Week 1
Lines Posted From Hilton Contest
Home Team First
Week 1: 2-3
Tampa Bay (–3) vs. Baltimore
Pick: Tampa Bay
Baltimore offense was less than stellar last year (ranked 21st and 22nd in rushing and passing respectively). Even with the addition of Steve McNair we do not foresee the Ravens being able to move the ball successfully on the Bucs Defense. We expect the running game to continue to struggle this year, especially with the injury of Jamal Lewis this week. Baltimore’s Defense was above average last year (99.4 against rush and 185.2 against pass). The defense took some hits in the off season, but kept most of their roster and should be strong again, but the Bucs improvement on offense will be too much to handle for an aging Raven’s Defense.
Last year the Bucs only gave up 94.7 rushing yards per game and 183.1 passing yards per game (best in league). The Bucs did not have many changes on defense during the off-season so their defense should be very strong again this year. Tampa needed some help last year on the offensive side of the ball and that is just what they got in the off-season. Their offense of line was a problem last year and they resolved this by using their first two picks in the draft on lineman (Joseph and Trueblood) and making a couple of position switches on the line. QB Chris Simms will also improve this year. He finished last season after Griese was hurt and was 6-2 and completed 61% of his passes. “Cadillac” Williams had a great rookie season with 1178 yards and 4.1 yards per carry despite battling injuries. With the improvement of the offensive line and a year under his belt he will only get better. Our mathematical system has Tampa at –4 so the number is almost right on target.
Baltimore 27 Tampa Bay 0
Ugly! That's all we have to say. Simms looked pitiful throwing 3 picks including one for a TD and throwing for only 116 yards. He was benched midway through the 4th quarter. TB could not move the ball at all on a Ravens Defense that looked good. Bucs only had 142 total yards. Baltimore's offense looked average having only 271 yards, but their defense looked strong. TB was never in the game, the turnovers were too much to overcome.
New York Giants (+3 ½) vs. Indianapolis Colts
Pick: New York Giants
The Colts had an impressive season last year only to be stunned by the Pittsburgh Steelers in the playoffs. Indy’s offense was very good at scoring last year (2nd in league) but their running game was average (106 yards per game). With the loss of James, Rhodes will have to fill the RB position and this will be tough to do (James had 1840 total yards last year). Now that James is gone defenses can concentrate on stopping Peyton Manning who is one of the best QB’s in the league. The Colts scoring defense was very good last year (2nd in league), but taking a closer look they were 16th and 15th against the rush and pass. With the losses of Thornton and Tripplett we expect the defense to struggle making it tough to stop the Giants offense.
The Giants offense was strong last year averaging 138.1 rushing yards per game an 223 passing yards per game (ranked 6th and 11th respectively). The Giants offense should be improved this year with the addition of Sinorice Moss. Barber had a great year with 1860 yards and should produce similar numbers this year. Eli Manning had his share of struggles in the late last season throwing 10 int’s in his last 6 games including 3 in a 23-0 rout at home versus Carolina in the Wild Card. Manning will be improved this year; he worked hard in the off-season and practiced with his college QB coach. The Giants run defense was average last year but their pass defense struggled (27th in league). The Giants greatly improved this off-season in this category picking up Madison, Demps, and McQuarters. They also picked up Arrington which will improve they run and pass defense. New York also has an 11-6 trend favoring them week 1. Our math system has this game at a pick therefore the line is skewed in favor of the Giants.
Indianapolis 26 New York Giants 21
This was a tough loss to swallow. Statistically the NYG dominated the game outgaining the Colts 433 to 327 yards. Then came the heartbreaker at the end when the zebras called a terrible offense pass interference call, then Eli Manning threw a pick the next playto give Indy good field position. Still, the Giants had a chance to cover, but Indy converted a crucial 3 and 2 with 2 minutes left and kicked a field goal for the back door cover. Hopefully, the gambling gods will repay us later this season.
Carolina (-6) vs. Atlanta
Pick: Atlanta
WINNER
Carolina fell just short of a Super Bowl birth last year and this year finds themselves as the frontrunner to win the NFC Championship. The Byeweekpicks.com supersystem has the game rated at right on the line Carolina favored by six. But a main question of their team is their lack of depth , especially at the running back position. Deshaun Foster last year lead the rushing offense to a mediocre season which had left them with a middle of the pack ranking. Rookie DeAngelo Williams will prove to not be the support the Panthers are looking for in the rushing category for offense. With a 4-0 perfect preseason, and many eyes watching over the Panthers, there is too much hype that this team has to live up to for the 2006 season.
Atlanta lost their final three games and four out of their last five contests in 2005 leaving them hungry for the 2006 season. The Falcons, led by Michael Vick, should prosper their year and continue on their trend of being the number one offensive rushing team in the league. The Falcons only improved their running offense with what Byeweekpicks.com was the best non-first round draft pick in running back Jerious Norwood for Mississippi State. Their rushing defense, which last year ranked at the bottom of the league last year at 26 should be much improved with the additions of John Abraham and Lawyer Malloy. These factors, combined with an 11-4-4 ATS trend over their past 19 games versus Carolina, the editors of Byeweekpicks.com are picking the HOTLANTA FALCONS.
Atlanta 20 Carlina 6
Atlanta came to play! They dominated Carolina on both sides of the ball. Offensively, Atlanta had 385 yards versus a Carolina defense that looked sluggish. Carolina's O also looked weak having only 65 yards rushing and 150 passing versus an Atlanta defense that did not allow a touchdown. Vick is trying to prove all the nay sayers wrong having a very good game rushing and passing.
Detroit (+6 1/2) vs. Seattle
Pick: Seattle
The Byeweekpicks.com supersystem has the game rated as Seattle favored by six, which is current with the line. This game and pick comes down to the inexperience of Detroit, as the team ended the 2005 season with plenty of holes to fill… a little too many for the editors of Byeweekpicks to believe there could be a turn around. Although John Kitna is a vast improvement from the “Lion King” himself Joey Harrington, the team has too much ground to make up from the rest of the league. The stability of this team should lie in a core group of receivers, but Kitna will not have enough protection to prove effective against a Seattle defense that ranked in the top ten in 2005.
It is no secret that the losing Super Bowl team does not have the hottest first part of the season. With the core of the Seattle Seahawks remaining with the team, the Super Bowl runnerup is destined to put this trend to rest. Shaun Alexander should have his best season to date, and the addition of Nate Burleson should balance out the offense. This will in turn make for a more rounded offense and improve the only sign of weakness in their passing offense, which still ranked a respectable thirteen in the league. The Hawks are riding a 9-2 ATS record in the month of September, and Byeweekpicks.com look for Seattle to roll in this game….BIG!
Seattle 9 Detroit 6
What happened to Seattle's number one ranked offense that we saw last year, they looked very bad Sunday having only 91 yards rushing and unable to score a touchdown on Detroit's defense. Hasselbeck had a good game completing 25-of-30 for 210 yards. The Seahawks got off to a rough start by having two field goals blocked and losing the football on an Alexander fumble on their first three drives. Those would have been nice for the cover, but Seattle should have punched it in and never been in this position.
Oakland (+3) vs. San Diego
Pick: San Diego
WINNER
The supersystem has San Diego favored by four, which is a slight advantage in comparison to the line. Oakland has been plagued with question marks during the whole preseason, such as should Aaron Brooks take a back seat to number two quarterback Andew Walter. Byeweekpicks.com has the answer for you, it simple does not matter. The Raiders looked awful during the preseason, on all aspects that you could look bad in with the game of football. Look for their defense to be slightly improved with additions to their secondary, but it is their struggling offense that has everyone worried. Randy Moss will continue to be the most overrated wide receiver in the NFL and the Raiders will continue to rank in the bottom half of the league in offense, such as last years performance with only putting up 18.1 PPG. Welcome back to the NFL Art Shell…
San Diego was by far the most talented team that did not make the playoffs in years. Their numbers on both sides of the ball was impressive, ranking fifth overall in total offense and thirteenth in defense. Look for the rushing offense of San Diego, led by LT to dominate the Raiders defense, which last year ranked 29th in rushing defense. Phillip Rivers looked a little shaky in the preseason but showed enough to gain the confidence on the Byeweekpicks.com editors to give the Chargers the thumbs up in week one. We are far from calling Rivers the next Dan Marino as some, but it does not matter who hands the ball off to LT, which is the key in this game.
San Diego 27 Oakland 0
Blowout city! Diego dominated on both sides of the ball. Oakland should not have even shown up. The Chargers defense held Oakland to 129 total yards and had 9 sacks. LT had a great game as usual with 131 yards on 31 carries. Rivers didn't get a chance to show us much throwing just 11 times and completing 8 for 108 yards, but San Diego's running game and defense was enough to control the clock and ultimately the scoreboard.
Week 2
Lines Posted From Hilton Contest
Home Team First
Week 2: 5-0
Overall: 7-3
Cincinnati (-10 1/2) vs. Cleveland
Pick: Cincinnati
WINNER
Oh, the good old Cleveland Clowns. They looked like the same old team that has been letting down the city for 4 decades. With holes in the line as big as the Grand Canyon they are going to have a tough time protecting Frye and running the ball. The Browns finally thought they could get some protection, but when the NFL's top off-season free agent Bentley got injured on the first play of practice their hope was deflated. Cleveland did not show that they improved from last years offense (last in scoring in the league) only gaining 101 passing yards (30th in NFL) and 85 rushing yards (24th in NFL). Their defense also looked poor against a New Orleans Saints offense that is average at best. The Browns also have a tough time on the road where they were 2-6 on the last season.
Cincinnati's offensive performance was not as good as expected last week, having 130 total yards less than they averaged last year. So, look for them to bounce back BIG TIME this week. Their defense was their weakness last year, but it looks to be improved this year. The Bengals held the K.C. to 289 total yards (who led the league with 400 per game last year) and limited Larry Johnson to 68 rushing yards after he ran for 201 and 3 touchdowns in last year's meeting. Welcome the jungle boys!
Cincinnati 34 Cleveland 17
As expected, the Bengals dominated on both sides of the ball. Cincinnati had 481 yards versus Cleveland 301 (surprised they gained this much). Palmer threw for the second highest total of his career, 352 yards. Cleveland never had a chance to win and looked out of sync the entire game. They did have a backdoor cover opportunity in the 3rd quarter, but true to Browns form they could not stop the Bengals. The win was in vain though because the Bengals lost center Rich Braham, safety Dexter Jackson, and LB David Pollack.
