing a poor 8.2 YPPA. They look bad offensively, as they only average 3.3 YPR (28th). Benson had a good season last year averaging 4.1 YPR, so I expect him to improve this year. Griese is actually a solid QB. His career numbers are: 7 YPPA, 106 TD's to 83 INT's, and a passer rating of 84.2 (for comparison, Favre's career QB raing is 85.3). He is definitely a step up compared to Grossman whose career numbers are: 6.5 YPPA, 28 TD's to 32 INT's, and a 69.3 passer rating. I see head coach Lovie Smith calling a more conservative game this week and not letting Griese throw so much. Another reason the Bears are 1-3 is because they are -7 in turnover ratio (second worst only to the Saints). I see the Bears in a tight game versus their rivals. Still a 2* at a line of 3.
Chicago 27 G.B. 20
The story of this game was turnovers. Green Bay had 5 turnovers, including 2 picks from Favre. The Bears were able to drive the ball down the field with ease in the second half against the Pack's overrated D. Griese had a pretty good game throwing for 214 yards with 2 TD's. This was typical NFL, the public was riding the Pack and it was obvious they are overrated. Da Bears!
2* Buffalo +11 over Dallas
WINNER
Dallas is obviously the superior team in this match up, but there are great situational trends favoring Buffalo a double digit home dog on Monday night is a strong play. The Cowboys are a very good team this year on both sides of the ball, but they haven't faced any competition yet; their strength of schedule is 31st in the league. Also, they are leading the league in turnover ratio at +7; this is not likely to continue. The Boys average a strong 4.9 YPR (4th) and 9.91 YPPA (11th). Defensively they are also above average allowing 3.7 YPR (10th) and 6.4 YPPA (9th). But, Dallas faces New England next week and coming in as a 10 point favorite they are likely to look ahead to the Pats.
Buffalo came up with a win last week against the Jets. T. Edwards has played pretty solid for a rookie (67% completion rate, QB rating of 76). The Bills running game is average at 4 YPR (19th) and their passing game is only averaging 6.2 YPPA, but if Edwards continues to improve this can get better. Defensively, they are weak allowing 4.9 YPR and 8.1 YPPA. I don't think that they are going to stop Dallas' offense, but I think that they'll contain them for the cover. The Bills strength of schedule is 10th in the league and they have a bye next week; usually in the NFL teams play better heading into a bye. There are 14 situational trends favoring the Bills. Most trends favor the Bills because they have been playing so poor lately and are due to bounce back. One trend is 51-18 over the last 12 seasons playing against Dallas because they had such a dominant performance last week.
Dallas 25 Buffalo 24
In the NFL you have to have the guts to bet bad teams; just like Buffalo. This was a typical trend game where the Dog has to score off of turnovers and special teams to win the game, and that's just what Buff did. They scored off of 2 interception returns and a kick off. They got the cover easily, but they have to be one of the few teams to be +5 in turnover ratio and lose the game outright. As I mentioned above Dallas was coming into this game +7 in turnover ratio and this could not continue forever. Romo threw 5 picks! The cover was never in question throughout this game...these are the games I like to play.
1* St. Louis +3.5 over Arizona
WINNER
I have bet Arizona 3 times this year and St. Louis is one of the worst teams in the NFL. So, why am I betting the Rams? As I said before, the NFL is weird; the better team does not always win. Also, once the public starts betting heavy on a team (like Arizona) the odds makers will adjust the line. There are 17 situational trends that favor the Rams (9 of which are greater than 70 %). Most of these trends play on the fact that St. Louis has been playing so poorly the last few games and are now facing a team with an average defense. One trend is an amazing 142-43 (76.7%) over the last 20 years. The Cardinals rushing game is average gaining 4.3 YPR (13th in NFL), but their passing game is not strong. Whisenhunt has decided to go with a two quarterback system which rarely works in the NFL. It puts pressure on Leinhart to perform and the offensive line (especially because Warner is right handed and Leinhart is left handed) and receivers can never get in a groove. Though they have won a couple games, the tandem only passes for 6.7 YPPA (21st in NFL). The injuries of A. Boldin (doubtful) and right tackle L. Brown (questionable) will hurt Zona's run and pass attack. Defensively, they're solid allowing 3.8 YPR (11th) and 6.9 YPPA (13th).
The Rams have been a disappointment this year, especially their offense. This week they will start 15 year veteran Gus Frerotte. Frerotte will be an improvement to a banged up Bulger, as he has averaged 5.9 YPPA in his career and Bulger has only averaged 4.8 this year. Year in and year out you see the backup coming in and giving the offense the spark they need. The Rams also get back a couple injured players; guard R. Incognito and CB F. Brown are set to return this week. Brown will replace L. Walls who was smoked repeatedly last week. The Rams only manage 3.4 YPR and 5.7 YPPA. Defensively, they are not much better allowing 4.8 YPR (26th) and 8.3 YPPA (26th). But, I am not betting the Rams because of stats. Also, Arizona is coming off a win as a 6 point dog versus Pittsburgh and this is a favorable schedule situation for the Rams as they are coming off a 2 game road trip and begin a 2 game road trip next week. Unfortunately, my Super System favors the Cards by 8.5 points, limiting the Rams a 1* play. Still a 1* at a line of 3.
Arizona 34 St. Louis 31
What a great win! With 20 seconds left St. Louis scored a TD and then converted the 2 point conversion. You don't get too many like this. The game was actually evenly matched. The difference was Frerotte's 3 picks. I'll take this big win any day of the week!
Week 6
Week 6 Record: 3-3-1
2007: 10-9-1
Units: +4.01
1*: 1/3 to 1/4 Unit
2*: 1 Unit
3*: 1.3-1.5 Units
4*: 1.5-1.66 Units
5*: 2+ Units
Lines posted are from when I wagered on games, and these will be what I use for record. View individual write ups for specific star changes if the line is different.
5* Philadelphia -3 (-120) over N.Y. Jets
WINNER
I am going to hold off on posting Philly as my game of the year simply because it is too early in the season but they are a rare 5* play. The Eagles are favored in 5 out of 5 aspects of my research (stats, supersystem, situations, trends, and intuition). Statistically, they are a far better team than the Jets. Philly's rushing offense is very strong averaging 4.75 YPR (5th) and will only get better as Westbrook returns this week. They will be facing a bad Jets rush D that is ranked 19th in the league (3.96 YPR). McNabb struggled two weeks ago against the Giants as he was sacked about 50 times, but he'll have time this week as the Jets have only had 3 sacks all year. Also, the Jets have one of the worst pass defenses in the league allowing 8.03 YPPA (30th in NFL). The return of L.J. Smith will only help McNabb. The Eagle defense is also very strong and will face a terrible N.Y. Jets offense. The Jets only average 3 YPR (second to last in NFL) and will face a great Philly rush D that is ranked 3rd in the league allowing only 3.35 YPR. In the air the Jets aren't much better averaging only 6.7 YPPA (21st in NFL) and with a banged up Pennington at the helm this will not improve. The Eagles pass defense is also pretty strong allowing only 6.97 YPPA (12th). The Eagles allow 18 PPG, but this is against teams that have scored 23 PPG. While the Jets allow 28 PPG versus teams that have averaged 22 PPG. So, they Jets cannot stop the Eagles and will not be able to move the ball, how can they win? The Bye Week Picks supersystem has the line at Philadelphia -9. The situational factors are strongly favoring the Eagles; Philly is coming off a divisional loss and a bye where they are 8-0 straight up under Andy Reid. As far as trends, Philly has 2 favoring them and also a trend that is a 39-2 straight up winner the last 13 season where the average score in these games was 30.2 to 14.8. Barring turnovers (which are unpredictable) I see Philly with an easy win and cover! I got Philly -3 on Thursday in Vegas, line is 3.5 as of Friday night and may go to 4 so get it in early.
