This was a great year for Bye Week Picks. After a very rough start I made a great comeback to have another profitable season. After week 8 Bye Week Picks was 12-17-1 and -3.2 units. Since that point I was 30-10-1 to finish the season at 42-27-2 (61%) and +14.7 units. If you bet 6% of your bank roll each game (like Bye Week Picks) you have gotten a 90% return on your money, nearly doubling your investment in just 21 weeks! My Super System did very well this year going 41-22 (65%). To cap off the season I had a winner on the N.Y. Giants plus the points and on the money line. I hope you enjoyed my analysis and picks and I will work hard on the off season to come back with a bigger 2008 season!
4* Best Bets
2006-2007 Season Review
Byeweekpicks had a very profitable year hitting 57% of our picks and going 10-6 (63%) on our best bets. Our personal regular season record was 31-21-3 (60%), but what makes the Hilton Contest so tough is that you are forced to take five games and you must have a little luck when you are picking two games a week that you don't like (and we just didn't have luck this year). The postseason was profitable as well, as we went 4-2 including a Top Pick (3*) winner on the Colts in the Super Bowl. It was a great season and we hope you made some money following some of our picks and enjoyed our information. Byeweekpicks has worked hard in the offseason to study our trends and our supersystem to come back with an even bigger year in 2007-2008.
First of all, Byeweekpicks is not a "tout service" trying to sell you picks. My goal is to provide you with weekly NFL picks including detailed analysis of these games. I focus only on the NFL because to master handicapping you have to concentrate on one area. You will never hear Byeweekpicks say "lock of the year" or "guaranteed" because there is no such thing in sports betting. You will also never hear me boast about our record if I cannot prove it. Every game will be posted so you can follow my record throughout the seasons. What I will do is provide you with free quality picks using my extensive research. We do the work so you can take a bye week!
1) In depth comparison of team statistics: This includes yards/play, individual statistics, special teams, turnover ratio, strength of schedule, etc.
2) Byeweekpicks Supersystem: A mathematical system that helps predict what the line should be. If the Vegas odds are different than the line developed (must be greater or equal to a 1.8 difference to be statistically significant) then this is a good play (starts in week 4).
3) NFL Trends: I have a database of hundreds of NFL trends (many which are greater than 80%) that Byeweekpicks has been developing over years. These trends are not retrospective, meaning that I do not go back and look at past statistics to see what fit and then develop the trends (these trends can be misleading). Instead, I first develop the trend based on patterns that I have noticed and study them throughout the years (also known as a prospective study). Many trends date back to the 1980's and are specific to the NFL. I will only provide you with the best team trends, because many times these do not correlate with future events. Teams change, players change, coaches change, but the NFL stays the same.
4) Situational Factors: This comes in to play very often in the NFL. For example if a team is 0-4 and has not covered yet this is a good situational play.
5) Intuition: This is one of the most important factors. I can crunch numbers until I am blue in the face, but I know the league so well that this plays a major role in my picks. So often in the NFL the better team doesn't win, and it's recognizing these patterns that helps me pick winners.
See Money Management Section Above For Details
1*: .66 to .75 Unit
2*: 1 Unit
3*: 1.3-1.5 Units
4*: 1.5-1.66 Units
5*: 2+ Units
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2008-2009 Season Review
This was Byeweekpocks best year to date! Byeweekpicks' final record was 39-24-3 (62%). I was +16.7 units for the year and if you bet 6% of you bankroll per unit you doubled your money this year!!! The year was capped by a win on Arizona in the Super Bowl (now 3-0 on Super Bowl picks). Byeweekpicks has been improving each year and I will continue to work hard in the offseason to perfect my methods.
2009-2010 Season Review
The season didn't start well as I began 1-7 after week 4, but what a comeback! Byeweekpicks finished the year at 37-24-4 for a great 61%. BWP was + 16.3 units on the year meanting that you doubled your bankroll if you wagered 6% per unit..all we did this year was sit back and watch the green grow like the grass wet.
2010-2011 Season Review
Another winning year for Byweekpicks! At 64% this was my best year yet. It makes it my fifth consecutive winning season. We recorded over a 60% return on your investment...wow!
2011-2012 Season Review
I had another great year hitting 58% of my plays. I was 35-25-2, but only +4.4 units because I hit my smaller play but lost a couple larger ones. Still, you would have gotten a return on 20-25% of your original investment. I started slow but finished the year on a 11-2-1 tear incliding my sixth consecutive Super Bowl win! I added strong opinions to my plays this year because there are many games I like, but not strong enough to make a * play. These games fall into 2 categories: a gut play that I like just from knowing the NFL so well, or a strong trend play but the "eye test" tells me it isn't a * play. I personally wager 0.5 units on these play, but it is the player's choice. Another winning year for BWP...see you next season!
BOOOOOOOMMM!!! I had a 3-0 week to bring my record to 4-0 on the year. I had an easy winner on the Chargers plus the points and my two unders (MIA/BUF and NYG/ARI) were definately the right side. Week 3 is looking very juicy also!
To take full advantage of my plays I suggest you follow me on twitter (click tab to the right). Remember how important it is to get the best number. On twitter, I am able to post in real time exactly when I bet games or if I recommend to wait for a better number.
First off, I want to thank everybody that follows my picks! During this offseason I was approached by handicappers to start selling my plays, but I don't think the time is right and I will continue to provide them free at byeweekpicks.com. During the off season I have developed an algorithm to predict the final scores of NFL games. I reviewed the results over the past years, and they are astounding. Even better, I seldomly wagered on totals, but my algorithm predicts totals very accurately. The totals market is more exploitable than sides, and I look to do just that this year. It is going to be a big one!!!
2012-2013 Season Review
What a year!!! I finished the year 41-31-2 (57%) and +8 units. This means if you were wagering 5%/unit your return on your investment is over 40% (show me that in the stock market)! From week 2 through week 12 I was 31-12 (72%). I would have liked to end the regular season better & hit my Super Bowl play, but variance is a inevitable part of sports wagering, which is why I money management is so important. It was my seventh consecutive winning season. My overall record for the last 7 years on the website is 274-185-20 (60%). I saw a few key areas that I can improve on and hope to have an even bigger 2013-14 season! 274-185-20