Philadelphia (-3) vs. New York Giants
Pick: New York Giants
WINNER
Philadelphia beat a sorry Houston team last week 24-10. They moved the ball at will versus Houston, but so could a high school team, so it is no indication of what they will do versus the Giants defense. Philadelphia defense looked mediocre against a pitiful Texan's offense. Philadelphia is going to have a hard time scoring on a good NYG defense that allowed only 55 rushing yards against Indy.
The Giants looked like a top NFL team last week in their heartbreaking loss to the Colts. Barber had 18 carries for 110 yards and Eli had a good performance(20-34, 247 yards) despite throwing a costly interception in the fourth quarter. Look for an improved Eli Manning to bounce back against an unproven Eagles defense. The Giants can't afford to go 0-2 in a NFC East that is going to be a tight race this year.
New York 30 Philadelphia 24
Wow! Call the retribution for last week's Giants spread loss versus Indy. The Giants trailed 24-7 going into the 4th quarter and the game was about over. In the 4th the Giants outscored Philly 17-0 to take the game into overtime. One touchdown in the 4th quarter included a fumble by the NYG on the 15 yard line that rolled into the end zone and was recovered by a Giant in the end zone…Nice! The Giants threw a 31 yard bomb on 3rd down in OT to win the game. That was gutsy! But taking a closer look at the game it was much closer than the scoreboard showed at the end of the 3rd. The total yards were close (NYG: 404 and Philly: 451) and each team had 1 turnover. It should not have even been a blowout in the first place, but we'll take the great win!
Atlanta (-5) vs. Tampa Bay
Pick: Atlanta
WINNER
Tampa Bay got shellacked last week 27-0 at home against the Baltimore Ravens. Chris Simms looked like his old self throwing for 3 picks and throwing for only 116 yards. Cadillac Williams, who was hampered by back problems, had only 8 carries for 22 yard. The Bucs defense also looked weak giving up 27 points to a Baltimore offense that was very poor last year (although seemingly improved this year).
Atlanta had a great performance last week beating Carolina 20-6 on the road. The Falcons defense looked stellar, revamped with John Abraham, held the Panthers to 65 yards rushing and no touchdowns. Their offense also looked great rushing for 252 yards (ranked 1st in the NFL). Vick looked good too, although his numbers aren't eye-popping, they never are. He had Carolina's defense (which many predict to be the best in the league) on their heels all day. Though Abraham and Kerney suffered minor injuries during the game, they are both hopeful to play. This is also a double revenge game for Atlanta who dropped both to the Bucs last year, one of which knocked Atlanta out of the playoffs. HOTLANTA!
Atlanta 14 Tampa Bay 3
This was a sweater! Tampa Bay should have never been in the position for a backdoor cover. They were dominated the whole game. While Tampa is still searching for the end zone this year, Atlanta set a franchise record rushing for 306 yards versus the Bucs 40. Simms looked like the did last week throwing three picks. Atlanta missed three field goals, including one with three minutes to ice the cover, and had one blocked. TB drove down the field getting down to the six yard line with 10 seconds left and going in for the backdoor, but true to form Simms threw an incomplete pass to end the game. Whew…that was close, but it shouldn't have been.
San Francisco (+3) vs. St. Louis
Pick: San Francisco
WINNER
St. Louis is coming off a win as underdogs at home versus Denver. The Rams offense gained 337 yards against a Denver defense that was tough last season. But, they were unable to score a touchdown resulting in 6 Jeff Wilkins field goals. With the loss of veteran center Andy McCollum last week look for a hole in the line and problems with quarterback exchange. Their rushing defense looked bad allowing 161 rushing yard. Their pass defense on paper looks good, but it was more a result of Plummer playing poorly than the Rams defense playing well. When taking a close look at the game it's easy to see whey they won. Denver had 5 turnovers to St. Louis' zero. That was too much to overcome. St. Louis is getting too much respect to be a divisional road underdog especially on grass where they find it tough to win.
San Francisco had an impressive week 1 performance despite losing 34-27 to Arizona. Alex Smith had a solid game, throwing for 288 yards and no interceptions. He looks like he is becoming the type of QB they expected when the drafted him. The 49ers running game also looked good which I expect to get better against a St. Louis defense that has not showed us much. Statistically the 49ers played better than Arizona, but because of turnovers and time of possession they could not get the victory. Look for the Niners to control the clock more this week by running the ball more efficiently and getting the division victory!
San Francisco 20 St. Louis 13
It is obvious that San Fran is an underrated team. That's why we jumped on them early as a home dog before the oddsmakers realize they are not the same team from last year. The 49ers outgained St. Louis by 100 yards and held Bulger and his strong core of recievers to 147 yards and sacked Bulger six times. Alex Smith looks like he is getting comfortable in the pocket throwing for 237 yards. Gore made the SF offense very balanced running for 127 yards. They looked like the 49ers of the 1980's...ok not quite, but we'll take the win!
Seattle (-7) vs. Arizona
Pick: Seattle
WINNER
Arizona has had the most hype of any NFL team over the off-season. With the dynamic offense that includes Boldin, Fitzgerald, and with the acquisition of Edgerin James they are expected to make noise in the NFC. Last week they beat San Francisco 34-27 (not covering the point spread). Warner had a great day of passing (301 yards) but James was sub-par running for 76 yards on 23 carries. He is going to have a tougher time this year without the strong offensive line that he became accustomed to in Indy, especially against a Seattle rushing defense that allowed only 38 yards rushing last week. Arizona's defense looked unchanged from last year week giving up 393 total yards (30th in league) to an average San Francisco offense and its going to be tough to stop Seattle's prolific offense.
Seattle had a disappointing game last week only defeating Detroit 9-6, so look for them to bounce back big time this week. Seattle's offense was unable to punch it in the end zone having resort to 3 field goals. Hasselbeck looked good (25-30, 210 yards) but S. Alexander struggled rushing for only 51 yards. Alexander will have a big game against the Cardinal's poor defense. Last year he owned Arizona rushing for 313 yards on 45 carries. Seattle will shut down Arizona's run game leaving them one dimensional- Seattle held James to 41 yards rushing last season. Seattle also acquired Deion Branch this week. It is still unsure if he will play, and if he does it will be a boost to an already good wide receiver core. Look for seattle to bounce back big time from their disappointing showing last week...Blow out City!
Seattle 21 Arizona 10
As predicted, Arizona's offense would not produce as expected. The Cards had only 256 total yards (versus Seattle's 341) and Warner looked like a statue in the pocket. Seattle's offense did look out of sync at times and not as effeicient as the NFC champs of last year, but they were still goid enough to overtake a very weak Arizona defense. Seattle had control the entire game. Arizona did have the ball in the 4th looking for the backdoor, but Seattle's strong defense held them. It was a nice victory for a great week...5-0!
Week 3
Lines Posted From Hilton Contest
Home Team First
Week 3: 2-2-1
Overall: 9-5-1 (64%)
Indianapolis (-7) vs. Jacksonville
Pick: Jacksonville
Push
Indianapolis is not the same team as last year. With the loss of Edgerin James, their running game has been struggling (20th in the NFL). It will only get worse versus a Jags run D allowing only 57 yards per game. Of course, Manning looks like his old self, but look for a brutal Jags defense to shut him down. Indy's defense has been their weak spot the last few years and it looks to be the same this year. They are ranked 27th in the league versus the run. Look for an improving Jags offense to expose the Colts struggling defense. With the injury of Freeney on D the Colts will find it even harder to stop Jacksonville.
Jacksonville is getting no respect, and they are on of the best teams in the league. They have been home dogs both of the first two weeks. They have a tough punch-you-in-the-face defense that will manhandle the soft Colt offense. The Jags give up only 181 yards passing per game and with the pressure Manning is going to feel look at that Colt passing game to struggle. The Jags are also 16-5 ATS after scoring 15 or less points the week before. The Jags will earn the public's respect after this game!
Indianapolis 21 Jacksonville 14
First things first, there's no crying in bettine! Especially when you push. But it was so close to a win. Kickers are going to be the death of us. How can a professional kicker with only one job miss a 24 yard field goal? We don't know either. To make it worse it hit the post. The game was very evenly matched (297 yards for Jacksonville versus 272 yards for the Colts). The only difference in the game was an 82 yard punt return by the Colts. It was a dog fight, but we'll take the push (1/2 point in Hilton Contest).
Buffalo (-6) vs. NY Jets
Pick: NY Jets
WINNER
The Buffalo Bills are coming into Week 3 off a huge divisional win on the road versus Miami. Only problem with that win is the fact that it was against Miami, and by now I think the word is out that Dante Culpepper being how should we put this…not good. The Bills passing defense ranks in the top ten in the league, (7th -163 YPG), but do not let that fool you, because one of those games was against the depressing Dolphins. Adding to their defensive trouble, Spikes being question leaves a big hole, physically and mentally in the linebacking core. The Bills offense has not been great this year and Losman is struggling (second to last in NFL). It is going to be hard for then to score enough to cover the 6. In addition, the Buffalo Bills are 6-17 ATS after a division win of ten or more points. Buffalo will come out flat, and stay flat until the end of the game. The public is jumping on the Buffalo bandwagon to early.
In contrast, the Jets are underrated! Looking at a hard loss last week, the Jets are 18-6 ATS coming off a home divisional loss. Look for Chad Pennington to have a huge game. Right now, the Jets have the number three passing offense in the league. With the J-E-T-S, people often forget that when there was a healthy Pennington, the Jets, Jets, Jets were a Super Bowl contender. Not by any means we are saying the gets are even a playoff team as of yet, but with 294 YPG in the air, against the Bills, Pennington will be HUGE. The Jets rushing offense has been struggling (19th in the league) but look for this to pick up against a Buffalo D (25th in rushing defense) without Spikes.
NY Jets 28 Buffalo 20
As expected, the Bills came out flat and the Jets were able to get a divisional win on the road. The Bills actually out gained the Jets by 200 yards, but the turnovers were too much to overcome. Surprise, surprise, Losman had 3 turnovers. Go J-E-T-S!
Houston (-4) vs. Washington
Pick: Washington
WINNER
The Texans do not have much proverbial light at the end of the tunnel. They rank in the bottom half of the league in every category one could imagine, with a highlight being their passing offense ranked 19th in the league with 181 YPG. Their passing defense ranks 32nd in the league, which could be a little misleading due to the fact that last week they had the task to face Peyton Manning.