Philadelphia 16 N.Y. 9
BIG 5* WIN ON THE EAGLES!!! I know you were nervous when the Jets had the ball on the 4 yard line with a 2nd and 1 with 3 minutes left. Not me, well maybe a little, but when I got the call from my man Casey the Clutch that the Eagles stuffed the Jets twice and then batted the ball down on 4th I felt great! This game should have never been this close. The Eagles drove the ball at will but could not convert in the red zone. The Eagles outgained the Jets 413 to 267 yards. McNabb had a very good game throwing for 278 yards and Westbrook was a beast rushing for 120 yards on 20 carries. Akers missed 2 field goals which didn't help the cause. We had to sweat it out, but all that matters is we got the BIG WIN!!!
3* Miami +4.5 over Cleveland
Cleveland's offense is surprisingly good, but hey have one of the worst defenses in the league that will allow Miami to drive the ball easily. Miami has a very strong rushing game averaging 4.74 YPR (7th) and R. Brown is having a great year. This week they will be facing a terrible Browns D that is ranked 29th in the league allowing 4.9 YPR. Miami's passing game is not strong, but C. Lemon will actually be better that Trent Green who was having a bad year. Also, I don't see the Phins throwing much, they will pound the ball and eat up the clock which is always good when you bet a dog. Lemon will have a great D to practice on as the Brown allow 7.2 YPPA. The Browns run game is strong averaging 4.85 YPR but will take a major hit this week as J. Lewis is listed as doubtful and they will be forced to start Wright who has a career average of 3.5 YPR. The Phins have allowed 4.5 YPR this year, but only allowed 74 yards last week as they got back Z. Thomas. Anderson is having a pretty good year and the Browns are averaging 7.6 YPPA and the Phins allow 7.64 YPP. The Dolphins are 0-5 and they will be hungry for a win and this is the perfect opportunity to get their first W. Another big reason Miami is 0-5 is because they are -5 in turnover ratio which is not likely to continue. There are 17 trends that favor the Dolphins many playing on the fact that Miami lost a close game last week and have been playing poor this year. One very strong trend applies to the Phins and is 86-35-3 ATS playing on underdogs (or picks) that have lost 5 or more consecutive games. I also recommend taking Miami's money line at +200 for a small play (0.25 units).
Cleveland 41 Miami 31
Dare I say that the Cleveland Browns are for real? Their offense is definately strong but their defense is very weak. Miami played a pretty good game they just couldn't stop D.A. and the Browns attack. Anderson had 245 yards and 3 TD's with no picks. Cleo Lemon had a pretty good game throwing for 256 yards but he also threw for 2 picks. Ronnie Brown looked like a beast having another 100 yard game. In the end the Phins could not stop the Browns. Do I smell a Super Bowl XLIII victory for Cleveland?
2* Minnesota +5.5 over Chicago
WINNER
Minnesota is a better team than the Bears and have no business being a 5.5 point dog. The line is inflated because of public perception that the Bears are actually good and because they beat the Packers last week (also overrated). The Vikes are coming off a bye and 3 consecutive losses and will be ready to face their division foes. Minnesota has one of the best run offenses in the league with the tandem of A.P. and Taylor averaging 4.86 YPR (2nd in the NFL). The Bears rush defense is pretty good allowing 3.8 YPR but won't be able to contain the Vikes. Minnesota get T. Jackson back, but I don't think they'll be throwing the ball much, but he will be facing the second worst pass D in the league as the Bears allow 8.2 YPP. The Bears have zero offense! Their rush game is one of the worst in the league averaging only 3.1 YPR (30th) and the Vikings rush defense is amazingly only allowing 2.48 YPR (1st in the NFL). Their pass game is just as bad only averaging 6 YPPA (27th in the NFL). The Vikes pass D is pretty good allowing 7 YPPA (14th). There are 4 trends favoring the Vikes because the Bears are a poor team and a big favorite. I also would take the Vikes money line at +200 for .25-.35 units. Go Vikes!
Minnesota 34 Chicago 31
Nothing pleases me more than burning the books by betting an underdog that wins outright, it's so satisfying. A.P. looked unbelievable as he ate up the soft Chicago defense for 224 yards and 3 TD's. As predicted the Bears could not move the ball at all on the top rush defense in the league (86 yards). This forced Griese to pass and he had 2 picks. Minne made it interesting in the end letting Chi Town get back in the game but they got the W in the end giving us the money line win at +200.
2* Washington +3 over Green Bay
PUSH
We have to take advantage of G.B. being overrated and the Skins being underrated while it lasts. Shortly, the public will be jumping on Washington. Washington's offense is pretty good especially when QB Campbell plays like he did last week and doesn't make mistakes. On the ground they average only 3.83 YPR, but will be facing a Packers D that is 19th in the league. In the air the Skins have been very good averaging 7.69 YPPA (9th) and the Pack's pass D is simply average allowing 7 YPPA (14th). The reason I am betting Washington is their dominant defense. They allow only 13 PPG versus teams that have combined to score 22.1 PPG! We know that Green Bay has no running game averaging only 3.35 YPR (2nd to last in NFL), and this week will face a "punch you in the mouth" Washington defense that allows 3.8 YPR (13th). This game is similar to my 4* win on Washington last week because Green Bay has no rushing game so Favre has to pass to win (just like Detroit last week). The only problem for the Packers is that Washington is first in the league allowing only 5.35 YPPA! Favre has thrown for a lot of total yards, but this is mainly because he is second in attempts and only averages 7.27 YPPA (14th). There are not any trends favoring either team. G.B. is coming off a divisional loss and they are going into a bye so I will only make this a 2* play.
G.B. 17 Washington 14
This push hurt because the Skins should have won this game. They outplayed the Packers but G.B. was able to run back a fumble for the win. Washington outgained the Pack by about 100 yards, but the Skins got away from their running game and Campbell passed 37 times (although he had a pretty good game). The redskins had 6 dropped passes in key situations. Green Bay continues to have zero running game rushing for a total of 56 yards and Favre looked like his old self just chucking the ball in the air for 2 interceptions. There's going to be a lot of money to be made betting against the overrated Packers.
2* Dallas +5.5 over New England
These teams are the cream of the crop in the NFL and I couldn't believe my eyes when I was that the Pats were a 5.5 road favorite. I usually stay away from big games like this, but the stats are too much to ignore. I know it's tough to bet against the Patriots but this is a tough spot for them as they apply to multiple negative schedule trends. These teams are almost exactly the same on paper that's why you have to take advantage of Dallas' big home number. Don't let last weeks Monday night performance by Dallas scare you because Buffalo was in a great situation in that game (Bye Week Picks had a 2* winner on Buffalo). Usually teams coming off an emotional win in the NFL are bad plays the next week, but this is when they are underdogs. Dallas had no business winning that game and was -5 in turnover ratio and to overcome all this and win gives a team a huge emotional boost. Dallas' offense is spectacular averaging 4.7 YPR (8th) and T. Romo is 1st in the league averaging 8.8 YPPA. New England's defense is solid as their rushing D is ranked 7th allowing 3.6 YPR and their pass D is ranked 6th (6.3 YPPA). On the flip side, the Pats rushing game averages 4.5 YPR (10th) and Brady is having another great year averaging 8.75 YPPA (2nd). Dallas' D is almost a mirror image being ranked 6th in rushing D and 7th in passing D. New England has been fortunate as they are +7 in turnover ratio versus the Cowboys who are -2. Both teams have played zero competition yet as Dallas' strength of schedule is 31st and the Pats is 27th. There are 6 trends favoring; 3 based on the turnover margin difference and 3 against the Pats for their win streak. Also, I don't usually wager on totals but this one stuck out to me when I was doing my analysis. In the NFL good defenses outplay good offenses most of the time. The under is posted at 52.5 and I feel this is too high and recommend the under.
N.E 48 Dallas 27
New England is simply unbelievable. Brady is a machine throwing for 388 yards and 5 TD's with no interceptions. Dallas moved the ball pretty well, but they could not stop the Pats. Also, the Cowboys had 12 penalties for 98 yards which you cannot do against the Pats.