Can you really picture a Joe Gibbs team starting a season 0-3? Yeah, neither could we. The Washington Redskins are not only the non-politically correct team in the league (excuse us, one of our editors is a sensitive Native American), but they are 6-0 coming off back to back straight up losses. They also have a 7-2 ATS trend working in their favor after losing a game by more than 15 points. Washington should elevate their rushing offense by the "true return" of Clinton Portis, which looks to dominate the rushing defense of the Texans, who give up over 120 YPG. This should be a pick-up-the-pace game for Brunell, but again the key to this game is the Texans horrid rushing defense. Welcome to byeweekpicks.com Mario Williams!
Washington 31 Houston 15
Domination in every aspect of the game! The Skins out gained Houston by 240 yards and had the ball for 38 minutes versus the Texans 22 minutes. Brunell looked revitalized passing for 261 yards on 24-of-27 passing. The Skins D held the Texans to 61 yards. It was never a game.
Cleveland (+6 1/2) vs. Baltimore
Pick: Baltimore
Cleveland, Cleveland, Cleveland. Poor Charlie Frye. I don't know where to begin, so let's just start with injuries. Droughns, Jurevicius, Russell, Baxter. All of these injuries are just too much to overcome. The best statistic on paper for the Browns is their passing offense ranking, which will soon be on the decline due to Jurvecius being with the fact that Droughns was the only back they have which quasi led to a balanced offense. With Droughns, the Browns ranked 26th in the league for rushing offense, with only 71 YPG. And now going up against Baltimore's stingy rushing defense, there is no good news for Baltimore.
Before we get too much farther into the analysis of the Baltimore Ravens, the editors of byeweekpicks.com would like to get the following message out to make sure we are all on the same page. WE DO NOT THINK BALITMORE IS A GOOD TEAM. Regardless of what some people want to tell you, the Ravens still cannot move the ball in the air, being ranked 28th in the league with passing offense, only putting up 147 YPG. Their defense is phenomenal giving up only 33 YPG on the ground and 120 YPG in the air, which is more than good enough for the Browns. But let's be honest here, they played Tampa Bay and Oakland… come on. But, Cleveland is on the same level as these teams, so we see a similar outcome. And on a small foreshadowing event, look for byeweekpicks.com to be picking against Baltimore in the not so distant future.
Baltimore 15 Cleveland 14
In true Browns fashion, they found a way to lose and let the city that loves them so much down again. They are definitely the unluckiest franchise in sports. With a 14-12 lead with 2 minutes left Frye threw a pick in the end zone, which lead to a game winning Ravens field goal. Baltimore looked weak the entire game. Their offense was never in sync, and their "great" defense looked like a practice squad. The cover was never in question. We did not expect the Browns to look so good on both sides of the ball. They were able to move the ball with ease on the Ravens D. But, of course they couldn't get it done in the end, but they did just enough to cover.
San Francisco (+6) vs. Philadelphia
Pick: San Francisco
Philadelphia gave up a 17 point lead in the 4th quarter last week, to help add fuel to the fire of what was a 5-0 week for byeweekpicks.com. Some people say the Giants won by the skin of their teeth, and had a few lucky breaks. That's a long flight and a long time to think flying to San Francisco. Let us tell you what byeweekpicks.com has to think, Philly is only minimally improved from their 6-10 team last year. With Kearse being out for the season, two corners of Hood and Sheppard being out, look for their defense to come out flat. Real flat. Their rushing defense was ranked 11th in the league, but look for that to go on the decline now that Kearse is out. The loss of two corners does not help their passing defense, which is current giving up 245 YPG. The Eagles passing offense is ranked second in the league (328YPG), but with a Sherlock Holmes quick glance, most of ranking came off of a Houston team, which is not the defensive powerhouse of the NFL.
Someone please give San Francisco some RESPECT! Gore has found a new role in the offense on the 49ers and led them to averaging 117 YPG. Alex Smith is showing why he deserved to be drafted number one and Vernon Davis is showing early signs of being a stud. The passing offense of the San Fran is 6th in the league, throwing nearly 260 YPG, and look for that number to go up when facing a disheveled Philly secondary. There is also a supersystem NFL trend dating back to 1982 that is a 65% winner in the 49ers favor. Last year, Philadelphia spanked, and I mean spanked San Fran 42-3 and look for this game to be revenge from last year… and a huge momentum swing for the 49ers exciting Steve Young so much he will spill his morning coffee with that awkward left hand of his.
Philadelphia 38 San Francisco 24
Philly bounced back after their tough loss last week to spank the Niners. McNabb had a good game throwing for 296 yards. Smith also played solid throwing for 293 yards with no picks. S.F. got down early and could not come back. When they finally were trying to make a run, Gore fumbled on the 1 and the Eagles returned it 98 yards for a touchdown. But, in the end Philly's offense was too much to handle.
Week 4
Lines Posted From Hilton Contest
Home Team First
*Indicates Best Bets
Best Bets Ranked Higher Than Top Picks
Week 4: 2-3
Overall: 11-8-1 (58%)
Best Bets: 1-0
Atlanta (-8) vs. Arizona
*Pick*: Atlanta - Best Bet
WINNER
Arizona was supposed to be improved this year, but they showed what they were made of last week. With a chance to win Warner fumbled (surprise, surprise) with two minutes left to give St. Louis the victory. Warner is way past his prime and going against a swarming Falcon's defense he will only struggle more. As expected James has not been able to produce like he did in Indy and the Cards are only averaging 85 yards rushing per game (22nd in the NFL). Arizona's defense looks just as bad giving up 21 points per game including 18th versus the rush and 28th versus the pass. It was rumored that Leinhart would get the starting role this week, but it looks as if Warner will get the nod instead (good!).
Atlanta is coming off a tough loss versus an emotionally high Saints team. Look for them to bounce back big time this week (8-1 ATS off a road loss). With the combination of Warrick Dunn (second in the league in rushing trailing McGahee by only 1 yard) and Michael Vick Atlanta's rushing offense is 1st in the league averaging an astounding 225 yards per game. As usual Vick's passing numbers are not great, but he knows how to win, especially at home versus a terrible Arizona team.
Atlanta 32 Arizona 10
Atlanta totally dominated this game. Even with their inability to score in the red zone they were able to blow out a sorry Arizona team. The Falcon's defense looked amazing giving up only 187 total yards, with the Cards only TD coming on a 99 yard interception return. As expected. Warner looked his age throwing for only 128 yards, 0 TD's, and 1 interception. Vick looked great rushing for over 100 yards and having average passing stats as he usually does. Blowout city for byeweekpicks first best bet victory of the season.
Buffalo (-1 1/2) vs. Minnesota
Pick: Minnesota
On paper, Minnesota and Buffalo seem to be matched up pretty evenly. Buffalo is coming off a tough straight up home divisional loss versus a very good and underrated Jets team. Most professionals think that Buffalo at home is going to bounce back this week. The thought probably surrounds the rushing offense, led by Willis McGahee, having a solid week (being ranked ninth in the league, averaging 124 YPG). However, the Minnesota defense is giving up just 87 rushing YPG and proved themselves last week versus the Bears (whose play calling revolves around the word run) to be tough as all hell. This will have the Bills trying to put the ball in the air, which is not good news if you are a Buffalo fan. Experience is everything, and J.P. Losman simply doesn't have it. The Bills struggle against good teams, they are 2-12-1 ATS in their last 15 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Minnesota has beat two teams in Washington and Carolina who people have chalked up as "fluky" wins. However, last week, having a gutsy performance against the Bears, they made believers out of at least the editors of byeweekpicks.com. We believe the passing game is going to be the key on both sides of the football, and Buffalo does not have one. In passing offense, the Bills are ranked 29th in the league, averaging only 171 YPG. While Minnesota's passing defense is nothing spectacular, averaging 200 YPG, ranked 15th in the league, but it will suffice perfectly fine. On the other side of the ball, we feel that the numbers are misleading for Buffalo having the 7th ranked passing defense in the league. They were exploited last weekend by Mr. Pennington, and look for those holes to be found this week by Brad Johnson.
Buffalo 17 Minnesota 12
This was a pretty evenly matched game, and we actually had a chance to win late. Minnesota was putting together a drive inside one minute going for the victory when the ball fell out of wide open Robinson's hands. Ouch…that hurt. But the Vikings were trailing almost the entire game, so they really did not deserve to win. Despite trailing, they actually outgained the Bills. But, their slow start in the first half was too much to overcome.
Cincinnati (-6) vs. New England
Pick: Cincinnati
Let's get one thing straight. The New England Patriot dynasty is over! The Pats defense used to be their backbone, but it's struggling with the loss of all the personnel. The pats are giving up 227 passing yards per game. Even the unbreakable Bill Belichick appears to be shaken throwing jabs at Chad Johnson. When was the last time you heard a coach talking mess to a player, let alone the straight arrow Belichick. Without a fierce running game Tom Brady has a 78.5 passer rating (20th in the league). There is no way they will be able to keep up with the Bengals high flying offense.
The Bengals offense is dynamic averaging 28.3 points per game. They are averaging 121 yards rushing and 200 yards passing. Their defense is improved this year also, allowing only 15.6 points per game. With their balanced offense and Carson Palmer showing he is one of the best quarterbacks in the league the Pats will not be able to stop them. The Bengals also qualify for a 14-1 ATS factor for undefeated teams. Here comes the changing of the guards!
New England 38 Cincinnati 13
The Bengals got beat on both sides of the ball. They were never in the game. They were outgained by 150 yards, including 230 rushing yards versus 70 for the Bengals. That is just too much to overcome. So much for the changing of the gaurds (at least for this week).
St. Louis (-5 ½) vs. Detroit
Pick: St. Louis
WINNER
This is a game that is surrounded by hype for both teams. Unfortunately, the hype is not for any of the players, rather it is for the return of Mike Martz coming back to St. Louis for the first time since he left the Rams. The Lions are coming off of a loss to everyone they have played this season, including the likes of Seattle, Chicago, and Green Bay. The Lions have a solid quarterback in John Kitna, and are actually ranked 8th in the league averaging 243 YPG. This leads for a slight advantage for Detroit, which faces the Rams passing which is very respectable ranked 14th in the league giving up 192 YPG. The only problem is, all of the Lions passing yards seem to come between the two twenty yard lines. The Lions red zone offense is just unmentionable.
On the offensive side of the ball, the editors of byeweekpicks.com feel that St. Louis is a balanced team. Their rushing offense averages over a 100 YPG, compared to the Lions 63 YPG, with a passing attack that averages 214 YPG, which puts them at 14th in the league. Look for that passing number to drastically improve this week. The Lions defense ranks just about last in the league giving up 269 YPG in the air which put them down at 29th in the NFL. Some say Mike Martz knows the playbook, and knows the team and will be able to anticipate the offense. Others say there is a reason Mike Martz was fired from St. Louis because he has no idea how to run a balanced offense and ran that team into the ground. We fall in the "others" category. In addition, St. Louis is 14-4 ATS at home off back to back division games. Look for a high scoring game, mostly from St. Louis, who loves their home turf.
St. Louis 41 Detroit 34
Mike Martz returned to St. Louis, and you also saw the return of “the greatest show on turf” with the Rams putting up 41 points. By putting up 300 plus yards in the air and 100 plus yards on the ground, the balanced offense attack of St. Louis proved too much for Detroit. The game was much closer than the editors of byeweekpicks.com would have liked, covering on a 2 point conversion, but we will take it as a win! The defense of St. Louis definitely showed some holes from the word go…
Washingon (+2 ½) vs. Jacksonville
Pick: Jacksonville
Joe Gibbs and Washington got their first victory of the season, congratulations Skins, but I am going to be the bearer of bad news. It was against Houston… With now game tested and 100% Clinton Portis into the line-up, the rushing offense of Washington seems to be rolling along pretty well in the league averaging 143 YPG (4th in the league). That may come to a sudden halt when they face Jacksonville, who is averaging giving up only 59 YPG (3rd in the league) which is nothing but bad news for the Skins. Their passing offense is not something you want to write home about, ranked 20th in the league averaging only 192 YPG. Simply put, the Skins have not beat anyone yet and always open the season flat with a record of 6-21 ATS at home in the first month of the season.
On the other side of the coin, you have the Jacksonville Jaguars who have chalked up victories against both Dallas and Pittsburgh. They were dealt a tough loss last week against Indy, but the editors of byeweekpicks.com feel that under the leadership of Byron Leftwich, the Jaguars will be more ready than ever going into Washington. The Jag's offense puts up respectable numbers on paper, averaging 126 YPG on the ground and 195 YPG in the air, but those numbers are definitely worth taking a second look at. The Jags have played three defensive teams who are league leaders, and when push comes to shove they get the job done! Again, the defensive is the key for the Jags, as they will completely take away the biggest and potentially only weapons Washington has in Clinton Portis. The Jags are a great bounce back team with a record of 9-1 ATS after scoring 14 points or less.
Washington 36 Jacksonville 30
Mark Brunell throws 330 yards versus his old team, mostly by passing to his favorite target Santana Moss. In addition, they also ran through the Jaguars rushing defense by lighting them up for 140 yards, compared to Jacksonville who ran for under 50 yards! There were 23 points scored in a fourth quarter in which the Jaguars overcame two deficits, including a 10-point hole with 6:40 remaining. In the end, it was Santana Moss, who single handedly beat the Jacksonville Jaguars. Was the defense of Jacksonville gutless (see lingo)? We believe so.
Week 5
Lines Posted From Hilton Contest
Home Team First
*Indicates Best Bets
Best Bets Ranked Higher Than Top Picks
Week 5: 5-0
Overall : 16-8-1 (67%)
Best Bets: 3-0
San Francisco (-3 1/2) vs. Oakland
*Pick*: San Francisco - Best Bet
WINNER
Oakland may be one of the worst teams over the last few decades. They are averaging 9 points per game, that's right 9! For some reason we think it is going to be tough for Andrew Walter to win on the road. Oakland is dead last in passing offense averaging 70 yards per game. They actually had a chance to win last week but blew an 18 point lead to the lowly Cleveland Browns. Walter threw for 68 yards against a poor Browns D. The Raider's defense may be just as bad as their offense. They are giving up 145 yards rushing per game (28th in league). Oakland plays bad as a dog, where they are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games.
San Fran is a very underrated team this year. Alex Smith looks to be a solid QB averaging 271 yards passing per game. They also have balanced offense with Gore who is having a great year (82 yards/game). Granted, their defense can use some work, but they will bounce back huge after giving up 41 points last week. Their O was shut out and now returning home look for a big bounce back week. San Fran is 8-1 ATS off a road game.
S.F. 34 Oakland 20
Oh those damn Raiders. They lived up to the hype of one of the worst teams in the league. The Raiders even tried to go to back up Tuiasosopo after Walter threw two picks, but good old Tuiasosopo threw two himself. Statistically, the game was actually close but you can't overcome turnovers like that on the road. Frank Gore continues to impress rushing for a career high 134 yards. BIG best bet victory for byeweekpicks.com.
Denver (-4) vs. Baltimore
*Pick*: Denver - Best Bet
WINNER
The public is high on Baltimore, but we know who the real Ravens are. You cannot win without a good offense and the Ravens may appear to have an improved O, but let's take a closer look. Balt is averaging 4.4 yards per play versus teams that allow 4.8 yards. They have not played any real competition except for San Diego last week where they squeaked one out. They are ranked 23rd and 17th in passing and rushing, respectively. The reason they appear to be better than they really are is because they only average 1 turnover per game, and it has been shown that current turnover margin has no prediction of future turnovers. Baltimore will come out struggling after their huge emotional win last week.
Denver has not looked spectacular early this year, but is coming off a bye and a big win at New England. Part of the reason Denver has struggled is because they have been committing turnovers. The first couple games Plummer was reverting back to his old self, but looked improved against the Patriots. The Broncos rushing offense is great (4th in the league) and will finally give Balt's defense a challenge. Denver's defense is solid and it will be tough for Balt's sub-par offense to move the ball. Denver will come out rested where they are 14-4 ATS off a bye. Let's see who the real "Air McNair" is.
Denver 13 Baltimore 3
Are you guys off the Ravens bandwagon yet? As expected, their O looked less than stellar against a tough Denver D. McNair showed his true colors throwing three picks and one for a touchdown. McNair actually got lucky when he fumbled on the 12 yard line and his lineman was able to pick it up. The only Ravens score was on a field goal that resulted from a turnover. It's tough to win with no offense boys. Granted, the Broncos O did not look great either, but it was enough to get the cover. Good victory to go 2-0 on best bets this week!
N.Y. Giants (-4) vs. Washington
Pick: N.Y. Giants
WINNER
The Washington Redskins are coming off a big win as they start to pick up some momentum for the season. Last week, the Washington Redskins ran for more than 140 yards, which was the key of the game for the editors of byeweekpicks.com. For the season, they are rushing for more that 140 YPG, which is good enough to rank them sixth in the league for rushing offense. That all will change when the Washington Redskins step in the Giants Stadium. The Giants, at home, are giving up only 55 YPG, good for second best rushing home defense in the league. Even though the Redskins passing offense is ranked 10th in the league, averaging 226 YPG, they need that ground game to open up the passing game. The passing game (let's just call a spade a spade) is one player by the name of Santana Moss.
In addition, the Giants are coming off a bye week, and which assisted in having a very healthy team. The Giants also are 65% ATS since 1992 against the Washington Redskins, including going 2-0 ATS in the past two games at Giants Stadium. With much gossip surrounding the New York football Giants and then sleeping through the first quarter, look for Eli Manning to come out firing at home. The Giants are rated second in the league in the passing offense category, and will be facing a Redskins secondary which is ranked in the bottom of the league at 26. Eli lights up the crowd in the first quarter, the Skins won't move the ball on the ground, and the Giants win.
N.Y. Giants 19 Washington 3
Those politically incorrect Redskins got their butts handed to them by the G-Men. This was really a one sided game with the Giants outgoing the Skins 411 to 164. Brunell looked like he did before he played the Texans last week, throwing for 86 yards. Eli looked brotheresque throwing for 256 on 23 of 33. Let's go G-Men!
Minnesota (-6 1/2) vs. Detroit
Pick: Minnesota
WINNER
Detroit is an NFL team, the7 have to win sometime right? The editors of byeweekpicks.com feel that eventually, Detroit will squeak out a game here and a game there, but it will not be this week. The Detroit Lions only average 70.5 rushing YPG this season, and all bets point to that number decreasing with the upcoming performance against the Vikings. Although the Vikings are averaging giving up 89 YPG, they have played all top rushing teams in the league, including the Bills, Redskins, and Panthers. In a league comparison, Minnesota rush defense is ranked 11th in the league compared to the bottom of the league Lions ranked 29th.
The largest advantage that the editors of byeweekpicks.com want to focus in on comes in the form of Minnesota's passing offense. Minnesota is ranked 11th in the league average 226 YPG in the air, and that number should "skyrocket" playing a Lions secondary who is giving up 288 YPG, which has them ranked 30th in the league. Brad Johnson has looked solid and steady throughout the year, and will throw all over the Lions.
The supersystem, now in full effect, also shows an eight point difference in the line favoring the Vikings, and we are going to start to ride what has proven to work in the past.
Minnesota 26 Detroit 17
Okay, okay so we got lucky here…finally. We consider this one repayment for our other unlucky losses this year. This was one of the best back door covers we have had money on. With 1:30 left good old John Kitna threw an interception that was returned for a 45 yard TD. We knew he would come through for us. What a great win!
Green Bay (+3 1/2) vs. St. Louis
Pick: Green Bay
WINNER
St. Louis, love to hate them, simply because people do not realize how terrible they really are… especially on the road. Let me state that again, especially on the road. Their defense on the road, is giving up 114 YPG, while in the air they are giving up 240 YPG. St. Louis will continue to have solid day at work in the air, but they will not be able to round for round with Farve. Come on, they should of lost to Detroit last week at home.
The editors of byeweekpicks.com love picking with a team one week and completely against them the next. That is exactly what we are doing this week with St. Louis, treating them like the whores they are. Farve coming back with some piece of adversity against him, we will take him every time. Green Bay is ranked forth in the league at passing offense averaging 261 YPG, and again there may be some semi-sized holes found in the secondary of Detroit.
The byeweekpicks.com supersystem has this game as a nine and a half point swing in this game in comparison to the spread, favoring the Packers. You know what happens when there is a nine and a half point swing with the supersystem favoring the Packers, you bet it and forget it.
St. Louis 20 Green Bay 23
Hope you guys got this one in early and got the half. The line eventually went to 3. GB actually had chance to win or send it to OT, but Favre fumbled on the Rams 11 yard line with under a minute to play. The game was even statistically, but Favre continues to disappoint. But, hey we got the Win for a 5-0 week!