2* New Orleans +6.5 Over Seattle
WINNER
The Saint are a bad football team but it looks like the line finally caught up to them and they are a good wager this week. As I have said many times this year the NFL is messed up and the better team does not always win and you must have the guts to bet the worse team. There are 19 trends favoring the Saints most of them based on the fact that they have been outscored so badly and are coming off a home divisional loss (therefore should bounce back). As I've said all year Seattle is definitely an overrated football team. Offensively the Hawks running game is 26th in the league averaging 3.4 YPR and S. Alexander is running soft as usual. The Saint's rushing D is their strong point allowing only 3.55 YPR (5th in the NFL). Their passing game isn't much better averaging 7.26 YPPA. The Saints pass D is very poor allowing 9.66 YPPA. I still can't understand what's going on with D. Brees this year as the Saints are dead last in the NFL averaging only 5.25 YPPA. He can only get better and will face an average Hawks D that allows 7.1 YPPA (16th). The Saints rushing offense is not much better averaging only 3.42 YPR but the Hawks rushing D is bad allowing 4.2 YPR (23rd). The Saints are 0-4 straight up and against the spread and these teams are great plays historically in the NFL. The Saints are an unbelievable -9 in turnover ratio which is a huge reason why they are losing and shouldn't continue. Brees had only 11 interceptions last year and he already has 9 through 4 games this year (to only 1 TD). Also, the Saints have played great competition as their strength of schedule is ranked 2nd. I'll take N.O. in 2* play.
New Orleans 28 Seattle 17
The Saints got their first win against the overrated Seahawks. Brees lookes back to form as he threw 2 TD's and no picks and Bush looked tough rushing for 97 yards on 19 carries. S. Alexander continues to look like a bum as predicted rushing for 35 yards and Hasselbeck threw a costly interception at the end of the game. Great win and cover by the Saints.
1* Houston +6.5 over Jacksonville
The Jags are 3-1, but are not a great team especially defensively. Though they haven't given up many points their yardage allowed is high and their points allowed will soon catch up. Jax is coming off 3 consecutive wins and is due for a loss. Offensively the Jags only score 15.7 PPG versus teams that have allowed 19.6 PPG. Their rushing game is ranked 17th in the league averaging 4 YPG and this week they will likely be without F. Taylor who splits carries with Jones-Drew and is leading the team in rushing. They will face a pretty good Houston D that is ranked 13th in the league allowing only 3.8 YPG. The Jags passing game is strong averaging 8.3 YPP and Houston's pass D is average allowing 7 YPP. Garrard is having a good year, but he hasn't thrown a pick in 102 passes and this won't continue. Houston's rushing game is not that strong averaging 3.2 YPR but they will get better this week as the Jags allow 4.1 YPR (22nd in NFL) and with the expected return of A. Green. Shaub is having a heck of a season as he is averaging 8.27 YPG (4th) and will face a poor Jags pass D that is allowing 7.49 YPG (21st in NFL). This line is definitely too high as the Bye Week Supersystem has Jax only -2 and I see Houston keeping this one tight.
Jax 37 Houston 17
Houston was in the game until the fourth quarter when the Jags pulled away. The score is misleading because the game was pretty even the difference was the Jags holding Houston to 60 yards rushing. Garrard continues to play tough and has not thrown an interception yet this season, this will not continue forever.
Week 7
Week 7 Record: 1-3
2007: 11-12-1
Units: +1.16
1*: .66 to .75 Unit
2*: 1 Unit
3*: 1.3-1.5 Units
4*: 1.5-1.66 Units
5*: 2+ Units
Lines posted are from when I wagered on games, and these will be what I use for record. View individual write ups for specific star changes if the line is different.
3* San Francisco +9.5 over N.Y. Giants
Looking at the stats of these teams I was shocked when I saw the line set at 9.5. The 49ers defense is very strong this season; they only allow 3.8 YPR (10th) and 13 YPPA (13th). They will face a Giants offense that is mediocre at best. They average 4.6 YPR (11th) but only 6.76 YPPA (20th). The Niners will be able to hold the Giants and will make it hard for them to cover this high line. Offensively, San Fran has been struggling especially in the air where they only average 5.26 YPPA. On the ground they are average gaining 3.91 YPR (17th). It looks as if T. Dilfer will start this week, but he is not much worse that Smith. The Giants defense is simply average as they allow 3.8 YPR (15th) and 6.92 YPPA (14th). So, the only difference statistically is the passing game (and this difference is very small). The situation factors strongly favor the 49ers. The Niners are coming off a bye and two consecutive home losses, thus will be in a very good bounce back situation! As opposed, the Giants are coming off a short week as they traveled to Atlanta Monday night and they are also coming off 4 consecutive wins straight up and ATS, the perfect let down spot. There are 20 trends favoring the Niners (the second most I have seen in the last 3 years). Every trend is greater than 65% and all are based on at least 90 games. One trend in particular plays on teams that have had trouble scoring as of late and is 69-26 ATS (73%) the last 12 seasons. Another plays on poor underdogs that have lost two consecutive home games (48-15 ATS the last 11 years). I love San Fran in this one, take them as a 3* play.
N.Y. Giants 33 S.F. 15
Turnovers have been killing me this year, and the story was no different in this game. The Niners had 4 turnovers (2 fumbles and 2 int's) including 3 inside their own 20 and one at their own 30. You cannot win in the NFL like that, I don't care who you are playing. Other than the turnovers, each team had the same amount of yards and the time of possession was similar (31 to 29 minutes in favor of the Giants). You cannot predict turnovers (75% luck) and I have been on the wrong side of the coin often this year.
2* Miami +17 (-120) over New England
I know it is tough to bet against the Patriots, but you have to bet against good teams in the NFL to win consistently. Obviously, New England is a better team than the Dolphins but situational factors have led me to a play on the Phins. There are 6 trends favoring the Dolphins this week, including one of my favorites: play on home underdogs if they are 0-3 (or worse) straight up. This trend is 76% (41-16-2) over the last 11 season. This may not make much sense to you, but the NFL is what I like to call a "contrary" league because it is good to go against long streaks (such as the Dolphins losing 6 straight). The Dolphins have played New England tough in the past and Brady is just 7-5 against them (and 76-20 against all other opponents). The Patriots are also coming off a big win at Dallas last week and are in the perfect position for a let down. It's no surprise that New England is a statistically superior team (hence the 16.5 road favorite). In the air they are tops in the league averaging 8.68 YPPA. They are not that great on the ground though as they only average 4.2 YPR (17th), and this will only suffer more with the loss of backup RB S. Morris. This will leave 3rd down running back K. Faulk to carry the load. They will face a Dolphins defense that has been struggling as of late. They allow 4.45 YPR (25th) and 8.01 YPPA. The Phins running game is very strong averaging 4.75 YPR (8th) and will face a Pats rush D that is not too impressive (surprisingly) giving up 4 YPR (17th in NFL). This will allow Miami to rush the ball effectively and control the time of possession and will allow Miami to cover the big spread. In the air Miami is ranked 22nd (6.61 YPPA) but Cleo Lemon showed promise last week and I see this improving. Miami is -5 in turnover ratio compared to New England's +7 mark; this is an advantage to Miami because these streaks will not continue (turnovers are 75% independent). I see Miami keeping this one tight in a big let down situation for the Pats. If line is 16.5 I recommend buying the 1/2 point and bring the line up to 17- this will be the final line used.
N.E. 49 Miami 28
This game was over by half time, but Miami was still able to get the cover in the second half but couldn't pull it out in the end. The score doesn't show it but Miami was only outgained by 60 yards. The big deficit was too much to overcome and Brady was unbelievable as usual.
2* St. Louis +8.5 over Seattle
Seattle continues to be overrated and I am going to take advantage of this and take the Rams as an 8.5 dog. These two teams are very similar statistically. Seattle's running game is poor averaging 3.56 YPR (25th) and their pass game is average as Hasselbeck throws for 7.5 YPPA. St. Louis' defense is allowing 4.2 YPR (20th) and 7.6 YPPA. So, Seattle will move the ball as they have been all year (not well) and this will make it tough to cover the high line. Offensively, the Rams have definitely not been the "greatest show on turf", but Bulger returns this week and with a couple games off to rest his hurt ribs I think this will give the Rams a boost. The Rams average only 3.5 YPR (26th) and 5.8 YPPA. They will be facing a Seattle defense that is below average allowing 4.1 YPR (18th) and 7.1 YPPA (17th). So, the Rams offense will improve this week. The Rams have lost 6 consecutive games, but don't let that scare you away from this game. As I said in my Miami analysis these teams are good plays (76% over last 11 seasons). St. Louis is dead last in turnover ratio at -8, which is a big reason they are 0-6 and I don't see this continue with the return of Bulger. There are 6 trends favoring the Rams. One trend is 48-20 (71%) over the last 10 seasons playing on the Rams because of their poor offensive performance last week (scoring only 3 points).