Week 6
Lines Posted From Hilton Contest
Home Team First
*Indicates Best Bets
Best Bets Ranked Higher Than Top Picks
Week 6: 2-3
Overall: 18-11-1 (62%)
Best Bets: 4-1
St. Louis (+3) vs. Seattle
*Pick*: Seattle - Best Bet
How is St. Louis 4-1? We are asking ourselves the same question. Well, here's the answer. St. Louis is +12 in turnover ration which is the best in the league. Turnovers are about 80% random therefore it is unlikely that St. Louis will continue their good fortune. In addition, their strength of schedule is 27th in the league. The teams that they have played have a combined record of 7-17! So, that explains St. Louis' record. Everybody is bragging about St. Louis' new and improved rushing offense, but really S. Jackson is the only improvement (tied with Gore for league leading rusher). The Rams only average 106 YPG rushing(17th in NFL). Bulger is having a solid year and has yet to throw a pick yet (214 consecutive passes without an interception), but look for that to change this week against a pressuring Seattle defense. We have said many times that it is hard to win in the NFL without a tough defense (especially a run defense). The Rams are giving up 121 YPG rushing (20th in NFL). Though Alexander is out, we look for Morris to step it up this week. Holmgrem actually said that without Alexander it opens up Seattle's offense.
Seattle has not looked like a Super Bowl caliber team thus far this year. And we know MVP Alexander and Engram are both injured, but that's alright. Seattle is coming off an embarrassing loss to Chicago (37-6) on national television Sunday night and had a bye week to think about it. Statistically Seattle is struggling both running and passing, but with the extra week they will be able to get their offense back in sync against a Ram's defense giving up 334 YPG (22nd in NFL). Seattle's rush defense (7th in NFL) is going to shut down the overrated Ram's offense and force Bulger to make plays, and like we said, the interceptions will come. LET'S GO HAWKS!
Seattle 30 St. Louis 28
This was a tough one to swallow. Trailing the entire first half the Hawks made a comeback and were up 27-21 with 3 minutes left inside the Rams 10 yard line. Morris fumbled the ball and gave it back to the Rams. We were still in the lead when the GUTLESS Hawks gave up a 67 yard touchdown pass. And to piss on our face when we're down the Hawks kicked a field goal to win the game but not cover. Ouch! First rule of betting- take your losses like a man, and come back big next week.
N.Y. Jets (-2 1/2) vs. Miami
*Pick*: N.Y. Jets - Best Bet
WINNER
The Dolphins had high hopes this year, but it looks like those have deflated. Joey Harrington will be starting at QB this week in place of newly acquired Culpepper, but both quarterbacks are equally mediocre. The Phins offense had been struggling this year only averaging 12 points/game versus teams giving up 22 points/game. With the loss of receiver Marty Booker it will be tough to move the ball, even though the Jet's defense isn't that great. Miami's rushing offense is one of the worst in the league averaging 84 YPG. Their passing game is average passing for 200 YPG, but this is against teams that have given up 225 YPG. The Dolphins pass defense looks good if you focus on passing YPG, but looking at completion percentage the Phins opponents have completed 62% of their passes. Pennington is 4th in the NFL in completion percentage so he will have a big day!
If you've been following this year you probably realize that we love betting the Jets this year because they are so underrated. They got dominated last week losing 41-0 to Jacksonville. Pennington was held to 71 yards so we look for him to lead the Jets to a big bounce back week. The Jets defense needs improvement, but we don't see the Dolphins offense making any moves this week. With the Dolphins poor rushing offense it's going to force Harrington to throw…and that is what we want to see!
The byeweekpicks supersystem has the Jets as 8 points favorites. J-E-T-S!
N.Y. Jets 20 Miami 17
Sweatin'! Why does every game we bet make us sweat? The Jets were up 20-3 with 10 minutes left and looked like they were cruising when Miami made a comeback. It took a missed 51 yard field goal with 33 seconds left to seal the deal. Good job NFL, gotta keep it close to keep those ratings high. But in the end, out best bet got the win! J-E-T-S, JETS, JETS, JETS!
Baltimore (-3) vs. Carolina
Pick: Baltimore
I would like to first start off by stating that YES, we the editors of byeweekpicks.com know we have stated numerous times that Baltimore is not a good team. And YES, we knew Baltimore was a huge play against last week because they actually played someone good. But, this week… just too good to pass up… So, with our teeth grinding, and wish the numbers were different; we have the following to say:
Baltimore is ranked forth in the league for opponents scoring average, with only 9.2 PPG, while Carolina is 23rd in the league giving up 17.2 PPG. In addition, the passing defense of Baltimore should completely shut down anything that the Panthers throw at the Ravens. Their arsenal in the air is not even close to being good enough to put up any points in the air. The Panthers only average 177 YPG (25th in the league), which is pretty dark on their own, but the news is even worse looking at the 145 YPG that Baltimore is giving up per game.
The Ravens have solid three star and four star trends because they are coming off a Monday night loss (their first lose of the season) and going into a bye week. And as always, you have to ride what works, and what is working is the byeweekpicks.com supersystem. The supersystem my friends, is showing that the Baltimore Ravens should be at -10, and as I learned in grade school, ten is bigger by seven fingers more than the current line, which is 3. A byeweekpicks.com supersystem seven point difference? Bet it, and forget it.
Carolina 23 Baltimore 21
We knew this one was over when McNair went out in the first quarter with a concussion. Baltimore finds it tough to muster a comeback with McNair at the helm, just imagine the time they had with Kyle Boller. But, we expected to win if Balt scored 21 points, but their D let us down. They gave up 414 yards and Steve Smith scorched them for 189 yards. So much for Balt's "great" defense.
Dallas (-13) vs. Houston
Pick: Dallas
WINNER
Let's just jump right into some numbers for this one. Texans are only putting up a little more than two touchdowns per game at 16.5. This is of course because they decided to concentrate on defense, and pass on Reggie Bush in the draft. So let's see how that one is working out. Oh, yeah, that's right; the defensive side of the ball is REAL dark for the Texans. The Texans give up 28.3 PPG, good enough to be ranked 30th in the league. They give up 140 YPG on the ground (25th in the league) and almost 300 YPG in the air, carrying the title of having the worst passing defense in the league. But in fairness, they are trying real hard, and everything is bigger in Texas, or something.
On the offensive side of the ball, the Dallas Cowboys offense is due for a huge game. They are coming off a tough emotional loss last week versus Philly and are going to bounce back BIG. Drew Bledsoe will put all these little whispers in sports announcers' ears to rest and blow up this game. He may have 23 touchdown passes. Literally, 23. 21 of them will be to TO. Again, Dallas could have their worst defensive game of the year, and the Texans will still only put up 16 points in the game, compared to the potential 161 points Dallas will score. The Texan's struggling running offense (26th in NFL) is going to find it hard to run against a Dallas D allowing only 75 YPG rushing. Look for Dallas to come out hot from the start and never let down as they crush the Texans.
Dallas 34 Houston 6
Alright, we'll admit we were a little bit worried when the Cowboys were down 6-3 at half, but we knew Dallas' offense would come alive. As predicted T.O. had a big game scoring three touchdowns. The lowly Texans only managed 34 rushing yards and Carr struggled throwing two picks and 0 touchdowns. Dallas was just too much to handle.
New Orleans (+3 1/2) vs. Philadelphia
Pick: Philadelphia
New Orleans just pulled out the victory last week at home versus Carolina. Consider that game the official end of any emotional advantage the Saints brought into the game playing in a newly reconstructed Super Dome. The Saints are one of the surprise teams of the 2006-2007 NFL football season, but let us take a little closer look at that situation and who their strength of schedule. Besides playing towards an emotional "W" against Atlanta, they Saints have the weakest strength of schedule in the league to this point.
New Orleans averages only 23 points a game, even with having the seventh ranked passing defense in the league (240 YPG). And this simply will not be enough points to hold off the Eagles. The Saints, with much talk always surrounding Reggie Bush and Deuce McCallister tandem, are respectively putting 110 YPG on the ground. Good enough to be ranked 14th in the league. However, the Eagles are averaging giving up 104.8 YPG on the ground, and the editors of byeweekpicks.com view the rushing game as a push. This means that the Saints must put up huge numbers in the air with Drew Brees, and that just is not going to happen. At least not 31 points huge.
Philadelphia's offense is just too much, especially in the air. Philly picked apart a solid Dallas secondary last weekend, and will ride that momentum pony towards Saints. By looking at just the rankings, Philadelphia is ranked first in the league in passing offense and the Saints carry the award for being ranked ninth in passing defense. However, Philadelphia is averaging 303 YPG while the Saints give up 182 YPG. That's a hundred more YPG differential, and we will tell you this friend, the Saints will lose that battle as both averages will be on the rise… That is all Philadelphia needs my friends. The Saints just will not keep pace with the Eagles.
N.O. 27 Philadelphia 24
Hmm…maybe the Saints are for real. They played a heck of a game versus a tough Eagles team. The game was pretty much even statistically (N.O. 372 total yards versus 325 for Philly). The big difference was Philadelphia's punt fumble at their own 15 that lead to a Saints touchdown. But we have to tip our hat to the Saints for playing a good game and getting a good victory (just wish it wouldn't have come at our bankrolls expense).
Week 7
Lines Posted From Hilton Contest
Home Team First
*Indicates Best Bets
Best Bets Ranked Higher Than Top Picks
Week 7: 2-3
Overall: 20-14-1 (59%)
Best Bets: 5-2
Top Picks: 1-0
Seattle (-6 1/2) vs. Minnesota
*Pick*: Minnesota - Best Bet
WINNER
Seattle is obviously not the same team they were last year, and are very overrated by the public (this was apparent last week when we had them on our first best bet loss of the season). Seattle's prolific offense has become a mere average NFL offense. Even when Alexander was not injured their running game was not good, and without him it is even worse. Seattle averages only 109 rushing YPG (19th in the NFL). It is obvious that the loss of guard Steve Hutchinson has hurt the running game this year. Hutchinson is now returning to his old stomping grounds where the Seahawks disrespected him, and he will be pissed. That's good news for Minnesota! Hasselbeck has also not shown us anything this year. He is 197 YPG passing and is ranked 17th in QB rating (82.3). And, it doesn't help that Engram is injured. Seattle's D is nothing to brag about either. They are giving up 22 PPG and are ranked 28th in passing D (239 YPG!). Seattle is coming off a big emotional win at St. Louis and is in a let down position.
Minnesota has been a very solid team this year. Offensively, Johnson is doing a good job throwing the ball (9th in the league), and will be able to pass easily against a bad Seattle pass D. Chester Taylor has also been having a good year and with the help of Hutchinson we look for him to have a big game. The Viking's D has also been very solid this year. They are giving up only 16 points per game (versus teams that average 22 PPG) and there running D is awesome giving up only 77 YPG (4th in the league). Seattle's ex-prolific O won't move the ball easily. Minnesota is going to be well rested coming off a bye week. The byeweek supersystem tells us that Seattle should only be a 2 ½ point favorite, giving Minnesota the advantage. Minnesota also qualifies for a 68% statistical trend. All of these factors add up to a best bet for Minnesota. Let's go Vikings!
Minnesota 31 Seattle 13
Blowout City! The Vikings dominated this game. Like we thought, Seattle only had 53 yards on the ground. Chester Taylor had a career high 169 yards including a 95 yard run (longest in Vikings history) behind Hutchinson. It didn't hurt that Hasselbeck got hurt and backup Seneca Wallace had to step in, but even before tihs they were winning the game. Good underdog win for a best bet victory!
Indianapolis (-9) vs. Washington
*Pick*: Washington - Best Bet
How overrated are the Colts? Let us tell you. Offensively, their passing game is solid of course because of Manning's precision, but it takes more than that to win (and cover big point spreads) in the NFL. The colts are only average running the ball averaging 111 YPG and they should not gain more against a solid Washington D. The Colts have not won a super bowl yet because of their defense and have not done much to improve it. They are dead last in rushing D! Does that sound like a super bowl caliber team? Indy is ranked 26th defensively in yards per play (versus Washington that is 3rd offensively in yards gained per play). Indy has also had a very easy competition so far ranked 26th in strength of schedule.
Washington is coming off an ugly loss as a double digit favor last week versus Tennessee and should be focused for their game versus Indy. Wash is averaging 131 YPG rushing and should eat Indy's run D alive. Portis is going to have a BIG day. Brunell has been inconsistent this year, but is having a decent year ranked 11th in overall passing. He should have time to sit in the pocket because Indy is ranked 29th in sacks and Washington does not give up many. Washington is going into a bye week and will let it all out of the field. There is a 43-19(69% since 1995) and a 22-6 (79% since 1995) stat trend favoring the Wash that plays against poor rushing teams. There is also a 40-15 (73%) stat trend against Indy.
Indianapolis 36 Washingon 22
The only thing that worried us a little about this game was Manning thorowing all over Wash, and that's exactly what happened. Manning threw for 342 yards completing 25 of 35 passes. Washington played an average game offensively, but Indy's O was too much to handle.
Oakland (+3) vs. Arizona
Pick: Oakland - Top Pick
WINNER
I know what you are thinking. How can you bet on the Oakland Raiders? Well, let us explain. Arizona had a major meltdown last week versus the Bears and they will be totally discouraged this week. Dennis Green went nuts in the post-game press conference and then fired his offensive coordinator, who is now filing grievances with the league. This team is in shambles. Arizona has zero running game being ranked 31st in the league. Leinart actually has played surprisingly well for a rookie. Fitzgerald is out this week and this will cut back on Leinart's options. Zona's D leaves much to be desired. They are terrible on the road, giving up 26.5 PPG. Their offense is also poor on the road only averaging 10 PPG.
Oakland has been struggling this year, ok they have stunk this year. But there is a bright spot. Oakland is ranked 1st in passing D (that's right, 1st). So, they are going to stop Zona's passing game and force them to run, which is something the Card's can't do. Looking at strength of schedule Oak has played some very good teams and is ranked 4th. Another reason Oakland is 0-5 is that they are -9 in turnover ratio, and this shouldn't continue. Oakland applies to a trend betting on winless home dogs and also a 22-4 (85%) trend that plays against Arizona because they are such a poor running team. The only factor that is stopping us from taking Oakland as a best bet is Andrew Walter's inability to prove himself as an NFL QB, but we consider them a TOP PICK. The Raiders!
Oakland 22 Arizona 9
Hope you guys had the stomach to bet the Raiders, I know it was tough. Oakland actually played a good game, with 395 total yards, including 258 yards by Andrew Walter (also had 2 picks though). Like we thought, Arizona came out flat and Leinart was just 13-for-32 for 203 yards and two interceptions. No team could go winless in the NFL, even the Raiders. Good win for a TOP PICK victory.
Miami (-4 1/2) vs. Green Bay
Pick: Miami
Green Bay is as bad as everyone thought they would be. Their O has not produced much of anything averaging only 17 PPG. Brett Favre is prolonging his career for no reason. Favre is throwing for a lot of yards, but he just doesn't have it. He is ranked 25th in the league in passer rating. G.B.'s running game also stinks, rushing for only 109 YPG. Their defense is going to find it hard to stop any college team let alone an NFL team. They are dead last in passing D! They are giving up 28 PPG and 378 YPG (2nd to last in league).
Miami's record may not show it, but statistically they are actually not that bad of a team. Their defense is actually one of the best in the league. They give up only 265 YPG (4th in the league). Especially tough is their pass D that is ranked 6th in the league. The Packers only hope to score is on their passing game, and it will be shut down! If the Pack will have to go to the rush they'll get stuffed their too, the Phins give up 91 YPG rushing. Miami is even better at home, giving up only 13 PPG. We know Miami could use some help on the offensive end, but we think even Harrington could beat the Packers, especially against the last rank pass D. Miami is coming off a tough division road loss to the Jets, is off 3 road games, and is 0-6 against the spread which puts them in a nice position for a cover here.
Green Bay 34 Miami 24
How bad is Miami? 0-7 ATS, that's hard to do. Harringtons 414 yards passing was overshadowed by his 3 picks, one of which went for a TD. Favre on the other hand didn't throw any picks. We have said it many time you cannot win if you commit turnovers. Miami actually outgained G.B. by 100 yards, but couldn't find a way to win.
Dallas (-3 1/2) vs. N.Y. Giants
Pick: Dallas
This is a big divisional rivalry, and we usually stay away from games like this, but this is too hard to pass up. The Giants are a very good offensive team, ranked 3rd in both rushing and passing O. But, their D leaves something to be desired, especially on the road where they are giving up 27 PPG. They are also coming off a big road win as a dog which puts them in position for a letdown game.
Dallas has been up and down this year and tough to figure out. But one thing is constant; the Tuna loves Monday nights and will have his team ready to play. Dallas has a great running game rushing for 152 YPG (3rd in the NFL) and should have an easy time running versus the Giant's D that is ranked 17th in rushing D. Bledsoe is having an average year, but we look for him to pick up the pace and connect with T.O. on some big plays on primetime. Dallas is going into 3 consecutive road games so they know they must come out big, as opposed to N.Y. who is going into 3 home games. Trendwise, there is a 106-61 trend (since 1983) applying to the Boys. There are also 2 trends (74%, 78%) against the N.Y. Giants for their recent hot streak.
N.Y. Giants 36 Dallas 22
Are the Cowboys gutless or what! Down 12-7 Bledsoe throws another pick in the end zone at the end of the first half and it was all downhill from there. Bringing in Romo was a good idea, until he threw 3 picks of his own. And T.O., who talks about everybody else dropped an easy 4th down conversion in the open field. The Cowboys got man handled especially on the O line and deserved to lose.
Week 8
Lines Posted From Hilton Contest
Home Team First
*Indicates Best Bets
Best Bets Ranked Higher Than Top Picks
Week 8: 2-3
Overall: 22-17-1 (56%)
Best Bets: 5-4
Top Picks: 1-0
Week 8 Review: Tough week losing both best bets and going 2-3, but we are still making cheddar at 56% and are looking for a big bounce back for Week 9.
Denver (-2 1/2) vs. Indianapolis
*Pick*: Denver - Best Bet
You've heard it a million times from us, but we're going to say it again Indy is overrated. Finally they have a worthy opponent that we can bet on. This is the perfect situation for Indy to get their first loss. Indy is second to last in rushing D giving up 158 yards per game and will be exploited by a very good Denver rushing offense. We all know about Indy's pass offense, but their rushing offense is average gaining only 111 YPG. They have not had any competition this year and have the 31st ranked strength of schedule in the league.
Denver has had an amazing D this year, but their O has been struggling. As mentioned above Indy's rush offense is average and will have a difficult time moving the ball against the Broncos 7th ranked rushing D in league. We know that Manning is going to have to pass for the Colt's to score and Denver is giving up only 180 yards passing per game (8th in NFL), so Indy will have a hard time putting points on the board. On the other side of the ball, Denver has only averaged 13 PPG and we feel they will put up more this game. Denver is 4th in rushing O (143 YPG) and will be facing a sorry Indy rushing D. Denver won't have to score many points to beat the Colts this week. So this is what we have been waiting for, a team that could run all over Indy and won't let Manning pass up and down the field. Denver also applies for a 52-22 trend playing against Indy for their recent passing game.
Indy 34 Denver 31
All we have to say is Manning is a machine. Exactly what we predicted happened, well almost. Denver ran for 227 yards! But they left too much time at the end for Manning. Statistically the game was about equal, but Denver's inablility to stop the pass was the ultimate downfall.
Minnesota (+2 1/2) vs. N.E.
*Pick*: Minnesota - Best Bet
N.E. is a road favorite on Monday night? We think it's odd too. The reason they are is strictly based on their name. Vegas knows if they put the Pats as a dog too much money would come rolling in on them, so we're going to take advantage of the bad line. N.E. passing game has been weak this year averaging only 193 YPG and Brady is ranked 16th in the league in passer rating, not where he usually sits. Their running game is what keeps the Pats in the game. They are 6th in the league averaging 132 YPG, but are only averaging 3.9 yards per carry (17th in NFL). They are not going to be able to control the clock like they have been because Minnesota's rushing D is 1st in the NFL giving up only 71 YPG (3.1 yards/carry). Defensively, N.E. is not what they used to be. They are ranked 22nd and 20th against the rush and pass, respectively. Simply put, they are not the dynasty they once were.