Seattle 33 St. Louis 6
The Rams were dominated and Bulger stunk it up throwing 3 picks. Neither team had a great offensive performance and turnovers were the difference (as usual in games I bet). Seattle still did not do anything on the offensive side of the ball, but with this win they will continue to be overrated and I will continue to wager against them, it's only a matter of time that their true colors are shown.
1* Atlanta +8.5 over N.O.
WINNER
Are you kidding me, New Orleans -8.5? They are one of the 5 worst teams in the league and have no business being such a big favorite. Atlanta's averages 4 YPR (15th) and 6.44 YPPA (25th). They will actually improve with Leftwich at the helm this week. Defensively, Atlanta is not that strong allowing 4.3 YPR and 7.6 YPPA, but will be facing a terrible N.O. offense. N.O. is 27th in rushing offense and 31st in passing offense. Even if Brees plays like he did last season I don't see them covering this line. Defensively, the Saint can stop the run well allowing 3.7 YPR, but are dead last in the league at pass D allowing 9.3 YPPA. My supersystem has N.O. as 2 point favorites only! There are trends on each team so these cancel out. This line is obviously inflated because the public thinks the Saints are at last years form, but they are not and Atlanta will keep this one close.
N.O. 22 Atlanta 16
This line was obviously too high and the Saints barely got the win. The Falcons dominated the time of possession by 10 minutes. Atlanta had 334 yards compared to the Saints 310. Overall, it was an even game but the Falcons got the cover.
Week 8
Week 8 Record: 1-5
2007: 12-17-1
Units: -3.17
1*: .66 to .75 Unit
2*: 1 Unit
3*: 1.3-1.5 Units
4*: 1.5-1.66 Units
5*: 2+ Units
Lines posted are from when I wagered on games, and these will be what I use for record. View individual write ups for specific star changes if the line is different.
3* Pittsburgh -3.5 over Cincinnati
WINNER
If you have been following me the last few years you can see I rarely wager on road favorites, but I love Pittsburgh in this contest. Pittsburgh dominates this game statistically. The Steelers are ranked 6th in the NFL in rushing averaging 4.75 YPR and will be facing a Bengal's rush D that that is ranked 28th in the NFL allowing 4.67 YPR. Big Ben may not throw for many yards per game, but he throws for 7.85 YPPA good enough for 5th in the league. I don't trust Ben, but he will not have to throw the ball in this game, the Steelers will control the ball on the ground. The Bengal's offense is not the same as it was last year. They do not have a run game as they only average 3.8 YPR (21st in the NFL) and will likely be without R. Johnson this week again (listed as doubtful). The Steelers rush defense is strong allowing only 3.71 YPR (9th in NFL). Palmer has been forced to throw this season because of the lack of running game and is 10th in YPPA (7.67 YPPA) and are facing a great Steelers pass D that allows only 6.13 YPPA (3rd in the league). As you can see, the Steelers will be able to move the ball at will and Cinci's only strength (their passing game) will be shut down! My supersystem has Pitt -7.5 so there is great line value in this game. There is a great trend with the record of 34-10 favoring the Steelers that plays against Cinci for their high scoring game last week. The Steelers are coming off their disappointing loss at Denver and will be ready to bounce back for this divisional game.
Pitt 24 Cinci 13
The Steelers dominated this game. As expected, they attacked Cinci and Fast Willie rushed fo rushed for 126 yards. Cinci's D looked terrible and Big Ben had a decent game except for throwing a pick in the redzone which could have iced the cover even earlier. Easy 3* win!
3* Tampa Bay -3.5 over Jax
Tampa is a very good team this year and Jax defense might look good, but taking a closer look they are not. This week they will have Quinn Gray at the helm who played terrible in his limited playing time last week (2 interceptions). He is going to be in a world of hurt when he visits the Bucs this week. Jones-Drew is also probable but is banged up so the Jags strong rushing game will be limited; the Jags usually average 4.8 YPR (4th). Their pass game is usually below average with Garrard at the helm (7YPPA, 16th) but will definitely take a big hit this week. Defensively the Jags allow 3.9 YPR (13th) and their pass D is terrible allowing 7.5 YPPA (24th). Tampa's run game only average 3.9 YPR (20th), but Garcia has been playing great this year averaging 7.74 YPPA (7th). Defensively the Bucs are very strong only allowing 4 YPR and 6.19 YPPA (4th). Jax will not be able to move the ball on this strong Bucs D. Also, the Jags are coming off a short week off a Monday night game and have to travel to one of the toughest places to play in the NFL. The Bucs BIG!
Jax 24 T.B. 23
Tampa dominated this game in every category except for one, turnovers. Garcia threw 3 picks and one for a TD which was the difference in this matchup. The Bucs held the Jags to only 280 total yards, while Tampa had 385 yards. As I expected Gray only threw for 100 yards. You cannot win in the NFL if you turn the ball over.
2* St. Louis +3 over Cleveland
Cleveland is definitely improved this year but road favorites with bad defenses (like the Browns) rarely cover in the NFL. The Rams are 0-7 this year, and this is precisely why I am betting them. Winless teams are 91-51-1 (64%) as dogs ad 78-35 (69%) against teams with a win percentage of less that .750. The Ram's offense has been bad this year, but they will get just what they need this week, a terrible Browns defense. The Browns allow 4.9 YPR (30th) and 7 YPPA (16th). The Rams manage 3.5 YPR and 5.77 YPPA. With the return of S. Jackson their running game will improve and more importantly Bulger will have more time to throw the ball. Last week versus the Seahawks he was sacked 7 times (for 57 yards), but this week will face a Browns D that has only managed 1 sack/game (29th in NFL). The Browns offense is improved this year averaging 4.6 YPR (9th) and 7.89 YPPA (4th). But, J. Lewis is questionable which will hurt the browns big time. St. Louis' defense is below average, but not terrible; they give up 4 YPR (17th) and 7.2 YPPA. This game is not really about stats, but more on the fact that the Browns always play down to their opponents and the Rams are due for a win. Also, the Rams are -12 in turnover ratio, and I don't see this continuing the entire season especially if Bulger gets more time in the pocket. There are 5 trends favoring the Rams based on their recent poor play including a 54-21 (72%) trend.
Cleveland 27 St. Louis 20
If you would tell me that St. Louis would have a 14-0 lead as a 3 point dog I would love it. But, St. Louis blew it and couldn't get the victory or cover. This seems to be the way the year is going for me. This game was even statistically. The real difference was the inability of the Rams to stop the Browns. They had a shot to send it to OT but got stuffed at the Browns 10 yards line on 4th and 1.
2* Washington +16.5 over New England
When wagering on football you have to look at games objectively. I have bet against New England two weeks in a row, but you can't hold grudges when you bet you have to look at each week independently. This line should not be 16.5; the oddsmakers have to increase the line because the public continues to wager heavily on New England. This gives incredible line value to the opposing team. If you look solely at the statistics this line should not be over 9. The Redskins have one of the best defenses in the league and will be able to hold the Pats for the cover. I was surprised to see that the Patriots rushing numbers, they are not that strong. They average only 4.17 YPR (15th in the NFL) and their rushing defense is terrible allowing 4.4 YPR (24th). This week they will be facing an awesome Redskin rush D that is ranked 4th allowing only 3.5 YPR. Brady is having an amazing year averaging 9.2 YPPA (1st in the league). But, the Skins are 1st in the league allowing only 5.56 YPPA. The Skins run game is below average gaining 3.6 YPPA, but their passing game is not that bad gaining 7 YPPA. Campbell is a pretty good QB if he doesn't make mistakes. I am going to take advantage of the inflated line and ride the Skins. I also recommend taking the money line on Washington at +1100 for .10-.15 units. The Pats are not going to lose to a team that they are "supposed" to lose to (Indy, Dallas) so I think this is a good wager. Don't be afraid to bet against the Pats, the Skins D will keep them in this one for the cover.