Minnesota is having a very good year and is an underrated football team. Their offense is solid, rushing for 116 YPG (10th in NFL) and 210 passing yards per game. They should exploit a bad Patriot passing D. They will also be able to control the clock with their strong run game. They are 3rd in the league in time of possession. The Viking's D is very good giving up only 16 PPG (6th in NFL), and have the best rushing D in league as mentioned above. Byeweekpicks supersystem has Minne favored by 2 1/2. There are 2 65%+ trends playing against N.E. for their positive turnover ratio and 3 trends on Minne for being a Monday night home dog and coming off a road dog win, including a 71% trend. Big Winner!
N.E. 31 Minnesota 7
This game was straight up darkness. Brad Johnson had a pitiful game throwing 3 picks including one on the goal line. Brady scorched the Viking's D for 372 yards. Offensively the Vikes did not do much; the had 284 total yards. Minne was out of this game by half time and the Pats never looked back.
Tenn (-3) vs. Houston
Pick: Tenn
WINNER
Oh those Houston Texans, coming off a huge underdog home blowout versus Jax now traveling to Tennessee; perfect for blowout city. Statistically, Houston is the worst team in the league. Offensively they are ranked 30th and 19th in the NFL in rushing and passing, respectively. They are not any better defensively.
They give up 139 rushing YPG (27th) and 247 passing YPG (31st). It's not line Houston has had strong competition this year; their strength of schedule is 18th in the league.
Tennessee is coming off a bye after a big win at Wash. They will be rested and have momentum going into this game. They are a good rushing team averaging 115 YPG and will tear it up against Houston's terrible D. Young has been coming on strong and will light it up against the second worst pass D in the league. Tenn is 7th in yards per pass versus Houston who is 24th in yards per pass. Defensively, Tenn is weak against the run (165 YPG), but with Houston's terrible run O they should be able to contain them. Tenn is pretty good against the pass only giving up 199 YPG and we see Carr struggling after his big game last week. Tenn has had strong comp this year; strength of schedule is 5th in NFL. The Titans qualify for an 83% trend playing against the Texans, and also a 68% trend against the Texans for their poor rushing offense.
Tenn 28 Houston 22
Tennessee forced 5 Texan turnovers in this game and was the difference in the win. Carr threw 3 picks before he was benched and was replaced by Sage Rosenfels (one of byeweekpicks favorite names and bum quarterbacks). But poor Sage, on his second play he threw a pick. Turnovers were the real difference. Houston actually outgained Tenn 427 to 197. We were a little scared of the backdoor cover at the end when the Texans tried for an onside kick, but luckily Tenn jumped on it.
Cinci (-4 1/2) vs. Atlanta
Pick: Cinci
Atlanta is coming off a big home dog win versus Pitt that puts them in perfect situation for a let down this week against Cinci. Offensively, Atlanta is dominant on the ground averaging 227 YPG, but a lot of these yards come from Vick. This week Atlanta will be traveling to a cold and rainy Ohio and won't be able to run as easy as they do indoors. The Falcons are dead last in passing (133 YPG) and Vick is coming off a huge passing game so we look for him to have a bad game this week. Defensively, Atlanta stinks against the pass (25th in NFL) and Palmer will be able to scorch them. Atlanta is average against the run (12th in NFL) and with the loss of Abraham they are going to find it hard to stop the run and get pressure on Palmer.
Cinci's O has not been what it was last year, but it's going to pick up this week. Cinci's averages 215 passing YPG (12th in NFL), but Palmer will light it up this week. The Bengal's D has also been mediocre, but will be good enough to stop the Falcons. Cinci is ranked 13th in passing D and will be good enough to stop Vick after his big game. There are 4 65% NFL trends playing against the Falcons based on their underdog win last week and their recent ATS hot streak. Welcome to the Jungle! How you gonna stop ocho cinco?
Atl 29 Cin 27
Vick was too much to handle for a mediocre Cinci D. He not only hurt them with his feet, but also his arm. Vick was 20-of-28 for 291 yards passing. Cinci had a couple of missed opportnities including an Atlanta fumble at their own 10 which they failed to jump on. Offensively, Cinci had an average game gaining 331 yards.
San Diego (-9) v.s St. Louis
Pick: San Diego
WINNER
We've been hating on St. Louis all year and will continue this week. St. Louis flat out stinks. The only part of their game that is strong is their passing O where they are ranked 4th. Rushing they only average 94 YPG (26th in NFL). Defensively, they are even worse. They are 23rd and 22nd against the run and pass, respectively. The only reason they are 4-2 is because they are +11 in turnover ration, and this won't continue forever. And, they are 28th in strength of schedule. They have also covered 4 in a row, so are ready for a loss ATS.
San Diego is going to shut down St. Louis. Like we said, all the Rams can do is pass, and San Diego only gives up 160 YPG passing (2nd in league). The Rams can't run the ball and will find it even harder to run on a Charger's defense that gives up only 82 YPG rushing. Merriman will be playing this week while he appeals his suspension. S.D. is also good offensively ranked 3rd in rushing O and 13th in passing. The byeweekpicks supersystem has the Chargers as 17 1/2 points favorites. There is a 224-143 trend (61% since 1983) against the Rams for the ATS hot streak.
S.D. 38 St. Louis 24
Diego had too much offense for the Rams. The Chargers had 419 yards of total offense. Bulger had a solid game throwing for 311 yards but Diego's run game was too much.
Week 9
Lines Posted From Hilton Contest
Home Team First
*Indicates Best Bets
Best Bets Ranked Higher Than Top Picks
Week 9: 4-1
Overall: 26-18-1 (59%)
Best Bets: 5-4
Top Picks: 2-0
Washington (+3) vs. Dallas
Pick: Washington - Top Pick
WINNER
Tony Romo is the savior of the Dallas Cowboys…not really. Romo had a pretty good opening last week, but it will be a different story now that the momentum is lost and Dallas is on the road against a division foe. Dallas is a very solid team this year on both sides of the ball. Offensively they average 141 YPG rushing and 224 YPG throwing. We see that passing number going down and Romo throwing a few picks with the return of Springs and Rogers for the Skins. Dallas' running D is also solid ranked 4th in the league, but will be facing a good Washington running game averaging 128 YPG. The Boys' passing D is average being ranked 12th in the league. Dallas is coming off a big emotional road win in Carolina and are in a tough position this week where they are 3-12 ATS away off a win by 21+ points
Washington has had a disappointing year thus far and are in a must win this week. They have lost three in a row and are coming off a bye and will be ready to play. Dallas beat Washington once this year and it is very tough to beat a team twice in the NFL, and Wash is 6-0 in last 6 revenging a road loss. Washington is averaging 24.3 PPG at home this year with a dominant running game (4.6 YPR). On the defensive side of the ball Washingon is struggling against the pass giving up 239 YPG, but this should improve with the return on their starting cornerbacks. There are 8 trends from our database on Wash (one of the most we have seen in the last couple years). One of the best trends we have (25-6 in last 5 years) is on Wash based on the defense and high score last game. Another is 33-9 playing against Dallas for their dominant offensive performance last week. The five others are all better than 65%. The only factor holding us back from making Washington a best bet is Dallas' potent offense, but we will consider them a TOP PICK.
Washington 22 Dallas 19
Wow! This was probably our best victory ever! If you guys missed this we'll fill you in. With 31 seconds left Washington missed a 49 yard field goal. Dallas drove right down the field and Mr. automatic Vanderjagt came on the field for a game winning field goal. So we counted it as a push and we were content with a 3-0-1 one o'clock performance. But wait...it must have been known that the Skins were a top pick. The field goal was miraculously blocked and recovered by the Skins. While I was screaming for Taylor to jump on the ball to force overtime he picked it up and started to run (NO!). Taylor ran to the Dallas 45 and a 15 yard face mask was tacked on. The game cannot end on this penalty so with no time on the clock Washington hit a 47 yard field goal. Amazing!
St. Louis (-2 1/2) vs. Kansas City
Pick: Kansas City
WINNER
Wow! We at byewekpicks.com wanted know more about this game before we put in the analysis, and we love it even more now. They say great things are worth the wait, and this pick is definitely one that was worth waiting for. So without further delay, let's just get right to the key of the game…And that key comes in the form of Larry Johnson. Last year weeks nine and ten were about the time that LJ solidified his spot as this year's number one player taken in most fantasy drafts. This year, he is peaking at the same time. The rushing offense of KC is getting hot, real hot…KC is averaging 112 YPG worth of rushing offense which is good enough to be ranked 13th in the league. But that number is quite misleading as the Chiefs had a very slow offensive start and have been trying to find the rhythm after the "grey wonder" Trent Green went down.
As for the other side, the Rams defense is giving up 134.86 YPG on the ground, which puts them in the bottom on the league ranked 27. There is only one excuse for this to happen, and anyone following the editors of byeweekpicks.com the answer comes in one word that starts with a "G" and rhymes with hutless. GUTLESS, and that is exactly what St. Louis is. The only highlight of the team is their passing offense which is forth in the league averaging 256 YPG in the air. Bad news is that the secondary for KC is coming up huge, especially in their past two wins, being ranked 7th in the league, giving up only 181 YPG. The editors at byeweekpicks.com think that the Rams are the worst plus .500 team in the league this year by far, maybe even in the history of life. We love this game even more with the updates that we received today in the Hilton contest; St. Louis is the number two pick of the week. And let me tell you this friends, let's call a spade a spade and state that the public is wrong most of time. St. Louis is 13-32 ATS off a non-conference game.
Kansas City 31 St. Louis 17
As we said we love going against the public and were right on the money here. St. Louis actually won the statistical battle (452 vs. 317 total yards), but had 3 fumbles. We knew LJ would dominate and he had 172 yards rushing. Huard did not throw much but was efficient throwing for 148 yards with 3 TD's and no picks. Love going against the public.
Baltimore (-3) vs. Cinci
Pick: Baltimore
WINNER
Last week… wow did I want to take a numero doc right on "Ocho Cinco's" face. We, the editors of byeweekpicks.com would also like to preference this write-up and pick by stating that we hate Baltimore. We hate Baltimore probably more than we hate big road favorites. But my friends, if there is one thing that we can't stand for in the league is an all-around gutless team with a defense that doesn't show up… Cincinnati fits that description perfectly. Cincinnati is averaging 22.14 PPG against a Baltimore defense that is giving up only 13 PPG. All signs point to the Baltimore defense winning this battle on the field, with the numbers heavily favoring the Ravens. Ray Lewis and his core of linebackers lead the league in rushing defense giving up 66 YPG on the ground. On the other hand, Rudy Johnson and Chris Perry for the Bengals are 96 YPG (26th in the NFL), but won't even get close to that number this week. The passing offense looks to be close to a stalemate with the numbers. Cincy averages 221 YPG in the air and Baltimore is giving up 207 YPG. However, look for the Bengals to quickly have to turn to the pass because of a rushing offense being completely shut down, and the editors of byeweekpicks.com do not think Carson Palmer can win that type of game. Baltimore isn't the offensive powerhouse of the league, but they should get the job done against a gutless (see lingo) secondary that looks like they are in prevent the whole game. This game is not going to be a blow out, but Baltimore has something to prove to a divisional rival.