N.E. 52 Wash 7
I should have teased the Skins to +45.5, then I would have got the cover. But, since I couldn't do this I took them at +16.5 and they were never in the game. The Pats were simply unstoppable on the offensive end. It looked like they were playing 11 on 8. It didn't help that
Campbell had 4 turnovers (3 fumbles, 1 interception). Like I said above Campbell cannot make mistakes for the Skins to have a chance.
2* N.Y. Jets -3 over Buffalo
Both of these teams are equally bad statistically, and I like to wager on the home team in these contests. Trent Edwards will make his first start on the road in the league and will see how hard it is to play as a visitor. The Jets are off 4 consecutive losses, while the Bills are off a big home underdog win versus the Ravens placing N.Y. in a great position for the victory. Also, the Jets are in a revenge position- they lost to the Bills 17-14 week 4 (this game was evenly matched). As I said both teams are bad statistically. The Bills average 3.71 YPR (23rd) and 6.22 YPPA (27th). Defensively, they allow 4.73 YPR (29th) and 7.23 YPPA (20th). The Jets average 3.37 YPR (28th) and 6.9 YPPA (18th). T. Jones has been playing better and Pennington is on the hot seat and played well last week. Defensively, they allow 4.3 YPR (21st) and 8.3 YPPA (30th). There are 5 trends playing against the Bills; one is 40-13 ATS playing against Buff for their big win last week. The Jets are out for revenge in this one.
Buffalo 13 N.Y. 3
The Jets offense looked like a JV team and only managed 254 total yards. Pennington got pulled in the fourth for Clemens and even he threw 2 picks. They never had a shot.
2* San Francisco +2 over N.O.
New Orleans is coming of two consecutive wins, but they are still not the team they were last year and should not be a road favorite. The Saints were outplayed statistically in both of those games. San Fran is coming off 4 consecutive straight up losses and will be ready for this contest. The Niners are also in a good schedule position. They are in what I like to call a "sandwich" game; they played away last week and have 2 road games after this week (so they know this is a must win). San Fran's offense has struggled this year, but the will face a New Orleans defense that is bad. The Saints allow 25.3 PPG to teams that have averaged 20.9 PPG. Their run D is solid allowing only 3.6 YPR (6th), but their pass D is second to last in the NFL allowing 8.65 YPPA. The Niners running game is 16th in the NFL averaging 4.16 YPR and their pass game has struggled averaging only 5.31 YPPA, but as I mentioned will be facing a terrible pass defense. QB A. Smith and RB F. Gore are listed as probable this week. The Saints offense is also terrible; they only average 3.6 YPR (24th) and 5.64 (31st). Brees is not the same player without a running game, and without Deuce they are struggling running the ball. The Niners defense is very good allowing 3.6 YPR (12th) and 6.49 (8th). New Orleans is overrated and I will bet against them as a road favorite.
N.O. 31 S.F. 10
I haven't seen an offense as bad as the Niners looked in a long time. They could not move the ball at all against a terrible Saints defense. They had only 260 total yards compated to 438 yards. Total domination by the Saints.
Week 9
Week 9 Record: 4-1
2007: 16-18-1
Units: -0.39
1*: .66 to .75 Unit
2*: 1 Unit
3*: 1.3-1.5 Units
4*: 1.5-1.66 Units
5*: 2+ Units
Lines posted are from when I wagered on games, and these will be what I use for record. View individual write ups for specific star changes if the line is different.
2* Indianapolis +6 over N.E.
WINNER
This is one of the most anticipated regular season games in years, and I usually don't wager on these types of contests. But, Indy looks like a strong play this week. I have wagered against the Patriots several times this year and have not fared well, but as I said before you have to look at each week objectively and I don't feel that the Pats should be such a big road favorite. Statistically, these two teams are nearly exactly the same, and New England is on the road therefore this line is wrong. The odds makers have to increase the lines because they are getting so much action on the Pats, and we have to take advantage of this. The line always catches up with teams. For example, last year the Chargers were blowing everyone out early, but when the line caught up to them they did not cover 5 out of their last 7 games. New England's running game is not that strong as they average 4.2 YPR (15th). They will be facing an Indy team that allows 4.06 YPR (13th). In the air, T. Brady has been having an amazing year averaging 9 YPPA (1st). But, Indy has one of the best passing defenses in the league allowing only 165 YPG (1st in the NFL) and 5.6 YPPA (2nd). I don't see Brady eating up the Colts D as he has other teams this year. Indy's rushing game is better that New England's averaging 4.43 YPR (10th). Manning also has been lights out this year and is averaging 7.87 YPPA (5th). As you can see the Colts have a more balanced attack than the Patriots. Though the Patriots passing D is strong allowing 6.36 YPR (6th), but their rushing defense is poor allowing 4.24 YPR (23rd). There are 9 very strong trends favoring the Colts this week. One trend plays against N.E. for their recent rushing domination and is 52-20 ATS (72%). Another trend against the Pats is: teams that have won by more than 14 points in each of the last 3 weeks (New England) are just 2-18-1 ATS when visiting a team with a winning percentage of .500 or higher (Indy), including 1-8 ATS if the road team is also unbeaten on the season (New England). Yet another trend favors Indy and is 29-5-1 ATS the last 25 years, and is 9-1 ATS because Indy is a home favorite. The stats and trends add up to a Colts 2* play.
N.E. 24 Indy 20
This line was definitely too high as the Colts were getting 5 to 6 points here. Like I said the line was jacked up because the public was betting so heavily on the Pats. We also learned that the Pats are human as the Colts had a chance to win in the fourth quarter but blew it in the end. The Golden Boy Tom Brady had 2 picks of his own. This game was basically exactly even. The Colts had 329 yard to the Pats 342 total yards and both teams had 2 turnovers. It was good the Pats won this game because the line will continue to skyrocket and give us even more opportunity to make money betting against them.
2* Tampa Bay -3 (-130) over Arizona
Buy the 1/2 point to bring the line to 3
WINNER
I lost my 3* play on T.B. last week and I am going to ride them this week. Tampa should have won last week but had costly turnovers and I think they will handle Arizona easily this week. Arizona's running game is terrible averaging only 3.8 YPR (22nd in NFL). Their pass game is not much better averaging only 6.79 YPPA (17th), and Warner is banged up. This week they will be facing a very good Buccaneers defense that allows only 16.8 PPG (9th). Tampa's D allows only 3.86 YPR (11th) and an amazing 6.19 YPPA (4th). So, Arizona will not be able to move the ball in this contest. Tampa's running game is average gaining 4.15 YPR (16th). Garcia has been having a very good year (except for his 3 INT's last week) and is averaging 7.57 YPPA (10th). They will be facing a bad Arizona rushing D that allows 4.15 YPR (21st). Their pass D is pretty good allowing 6.5 YPPA (9th). My Super System has the line at T.B. -11.3, a 7.8 point difference. The Super System is 15-9 (63%) this year when the difference is 5 or greater. Tampa is coming off two consecutive losses and Gruden will have his team up for this game; Gruden coached teams are 18-6 ATS after a loss of 3 points or less.
Tampa Bay 17 Arizona 10
Tampa Bay totally dominated this game holding Arizona to only 195 yards. Tampa gained 350 yards and had the ball for 43 minutes (compared to Arizona's 17 minutes)! Warner was rushed all day and was forced to throw 2 picks. E. Graham played a heck of a game for the Bucs gaining a career high 124 yards on 34 carries. Great 2* winner.
1* New Orleans -3 over Jax
WINNER
I don't think that the Saints are the team they were last year but they looked improved the last few weeks. I don't see Q. Gray leading the Jags to a victory on the road against a hot Saints team. With Gray at the helm the Jags will choose to run the ball as they did last week (ran 44 times, passed 16 times). They will not be able to run effectively against a Saints D that allows only 3.63 YPR (5th in the NFL). The Saint's pass D is bad allowing 8.65 YPPA, but this will not come into play because Gray will not be passing often. The Jags D may not allow a lot of points, but statistically they are not a good defense and soon the points will catch up to the yards. The Jags allow 4.2 YPR (22nd) and 7.5 YPPA (25th). The Saints should have no problem moving the ball on this defense. The Saint's numbers over the season are not impressive (they average 3.6 YPPA and 6.05 YPPA), but the last 3 games they have been much improved. The Saints are -9 in turnover ratio that has lead to their losses and this is unlikely to continue as Brees has only 1 interception in the last 3 games (9 in the previous 4). There are 4 trends playing against the Jags based on their underdog victory last week including a 37-12 ATS (over last 5 years) trend. Unfortunately, my Super System has the Jags as a 2 point favorite (but the stats and trends outweigh this) so I will only make the Saints a 1*.
N.O. 41 Jax 24
Things went as expected in this game. Gray had 3 picks while Brees had an amazing 445 yards. As expected the Jags were unable to rush and held Taylor and Jones-Drew to only 82 yards. Looks like the Saint's offense is at their old form, but their pass defense is still weak as they allowed Gray to pass for over 300 yards. In any case, I'll take the WINNER!
1* Tenn -4 over Carolina
WINNER
When you start Vinny at QB you know your team is in trouble. This week Carr will be at the helm for the Panthers. The reason I like Tennessee is because I don't think that Carolina will be able to score much this game. Carolina's only "strength" offensively is their running game and this is merely average gaining 4.4 YPR (11th). This week their running game will be shut down by a very good Titans D that allows only 3.44 YPR (3rd). In the air, Carolina is one of the worst teams in the league gaining only 6.09 YPPA (27th) and will be facing a great Tennessee team allowing only 6.25 YPR (5th). Simply put, Carolina will not be able to move the ball! The Titans offense is not that impressive, but as I mentioned I am wagering on their defense. The Titans average only 6.04 YPPA (29th) in the air, but they are predominantly a rushing team as they average 151 YPG (3rd). Carolina's rush D is pretty good allowing 3.9 YPR, but their pass D is poor allowing 220 YPG and they are ranked 21st in YPP. My Super System has the line at Tennessee -10.9, a 6.9 difference between this and the line. There are trends favoring both teams so they cancel out. I see the Titans holding Carolina and getting the cover.
Tenn 20 Carolina 7
The Titan's D was awesome in this game holding the Titans to only 191 total yards. The Titans were actually -2 in turnover ratio and still managed to win which is very rare (team that wins turnover ratio win games about 90% of time). V. Young had another sub-par game throwing for only 110 yards and 2 picks, but Tenn didn't need much for the win. White was a work horse rushing for 100 yards on 31 carries.
1* K.C. -2 over G.B.
Green Bay is one of the worst 6-1 teams that I have ever seen. They are in a tough schedule spot as they are coming off a tough road Monday night game and will face a K.C. team that is coming off a bye. Green Bay has no running game averaging 3.37 YPR (29th), and Favre averages 7.47 YPPA (12th). Favre is still a gunslinger and I don't trust him on the road and I see him throwing a couple of picks today. The Chief's D is strong allowing 4 YPR and 6.74 YPPA. Offensively, the Chiefs are below average as they only gain 3.27 YPR and 6.9 YPPA in the air. Green Bay's defense is not that strong as they allow 3.83 YPR (10th) and 6.91 YPPA (15th). There are 4 trends favoring the Chiefs. My Super System has the Packers -3 but the schedule factors and trends outweigh this.
G.B. 33 K.C. 22
I am mad at myself for taking this game late. I really thought that the Bay would be flat coming off the Monday night victory. Favre threw for 2 picks but Huard did the same. Green Bay won this game statistically outgaining K.C. by 200 yards. K.C. didn't have the firepower to get the victory.
Week 10
Week 10 Record : 2-2
2007: 18-20-1
Units: +.23
1*: .66 to .75 Unit
2*: 1 Unit
3*: 1.3-1.5 Units
4*: 1.5-1.66 Units
5*: 2+ Units
Lines posted are from when I wagered on games, and these will be what I use for record. View individual write ups for specific star changes if the line is different.
3* St. Louis +11.5 over New Orleans
WINNER
Though St. Louis is not a good team New Orleans does not deserve to be a 11.5 point favorite to anyone. They have been improved over the last few games but their offense (especially rushing) is not where it was last year and their defense is bad. There are 17 great trends favoring the Rams in this game. One trend is 20-4 playing on poor teams off their bye week. Another trend plays on winless teams as road dogs and the Rams qualify for a specific part of this trend that is 48-16-3 ATS. Statistically, the Saints are not a good football team. On the offensive side of the ball they average 3.67 YPR (25th in NFL) and 6.49 YPPA (23rd). The last 3 games their passing game is improved, but their running game is still one of the worst in the leagues. Bush is listed as questionable, but I believe he will play and it doesn't matter because he is not an every down back like Deuce is. The Saint's rushing D is strong allowing 3.66 YPR (6th), but their passing defense is one of the worst in the leagues allowing 8.2 YPPA (30th).
The Rams are having a bad year to say the least, but coming off their bye I see them keeping this one close. St. Louis averages 3.46 YPR (28th), but they are 7th in passing offense and as I mentioned will be facing one of the worst passing defenses in the league. Against the run they are average allowing 4.1 YPR (18th). Versus the pass they allow 7.5 YPPA (24th). The Rams are dead last in turnover ratio at -13 and I don't see this continuing as Bulger will face a terrible pass D. I love the Rams, but I am not going to make this a 4* play because my Super System favors New Orleans (it seems there are contrary factors on many games this year).
St. Louis 37 N.O. 29
There is nothing more gratifying than taking a double digit dog that wins outright! The cover or win was never in jeopardy in this one. New Orleans pass defense looked pitiful (as usual) and gave up over 300 yards to Bulger. Brees threw 2 costly interceptions. Huge 3* win for Byeweekpicks!
2* Miami +3.5 (-130) over Buffalo (Buy 1/2 point)
WINNER
Buffalo has won three consecutive games and covered five consecutive, and I think these streaks are in danger in Miami. These teams are nearly the same statistically and there are multiple trends favoring Miami. Miami knows they will not have many opportunities to win, but they have one here and will be playing their butts off for the victory. The Bills average only 3.82 YPR (22nd) and 7 YPPA (16th). Defensively they are also poor allowing 4.44 YPR (24ht) and 7 YPPA (17th). The last 3 games these are improved, but not dramatically enough to make them a 3 point road favorite. Buffalo is also +7 in turnover ratio and it's amazing they are only 4-4 (this shows how poor they are).
Miami's rushing game is strong with R. Brown in (2nd in NFL at 4.85 YPR), but he is hurt. Backup Chatman had a strong game last week averaging 5 YPR against a strong Giant's D and I see this continuing this week against a horrible Bill's D. Cleo has not been great averaging only 6.1 YPPA. Defensively, the Phins D is similar to the Bills allowing 4.5 YPR and 8.16 YPPA. There are 12 trends favoring Miami many similar to the Rams as both teams are winless teams and off a bye. Also, Miami has the second most difficult strength of schedule in the league are -8 in turnover ratio (which won't continue).
Buffalo 13 Miami 10
I hope you were able to buy the 1/2 point or got Miami +3 for the push in this one. Miami had a shot for the victory but gave up a safety and couldn't stop the Bills in the end. Both teams looked bad, but Miami outgained the Bills by 60 yards and were +1 on turnover, but couldn't get the victory...but more importantly they got the cover!