Baltimore 26 Cinci 20
Balt jumped on Cinci early and held them off. Balt outgained Cinci by 100 yards and McNair had a very good game throwing for 245 on 21-of-31 passing. Palmer got eaten up by Balt's D throwing 2 picks. Had a little backdoor cover scare, but Balt is the opposite of gutleess; they have pride. Cinci's D on the other hand is gutless (see lingo), it's like noone is there.
Tampa Bay (+1) vs. New Orleans
Pick: New Orleans
WINNER
From having some slight living in New Orleans experience, there is one secret an editor of byeweekpicks.com is going to share with you. New Orleans is not the only place you can have hand grenades, if you go to tropicalisle.com, you can have hand grenade mix delivered straight to your door and then…
We leave with that story to tell you this; the editors of byeweekpicks.com were a little startled when the line for this game came out. The super system has this game listed as New Orleans as a road dog at -5. And then the line came out at -1… and the best reasoning we could have for the differential is that the Saints are on the road. Ahh, my friends, the story comes around full circle, and we tell you this, New Orleans is not the only place that the Saints play football. The Saints are a super system "bet it and forget" type of game.
Why do people still think that Tampa Bay is going to catch fire? How is a team averaging only 12.6 PPG going to catch fire? The best looking stat for Tampa Bay is that Reggie Bush and Joe Horn are not definite for the game. Tampa is pretty much getting dominated by the numbers. For defense, which we would say is their "better" side of the ball, they are giving up 146 YPG which is good enough to be ranked 30th in the league. As a light of the end of the tunnel, their passing defense only gives up 193 YPG in the air, which almost has them cracking a top ten stat. Oh wait, darkness comes along as the Saints are third best in the league averaging 263 YPG.
For sake of embarrassment, I do not even want to mention the offensive numbers for Tampa Bay. Let's just say even against the 21st rushing defense in the league in the Saints, who average giving up 122 YPG, they are still not favored to gain much on the ground. 41-19 ATS away off an ATS loss. In an easy victory, look for the Saints to roll and the hand grenades to be delivered to households worldwide.
New Orleans 31 Tampa Bay 14
Umm...I am very confused about this game. New Orleans was too easy. How did the line to go T.B. - 1 1/2 ? I know that alot of tour services had T.B. big, maybe that moved the line, but from our stand point N.O. was so easy. Brees was dominant throwing for 314 yards. N.O. dominated and T.B. was never in the game.
New England (-2) vs. Indy
Pick: New England
Alright, I know what you're thinking we bet against Indy every week. We are not steamin', we are just going with the facts. Indy continues to struggle against the run (last in the league) and will have a hard time stopping the Pats. Indy has been picking up their rushing game (108 YPG), but will be shut down by the Pat's D. We know Manning is a machine (and tough to bet against) but he is 1-7 at Foxboro and struggles against the Pats D.
New England has been looking good lately and is coming off a strong win at Minnesota. They are averaging 125 YPG rushing and are going to dominate the running game and control the clock. Brady has been his old self with ice in his veins and going to eat up Indy's injured D. The Pat's rushing D is awesome this year giving up only 78 YPG (3rd in NFL). They are struggling against the pass (219 YPG), but Belichick will shut Manning down like they always have. The trends are in New England's favor; there are 6 trends including a 22-4 (since 1995) trend against Indy for their poor rushing offense. New England has dominated Indy going 18-6 ATS vs. them in recent years.
Indy 27 N.E. 20
Disgusting. You can't expect to beat the Colts throwing 4 picks (2 of which were not Brady's fault), fumbling once, and having 8 penalties (many which lead to key 3rd down conversions). Faulk dropped 2 key passes one for a TD and one on the last drive leading to an int. Too many missed opportunities including not being able to convert off of 2 missed Vinatieri field goals (which doesn't happen often). Oh yeah, Manning is not human.
Week 10
Lines Posted From Hilton Contest
Home Team First
*Indicates Best Bets
Best Bets Ranked Higher Than Top Picks
Week 10: 3-2
Overall: 29-20-1 (59%)
Best Bets: 6-4
Top Picks: 2-0
Philadelphia (-7) vs. Washingon
*Pick*: Philadelphia - Best Bet
WINNER
Get ready boys and girls this is our biggest wager of the year! Washington is coming off a huge WWF (see lingo) win against a division foe and will be in prime position for a let down as they travel to Philly. Offensively Wash has a solid running game averaging 127 YPG (8th in NFL), but their pass game is struggling averaging only 196 YPG (21st in NFL). Overall, they are ranked 29th in the league in total yards/play. The Skins defense leaves much to be desired. They are 15th against the run and 30th against the pass (243 YPG). You know what that means...McNabb is going to eat them alive. Washington has struggled on the road averaging only 16.5 points per game. Philadelphia started off hot and has stumbled lately. They are coming off 3 losses (all of which were by 7 or less) and a bye last week, so they will be ready to play this week. 2 weeks ago they faced the Jags and were held to 6 points so look out this week. The Eagle's offense is one of the best in the league averaging 26 points/game. Philly has a very good running game averaging 5.1 yards/carry (2nd in the NFL) and will dominate the Skin's mediocre rush D. Like we said above McNabb is going to have a HUGE game. McNabb
has been lighting it up this year (best in the league in yards and 4th in passer rating). Defensively, the Eagles Run D is average (19th in NFL, 118 yards/game) and will be good enough to hold Portis. Brunell will be shut down versus an Eagle's D that is 2nd in the league giving up only 9.5 yards/pass. Philly applies to a 33-2 straight up trend (teams won by an average of 12 points) that plays against Washington for winning as a conference underdog last week. Also, Reid is 7-0 after a bye week. Like we say on our home page intuition plays an important role and this is the perfect NFL situation for blowout city! We will not post this as our game of the year because we think that a bigger game will be coming up, but this is our biggest bet thus far.
Philadelphia 27 Washingon 3
Big win for our largest play of the year! This game went as expected with Wash coming out flat and staying flat. McNabb had a good game throwing for 222 yards and Philly outgained Wash by nearly 100 yards. Brunell stunk it up throwing for 132 yards, 0 TD's and 1 pick. Big win!!!
Atlanta (-7 1/2) vs. Cleveland
Pick: Atlanta
Those damn Cleveland Clowns. You thought they had a shot at upsetting San Diego last week, but hope was lost when they couldn't get in the end zone and were forced to kick 6 field goals. Offensively, Cleveland flat out stinks. They are second to last in rushing offense averaging only 81 YPG. Charlie Frye is upgraded to probable which is great for us. Frye has been very bad this year. His passer rating is 69.2 (27th in NFL) and has thrown 12 picks (second only to Big Ben in Pitt). With Atlanta's swarming D and the Browns pitiful offensive line he will definitely throw a couple this Sunday. The Brown's rushing D is one of the worst in the league giving up 142 YPG and will be facing the best rushing O in the NFL in Atlanta. Willie McGinest is listed as questionable and will only give Vick and Dunn more room to run. The one bright spot is Cleveland's passing D that is ranked 6th in the league, but with Vick coming off a bad game in Detroit he will expose that D.
Atlanta is coming off a road loss to Detroit after having a couple of big wins. We see them bouncing back big this week! Atlanta won't find it difficult to score on the Browns at home where they average 25 PPG. Atlanta is averaging 205 (wow!) YPG rushing and will eat up the clock and the Browns simultaneously. Vick never has stellar numbers, but bottom line he is a winner and the scariest player in the NFL. On D Atlanta is an average football team, giving up 100 YPG rushing and 243 YPG passing. But, with the Brown's awful offense we don't foresee any problems with the Falcon's stopping them. There are 4 trends against Cleveland for their poor rushing game, including an 82% trend. Hotlanta!
Cleveland 17 Atlanta 13
The Falcons actually outgained the Browns by over 100 yards, but the Browns pulled out the upset victory. It didn't help that Atlanta had 3 turnovers. Vick looked bad completing 16-of-40 passes for 197 yards with 2 picks. The Browns...Superbowl XLII champs!
Jacksonville (-10 1/2) vs. Houston
Pick: Jacksonville
Houston is coming off a tough game after almost upsetting the Giants last week. The Texans have 2 victories this year one of which they whomped the Jags 27-7 week 7. Revenge time! Houston's rushing offense is pitiful averaging 87 YPG (28th in NFL). Carr has had a decent year but taking a closer look is ranked 30th in yards/pass averaging 8.95. Houston's D straight up stinks. They give up 350 yards/game (28th in NFL) and 24.5 points/game. They are ranked 25th and 23rd in the league in rushing and passing, respectively. The Texans are playing in their third straight road game and will be coming in beat up. Jacksonville is schizophrenic this year, but we believe they will step it up with Garrard at the helm this week. Last time these two team met Leftwich was hobbling around like a 70 year-old man. Jax has been killing teams rushing the ball averaging 135 yards/game (6th in NFL). Their passing game has been struggling (169 yards/game) but will pick up against a sorry Texan D. There are 5 NFL trends going against the Texans for their poor rushing offense. The byeweekpicks supersystem had the Jags as 16 point favorite.
Houston 13 Jax 10
Is Jax gutless or what? Can't beat the Texans once this year. Don't think you can win with 4 int's in a game...ugly! Enough said.
Oakland (+9) vs. Denver
Pick: Oakland
WINNER
Denver is a very tough team, but are they good enough to be a 9 point divisional road favorite? We don't think so. Denver is coming off a tough road win against Pittsburgh and now face an Oakland team that they defeated 13-3 earlier this year. Denver has one of the best running games in the league (3rd) but Jake "the snake" has struggle this year and the Broncos are ranked 28th in passing O averaging only 164 YPG. Defensively Denver does not give up many points, but give up 230 YPG against the pass. This is a look ahead game for the Broncos as they face divisional foe San Diego next week.
Oakland's offense is b