2* Tennessee -4 over Jax
I was contemplating taking Tennessee before I did because of their offense. But, after watching their defense I am not worried anymore. They are swarming and are right up there with the top defenses in the league. Jacksonville on the other hand has an overrated defense. As I have said the past few weeks, their stats are poor and sooner or later the points would catch up and they did in a big way as New Orleans scored 41 on them (in a victory for byeweekpicks). These two teams faced each other week 1 and the Titans won 13-10 and owned the game (T.O.P. 37 minutes versus 22 minutes). They lost the turnover battle and still won the game which is very rare in the NFL. Jacksonville's defense allows 4.2 YPR (versus teams that have averaged 3.9 YPR) and is ranked 16th in the NFL. In the air they are very poor allowing 7.63 YPR (26th). Offensively, their rushing game is above average gaining 4.4 YPR (8th). Garrard is listed as questionable this week. I would rather Gray play because he is very bad, but if Garrard is injured and if he does play he will not be 100%. Jacksonville is in a very tough schedule position as they are playing their 3rd straight road game. On the other hand, the Titans are playing their 3rd consecutive home game. This is very rare to see this schedule mismatch in the NFL.
Tennessee's is predominantly a rushing team and average 150 YPG (3rd in NFL). Young is not having a great year, but his job is not to put up great numbers it's to win, and that's what he does. The Titan's statistically have the best (yes, better than the Pats) defense in the league. They allow only 3.45 YPR (3rd) and 66 YPG (1st) and 5.94 YPPA (4th). My Super System has the Titans as 8.1 point favorites (if line stays at 4 this is significant). There is a proven 241-154 ATS trend (since 1981) favoring the Titans and a 38-2 straight up winner trend!
Jax 28 Ten 13
I am not exagerating when I say that Young is one of the worst winning quarterbacks in NFL history. He is extremely inaccurate! Tenn got dominated in all aspects of the game. They gave up over 100 yards rushing to Jones-Drew. Gray only passed for 100 yards but it didn't matter as the Titans got dominated at the line of scrimmage.
1* San Fran +10 (-120) over Seattle (Buy 1/2 point)
The Sehawks are a below average and do not deserve to be such a big favorite in this contest. Statistically, these two teams are nearly identical. The only advantage the Hawks have is their passing game and it is raining and windy in Seattle and though Holmgren said he will be a pass first offense I don't think they will be successfell. A major reason I have a play on the Niners is because there are 25 trends favoring them - the most I have had in the last 4 seasons. One trend is 35-9 over the last 23 seasons, including 15-2 over the last 10 seasons (the average score of these games was 22.8 to 22.4)! Another trend plays on San Fran due to their recent poor defense and is 63-19 (77%). Seattle's offense is poor as they average only 3.5 YPR (27th) and 7.1 YPPA (13th). Alexander is listed as doubtful, but it really doesn't matter because he is playing very poorly this year. Defensively, they are not much better as they allow 3.81 (11th) and 7 YPPA (14th). They are still an overrated football team and have lost 3 out of their last 4 SU and ATS. Seattle is 4-4 and has played one of the easiest schedules in the league (30th).
The Niners are coming off 6 consecutive losses and historically these teams have faired well ATS in their next game. In fact, underdogs are 77-40 ATS after 6 or more consecutive losses in the second half of the season. The Niners running game is decent averaging 4.23 YPR (14th) and Gore is listed as probable. Their passing game is pitiful as they average only 4.95 YPPA. Defensively they are solid allowing 3.9 YPR (15th) and 6.71 YPPA (11th). You can see how similar these numbers are to the Seahawks. I also feel the Niners have an emotional advantage in this game as the head coach M. Nolan's father has passed away this week. I am taking the Niners as a 1* play.
Seattle 24 S.F. 0
GUTLESS! I was honestly physically nauseated watching the Niners offense. It was one of the worst offensive displays I have seen in years! The got the ball at Seattle's 30 yard line 3 times and came a way with 0 points each time. They were stopped on 4th and goal at the 1 and then went for it at 4th and 3 at the 20 (what was Nolan thinking?). Alex Smith looked horrible as usual and had 2 costly fumbles. These fumbles were partially the offensive lines fault but you have to be able to feel pressure as an NFL QB and he didn't. Simply...ugly.
Week 11
Week 11: 3-0-1
2007: 21-20-2
+ 3.23 units
1*: .66 to .75 Unit
2*: 1 Unit
3*: 1.3-1.5 Units
4*: 1.5-1.66 Units
5*: 2+ Units
Lines posted are from when I wagered on games, and these will be what I use for record. View individual write ups for specific star changes if the line is different.
3* N.Y. Jets +10 over Pitt
WINNER
I love the Jets in this game primarily because Pittsburgh has played poor on the road versus lesser opponents and does not deserve to be a double digit favorite. How short the betting public's memory is. It was just weeks ago that Pittsburgh lost to Arizona and Denver (who has one of the league's worst defenses) on the road. Don't let Pittsburgh record and stats fool you, they have played absolutely no one (their strength of schedule is 30th in the league). Pitt averages 4.43 YPR (7th) and 8.2 YPPA (3rd). Their defense allows 3.7 YPR (7th) and 5.5 YPPA. I don't see them playing to these stats as they are traveling on the road off a huge win versus the Browns.
The Jets stats are less than stellar, but I am not betting them because of their stats but because Pitt is overrated and don't deserve to be such a big favorite and great situational factors favoring the Jets. They average 3.6 YRP (24th) and 6.6 YPPA (22nd). They allow 4.4 YPR (25th) and 8.2 YPPA (31st). The Jets are coming off six consecutive losses and a bye which puts them in prime position for an upset here. In fact, underdogs off 6 or more losses are 77-41 ATS in the second half of the season over the last 25 years. Also, teams with a winning record (Steelers) are just 62-103-3 ATS as road favorites of 5 points or more against poor teams off consecutive losses. The most amazing trend is 18-0 ATS since 1980! There are 20 more great trends favoring the Jets. I love the Jets, the only reason I am not making this a 4* is because of the stats.
N.Y. Jets 16 Pitt 13
How satisfying is it to pick up a big stack a cash and have the books look at you like...how did you know the Jets would win. Puts a smile on my face from ear to ear. The Steelers were flat in this game and continues to play down to opponents on the road. T. Jones had a heck of a game and became the first RB to rush for over 100 yards on the Steelers in 35 games. Big Bum...oh I mea Big Ben threw for only 195 yards and 1 pick and Fast Willy ran for only 52 yards. J-E-T-S, JETS, JETS, JETS!
2* Baltimore +3 over Cleveland
Push
Cleveland is definitely the better team in this contest, but this is a typical NFL game where Baltimore wins though they are inferior. Cleveland is coming off a huge emotional loss and will be in for a letdown. On the other hand Baltimore is coming off 3 losses including two divisional losses including a home loss against Cincinnati. Don't let the Bengals game fool you, because Baltimore committed 6 turnovers last week which is the big reason for the defeat. Cleveland has a good offense this year, but their defense is pitiful. Cleveland is dead last in the league allowing 29 PPG (versus teams that have combined to score 23). They allow 4.6 YPR (29th), 7.2 YPPA (20th), and 273 YPG in the air (2nd to last in NFL). Even Baltimore's offense will not have trouble moving the ball against this team. Cleveland does score a lot of points, but dissecting their offense they are not overwhelming in either category. They average 4.16YPR (13th) and 7.5 YPPA (10th). Also, the last 3 games their offense has taken a hit as they are averaging only 5.3 yards/play (as opposed to greater than 6 yards/play the prior 6).
Baltimore's offense is poor, but their defense is strong. Baltimore only averages 3.93 YPR (20th) and 5.54 YPPA (31st). But, facing the Browns terrible Defense I think they will move the ball better than average. Boller will be starting in place of McNair which will give them a boost. Baltimore allows 203 YPG passing (12th) and they are 1st in the NFL allowing only 2.7 YPR. This is also a revenge game for the Ravens as they lost 27-13 week 4 in Cleveland. There are 3 trends favoring the Ravens. One trend is: Teams coming off back-to-back games scoring 9 points or less (Baltimore) playing at home against an opponent that has given up 38+ points over last two games (Cleveland) are 20-8 (71.4%) ATS the last 10 years. I'll take Baltimore in a 2* play.
Cleveland 33 Baltimore 30
This was a totally disgusting push. Balt took the lead by 3 with 25 seconds left. They then allowed the Browns to bring it back to near midfield and then allowed Anderson to complete an 18 yard pass. Then in one of the most bizarre plays Dawson kicked a field goal that hit off the upright, bounced off the back post and out. It was originally called no good, but then after review it was good. The Ravens were already in the locker room and that's when I knew it was over. The Browns got the ball in OT and drove right down the field. I have to be the darkest person to walk the face of the earth. This game was even, of course the difference was that the Ravens were -2...I can't get on the right side of turnovers... I am dark!
1* T.B. -3 over Atlanta
WINNER
Tampa is a very good team this year and should handle the Falcons. The Falcons offense is very bad as they only manage 3.8 YPR (21st) and6.5 YPPA (23rd). Defensively they are terrible against the run allowing 4.2 YPR (22nd) and average against the pass allowing 6.7 YPPA (10th). Atlanta is coming off a divisional underdog victory against the Panthers and are in prime position for a letdown. To show you how bad the Falcons are they are an amazing +8 in turnover ratio and still managed to win only 3 games.
Tampa is coming off a bye and will be ready to face their division foes this week. They are a very well rounded team. Offensively they gain 4 YPR (16th) and 7.5 YPPA (9th). Defensively, they allow only 3.77 YPR (10th) and 6.14 YPPA (5th). There is a 33-2 straight up winner trend favoring the Bucs (if they win they will likely cover). Take the Bucs in a 1* play. I would buy the 1/2 point in this contest, if you get it at -3 it is still a 1* play.
T.B. 31 Atlanta 7
These are the type of games I like to bet! Atlanta was never even close in this one. It was 14-0 at half and that was all she wrote. Atlanta's offense looked pitiful and only managed 275 yards and had 4 turnovers. Easy winner!
1* 7 point teaser: Phil -2.5/N.Y. Jets +16.5
WINNER
Let me preface this by saying that I never tease (usually you would have won regardless if you would tease), but Philly has 2 great money line trends (34-2 and 43-4 straight up winners) favoring them but I think the line is too high. I'm not going to belabor the stats. The Phins defense is bad and they have a rookie starting on the road...enough said. I need another side for the tease and I love the Jets (see analysis above for the Jets).
Phil 17 Miami 7
N.Y. Jets 16 Pitt 13
I was a little worried when McNabb went out but Feeley managed the game well. Good thing Miami has zero offense and only managed 186 yards. Westbrook rushed for 148 yards and ate up the Phins D. As I mentioned above usually you will win even if you don't tease and this was the case with both these game, but I felt that the Phins would keep it close and they did most of the game. I saved a couple years of my life with the tease.
Week 12
Week 12: 3-2
2007: 24-22-2
Units: +3.91
1*: .66 to .75 Unit
2*: 1 Unit
3*: 1.3-1.5 Units
4*: 1.5-1.66 Units
5*: 2+ Units
Lines posted are from when I wagered on games, and these will be what I use for record. View individual write ups for specific star changes if the line is different.
2* Indy -13 over Atlanta
WINNER
Indy is coming off 2 poor performances and they will be ready to blowout the Falcons in this game. Manning played poorly as of late and I also look for him to bounce back big time. The Falcons meanwhile are not a good football team and got blownout by the Bucs last week...I see a similar outcome in this contest. Atlanta's offense if pitiful averaging onlyu 3.7 YPR (21st) and 6.3 YPPA (26th). Defensively they are poor against the rush allowing 4.3 YPR and average versus the pass allowing 6.8 YPPA. They are amazingly +6 in turnover margin and still have a losing record, which tells you how bad they are. Indy's rushing game is average gaining 4.1 YPR (15th). In the air Manning throws for 249 YPG and should eat up the Falcon's D. Defensively they are average (3.9 YPR) but their pass D is great allowing only 5.6 YPPA (2nd). My Super System has Indy -19, and it has been great all year! There are trends favoring both t eams. Take Indy in a 2* play.
Indy 31 Atlanta 13
My Super System has been money all year and it had Indy as a 19 point fav in this one and it was nearly right on the number. Indy was down 10-0 early in the game, but rallied back and got the big W. Manning had a good day passing for 272 yards on 22 of 32. Harrington looked like himself throwning 2 picks. Blowout city!
1* Phil +25.5 over N.E.
WINNER
The line has finally caught up to the Pats and I am going to take advantage by taking the dog in this game. Do not be scared to bet against the Pats! The Pats have beat teams by an average of 25 PPG this year, but this takes into account the bad teams they have blown out, and the Eagle are not that bad. 90% of the general public is betting the Pats every week which is shooting the line up. Let's look at the stats. N.E. rushing game is average gaining 4.2 YPR (10th). As you all know Brady is having an all time great season averaging 9 YPPA. Another reason I like the Eagles is because the Pats rushing D is not impressive and the Eagles are going to run a lot in this game to keep the Pats offense off the field. The Pats allow 4.2 YPR (21st). Against the pass they are strong allowing 6.43 YPPA (6th).
Philly's run game is very strong averaging 4.6 YPR (3rd). Feely is starting, but as I don't think that they will take that much of a step back because the Eagles will run predominantly in this game. The Eagles defense is strong allowing only 3.7 YPR (5th) and 210 YPG passing (14th). There are 2 trends favoring the Eagles. My Super System does not come into play this game, it has the Pats as a 24 point favorite. I got this line at +25.5 online. If line 24 or higher still a 1* play .
N.E. 31 Phil 28
Are you kidding me...+25.5? We learned that the Pats are human and can be beaten. The key in this game was turnovers; Philly had 3 to the Pats 0. Otherwise, this was an evenly matched game with each team gaining 400 yards. The cover was never in question...easy winner!
1* Seattle -3 over St. Louis
WINNER
Let me preface my write up by saying I don't think that the Hawks are a spectacular team, but they are better than the Rams and will be able to handle them on the road. The Rams are coming off back-to-back wins in which they beat the Saints and the lowly Niners (barely). The Rams are a very bad football team. Their offense is terrible and they only average 15 PPG (29th), 3.5 YPR (25th), and 6.25 YPPA (27th). Their defense is just as bad as they allow 26 PPG (28th). Their rush defense is below average allowing 4 YPR (18th) and their pass defense allows 7.26 YPPA (21st). As you can see, they are only in the top 20 in one statistical category.
The Hawks have hit a little hot streak as they have won 3 of 4 SU and ATS. Their rushing game is not good as they average only 3.5 YPR (25th), but most of the year Alexander was rushing the ball and he is a very overrated back. Morris is a better RB and is averaging 4.1 YPR this year. Hasselbeck is having a pretty good year; he is averaging 7.2 YPPA (13th) and 254 YPG (8th) in the air. Holmgren has said he intends to pass, and no better defense to air it out than the Rams. Hasselbeck has some banged up ribs but had a full day of practice on Friday and says he feels great. This is not a new injury and he has played well recently and I don't think this will affect him. Defensively, the Hawks only allow 16.4 PPG (5th), 4 YPR (17th), and 6.74 YPPA (11th). Seattle won this game 33-6 a few weeks back and I see a similar outcome. My Super System is 25-15 this year (63%) when the line difference is 5 or greater and it has Seattle as an 11 point favorite. I am going to buy the ˝ point to bring the line to 2.5. I still rate this a 2* play at -3.
Seattle 24 St. Louis 19
I was feeling pretty good about this one when G. Frerotte came in and sure enough he came through with a fumble at the end of the game. With 4th and goal on the 1 Frerotte coughed the ball up and Seattle came away with the win and cover. I got a break in this one, finally.
2* Buffalo +9 over Jax
Jacksonville's defense is very overrated and I don't think they could cover this high line. Meanwhile, the Bills are an underrated team and I am going to take advantage of them at +9. The Jags have won 2 in a row and face Indy next week so they are in a look ahead situation. All of the analysts talk about how good the Jags D is, well let's take a look. They allow 18 PPG, but this is against teams that have averaged only 18 PPG. They allow 4.1 YPR (20th) and a whopp
